Huzzah for being done with university, I can starting posting again with some degree of regularity. In an effort to increase my knowledge of the less televised teams I splurged on NBA League Pass for the season. However, watching 12 games on some days quickly put me over my download limit so I had to be a bit more selective in what I viewed. I tuned into the second half of the Memphis-Miami game and I was glad for a few reasons; Miami lost, Rudy Gay had an incredible game-winner over Lebron, and most interestingly, I got to see why OJ Mayo's numbers are down.
For a kid whose game was compared to Kobe Bryant's growing up, he mirrored the Black Mamba again in being very passive, not taking many shots and just looking generally disinterested tonight. This sort of attitude is at odds with a kid who was described as incredibly hard-working prior to his joining the NBA ranks and there are a couple of possible reasons; it could be that Mayo expected Rudy to leave and be given the reins to the team and when this didn't happen it took him down a peg, it could be that Rudy is increasingly establishing himself as their go-to guy and tonight's performance in comparison to Mayo's was telling. This wasn't how it was supposed to be for a guy who dominated the ball his entire career and was a scoring machine at every stop before the NBA.
Like his draft-mate Michael Beasley - who is experiencing a rejuvenation of sorts in Minnesota - a change of scenery might cure what ails him. Wherever he goes, he needs to be the Man. With sharpshooter Xavier Henry waiting in the wings, Mayo doesn't appear to be a long-term part of the Memphis organisation. So let's take a look at where Mayo might be like Mike (Beasley that is) and get a second chance at superstardom.
The primary candidate has to be the Charlotte Bobcats; they are struggling this season, and need a young star to complement their other young pieces. While Captain Jack is manning the 2-guard at the moment, he'll run out of steam sooner or later and Mayo will be given the green light when that happens. Wallace is more of a defensive, energy guy, same can be said for Tyrus Thomas. DJ is a great shooter, but struggles to create for others, so having a player like Mayo who can create his own shot would be a bonus. Being in the East, Mayo's primary threat at the 2-guard spot would be Dwyane Wade, another undersized SG, so he wouldn't be giving up any size defensively - while Joe Johnson might be a struggle, Wallace could match up with him, and Mayo could guard the less offensively gifted Marvin Williams. Henderson is clearly not the solution long term as he has struggled to be productive outside of the Summer League.
Another possible team would be the San Antonio Spurs; they are extremely well coached, and Manu is going to have an increasingly decreased role in the next few years, just as Mayo enters his prime. However, Ginobili and Mayo could form a potent back-court, with Manu handling more of the playmaking while leaving Mayo to be a scorer. Tim Duncan is on the way out and they will need someone to pair with Tiago Splitter, Tony Parker and DeJuan Blair for the Spurs to stay relevant. Mayo could be that guy to bring them into their next phase of existence. Parker is already struggling with injury before hitting 30, and George Hill is perfectly capable of playing the point, so no problems there either, and Mayo will be 25 when Manu's extension runs out.
The last team I'll mention here, though there are a number of others, is the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers have always managed to find ways to pick up star players, and of all of these scenarios, this strikes me as the most likely. Kobe has a LOT of mileage on him at the moment, and I can't see him lasting more than three years or so. Shannon Brown isn't a long-term answer, and should always be a bench guy for the Lakers. Mayo would provide a running mate to Pau Gasol until he's ready to take over the team himself, and who knows, maybe Phil Jackson will retire and come back in a few years to guide the next young SG star. Mayo could even play the point in Jackson's system, as the triangle needs great shooting more than anything from the point position. Whatever the coaching staff, it's hard not to think that Mayo would be a good fit in Hell-ay.
As I said, Mayo has been compared to Kobe before, and he might just break out after a few sub-par seasons. Whether it's in LA or elsewhere, it's too late to give up on OJ Mayo.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
Great Oden's Raven!
Awesome line from Anchorman aside, Greg Oden is the focus of this one. It's been a horrible week for the Blazers with franchise player Brandon Roy found to have no meniscus left in either knee - meaning it's bone on bone - and no way to fix it, followed up more recently by Greg Oden's newfound need for microfracture surgery. Say goodbye to the 10-11 season, and suddenly the decision to allow Oden to be a RFA isn't such a bad one.
By all accounts, the fans in Portland have had enough of this immensely talented C teasing them with flashes of brilliance and with Roy never to be the same again, the best thing for the Blazers to do is to re-adjust from "win-now" mode and start again. Which means more than saying goodbye to the 10-11 season, but likely the Blazers as an organisation. While this sucks for Portland fans who were very much on the cusp of challenging for a title if they could just get healthy, what happens to Oden now? Given how few games he has played until this point he can likely be had for a bargain and he's just the sort of low-risk (money-wise), high-reward player who can alter the course of a franchise.
The first thing I'll say is that Oden could very well re-sign with the Blazers for a significantly lower price than they anticipated. However, there are enough teams desperate enough - particularly in the West - looking for that length to compete with the Lakers' size and exploit Miami's weakness inside that makes this scenario unlikely.
So let's take a look at the possible suitors...
Denver Nuggets;
Melo has made it clear that he wants to be closer to a championship than he is now or he's gone. With Lebron forming the Miami Thrice in South Beach Anthony had a knee jerk reaction, feeling he can no longer compete with the Nuggets. However, Melo doesn't want to face the same public backlash as Lebron for nothing, so if the Heat don't win this season it might be enough to convince Melo to stay. Assuming the Nuggets manage to keep Melo around they will have a go-to guy and All-World scorer, a veteran PG for at least another couple of seasons, an All-Star calibre PF/C in Nene Hilario, young defender in Arron Afflalo, and good depth off the bench with Smith, Birdman and Ty Lawson. While Nene has done a great job in Denver, he struggles to defend the bigger bodies found at C and would be better served at PF. Enter Greg Oden. He is a legitimate championship calibre C when on the court and with a number of expiring contracts coming off the books this season the Nuggets might be able to outbid other teams for his services. A starting five of Billups, Afflalo, Anthony, Nene and Oden is strong enough to contend with the Lakers, Celtics, Heat and Magic. If a lock-out eventuates, that means more rest time for Oden and hopefully a full rehabilitation once he's out of the hands of the seemingly inept Portland organisation. That team might just be worth Melo sticking around for.
Atlanta Hawks;
The Hawks are being continually abused by Dwight Howard and the Magic. They were still good for 4th in the East until Miami came along and upset their division standing, so they'll need to address their major area of weakness - size and PG play. Hopefully Jeff Teague can make some strides this season but there are enough very talented PGs available in this draft that the Hawks might be able to snag one from beyond the lottery. Cs who can go toe-to-toe with Dwight are a bit rarer, especially when you've just given Joe Johnson a max deal. Luckily, GO will likely be available for a relatively low price, and is only 22 years old, so will have a lot of playing time left in him if he can just get healthy. If it doesn't pan out, provided they don't overpay for him then no harm done. If it does, then Teague, Johnson, Smith, Horford and Oden would be a starting five capable of matching any in the L. Having Marvin Williams and Jordan Crawford (unlikely Jamal sticks around) coming off the bench means that they have the depth to compete too.
Boston Celtics;
Okay, being a Celtics fan, maybe I'm a little biased, but the Cs need to start looking past the Boston Three Party to what the team will look like in two years. Shaq and Ray Allen are almost definitely going to retire by then, Garnett might just follow, and Pierce isn't going to be capable of carrying the franchise on his back like he used to. Which leaves Rondo as their franchise player and Big Baby Davis as probably their third option. Huh. However, Avery Bradley is a lock-down defender, and he and Rondo could form the best defensive back-court in the NBA. Davis is capable of playing big minutes, and is a proven playoff performer too. Plus, Pierce will still be a competent closer and perimeter threat. The thing that doesn't add up is Kendrick Perkins. Don't get me wrong, Perk is a great fit for this current team, but he is too offensively limited to survive with the Celtics post-Big 3. Oden would provide a more offensively capable Centre who can bang inside with the opposing bigs in the East. Given that Oden won't be needed for another season or two, he won't be rushed back and should hopefully be able to fully recover. Oh, and don't worry about Perkins, he'll find a home somewhere, because defensive Cs as good as he is don't come along every day.
So there you have it, three (or four I guess) possible futures for Greg Oden. Whatever happens, let's just hope he spends a lot less time in a suit, and a lot more time in an NBA uniform.
Cheers.
By all accounts, the fans in Portland have had enough of this immensely talented C teasing them with flashes of brilliance and with Roy never to be the same again, the best thing for the Blazers to do is to re-adjust from "win-now" mode and start again. Which means more than saying goodbye to the 10-11 season, but likely the Blazers as an organisation. While this sucks for Portland fans who were very much on the cusp of challenging for a title if they could just get healthy, what happens to Oden now? Given how few games he has played until this point he can likely be had for a bargain and he's just the sort of low-risk (money-wise), high-reward player who can alter the course of a franchise.
The first thing I'll say is that Oden could very well re-sign with the Blazers for a significantly lower price than they anticipated. However, there are enough teams desperate enough - particularly in the West - looking for that length to compete with the Lakers' size and exploit Miami's weakness inside that makes this scenario unlikely.
So let's take a look at the possible suitors...
Denver Nuggets;
Melo has made it clear that he wants to be closer to a championship than he is now or he's gone. With Lebron forming the Miami Thrice in South Beach Anthony had a knee jerk reaction, feeling he can no longer compete with the Nuggets. However, Melo doesn't want to face the same public backlash as Lebron for nothing, so if the Heat don't win this season it might be enough to convince Melo to stay. Assuming the Nuggets manage to keep Melo around they will have a go-to guy and All-World scorer, a veteran PG for at least another couple of seasons, an All-Star calibre PF/C in Nene Hilario, young defender in Arron Afflalo, and good depth off the bench with Smith, Birdman and Ty Lawson. While Nene has done a great job in Denver, he struggles to defend the bigger bodies found at C and would be better served at PF. Enter Greg Oden. He is a legitimate championship calibre C when on the court and with a number of expiring contracts coming off the books this season the Nuggets might be able to outbid other teams for his services. A starting five of Billups, Afflalo, Anthony, Nene and Oden is strong enough to contend with the Lakers, Celtics, Heat and Magic. If a lock-out eventuates, that means more rest time for Oden and hopefully a full rehabilitation once he's out of the hands of the seemingly inept Portland organisation. That team might just be worth Melo sticking around for.
Atlanta Hawks;
The Hawks are being continually abused by Dwight Howard and the Magic. They were still good for 4th in the East until Miami came along and upset their division standing, so they'll need to address their major area of weakness - size and PG play. Hopefully Jeff Teague can make some strides this season but there are enough very talented PGs available in this draft that the Hawks might be able to snag one from beyond the lottery. Cs who can go toe-to-toe with Dwight are a bit rarer, especially when you've just given Joe Johnson a max deal. Luckily, GO will likely be available for a relatively low price, and is only 22 years old, so will have a lot of playing time left in him if he can just get healthy. If it doesn't pan out, provided they don't overpay for him then no harm done. If it does, then Teague, Johnson, Smith, Horford and Oden would be a starting five capable of matching any in the L. Having Marvin Williams and Jordan Crawford (unlikely Jamal sticks around) coming off the bench means that they have the depth to compete too.
Boston Celtics;
Okay, being a Celtics fan, maybe I'm a little biased, but the Cs need to start looking past the Boston Three Party to what the team will look like in two years. Shaq and Ray Allen are almost definitely going to retire by then, Garnett might just follow, and Pierce isn't going to be capable of carrying the franchise on his back like he used to. Which leaves Rondo as their franchise player and Big Baby Davis as probably their third option. Huh. However, Avery Bradley is a lock-down defender, and he and Rondo could form the best defensive back-court in the NBA. Davis is capable of playing big minutes, and is a proven playoff performer too. Plus, Pierce will still be a competent closer and perimeter threat. The thing that doesn't add up is Kendrick Perkins. Don't get me wrong, Perk is a great fit for this current team, but he is too offensively limited to survive with the Celtics post-Big 3. Oden would provide a more offensively capable Centre who can bang inside with the opposing bigs in the East. Given that Oden won't be needed for another season or two, he won't be rushed back and should hopefully be able to fully recover. Oh, and don't worry about Perkins, he'll find a home somewhere, because defensive Cs as good as he is don't come along every day.
So there you have it, three (or four I guess) possible futures for Greg Oden. Whatever happens, let's just hope he spends a lot less time in a suit, and a lot more time in an NBA uniform.
Cheers.
Monday, November 8, 2010
If it ain't broke don't fix it - why Chris Paul's Hornets beat the Heat
Going to keep this one relatively short and to the point. But before I get into it, just a quick announcement; It's a Hardwood Life is now on Twitter at http://twitter.com/#!/hardwoodlife and can be found on Facebook also, just search "It's a Hardwood Life" and become a fan!
Okay, so I won't waste any time with the obvious stuff about this being a huge upset and the Hornets being hot right now and all that jazz. In a nutshell, this was a clash of team-building philosophy. The Hornets' approach is the classic franchise player model, which I affectionately refer to as the Batman and Robin strategy. Essentially, you take one franchise player - Chris Paul in this case - give him a sidekick - David West - and fill the rest of the roster with role players that play to Batman's strengths. The benefits of this approach are that there is a clear leadership hierarchy, the star player can play to his full capacity and these are especially beneficial in the fourth quarters of close games where Batman traditionally takes over. While the Hornets haven't had huge success just yet, they won 56 games under this model recently and were good for number 2 seed in the West. Other teams using this model have been greatly successful in recent times though; Jordan's Bulls, Hakeem the Dream's Rockets, Shaq's Lakers, Duncan's Spurs and Kobe's Lakers. All of these teams won multiple championships. The Hornets-Heat game highlighted the strengths of the Batman and Robin strategy; they came out firing on all cylinders, knowing they couldn't rely on star-power, and Batman made the right decisions to secure the win when it got close.
Conversely, the Heat performance highlighted the problems with the fantasy team or as I call it, the Avengers approach, where a group of superheroes in their own right come together to fight evil (or win basketball games in this case); they can underestimate their opponents and expect star-power to see them through, the star players can get confused as to when to go full bore, and there was no clear green light given to any particular star which in this case lead to Eddie House taking a contested last shot. I think the best way for me to explain why the Heat approach of taking superstar players just as they are beginning to peak isn't ideal is by drawing comparisons to the Heat's immediate predecessors in Big Three land; the Boston Celtics. While the Heat will probably win a championship sooner or later, the Celtics have actually done it, so we know their way worked. What they did was assemble a trio of franchise players who were no longer capable of bearing the weight of an entire team on their backs. This might seem like a worse decision than what the Heat did, and heck, if Miami go on to win six straight titles then I'll eat these words, but I think the age of the Celtics stars played a big role in their success. There was no question of when to go 100% for these three because it took everything they had left in the tank to compete with younger, more capable franchise players they were up against. There was no question of underestimating opponents for the Boston Three Party because their careers were winding down and they couldn't take anything for granted, it was quite literally now or never. This is the problems facing the Miami Heat; how can two Batman's co-exist in Gotham City? Which one stops the Joker (or should that be Ironman after the Marvel ESPN covers)? While the Heat are going to be a smothering defensive team, the offensive end is going to remain a problem in crunch time unless Lebron takes a back-seat, because let's face it, Wade isn't going to give up his own turf to anybody, even if that anybody just so happens to be the defending two-time MVP.
Personally, I'm of the opinion that if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Seeing Chris Paul take a team consisting of overachievers (West, Thornton, Belinelli), and underachievers (Ariza, Okafur) and elevating them beyond the sum of their parts was a special moment because it exceeded expectations. Watching a team with so much talent that the whole is actually less than the sum of its parts isn't going to be fun to watch, because they will either meet expectations or disappoint; when you have the most talented roster on paper in the Association, exceeding expectations isn't really an option.
Cheers.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Free *insert player name*!
Freedom. The word can mean a lot of things to a lot of people, but like money, stress and happiness it's all relative. For some NBA players, freedom is getting a chance to show their talents, when they are stuck in a bad situation by a team. Now, being from Australia I don't have a geographical attachment to any particular team, so I support teams with players I like, and being a player's fan this sort of misuse of talented individuals frustrates me to no end. So let's take a look at some players who are trapped (on the bench in most cases), and a few success stories who made it out.
Stuck;
Any readers (I know there are a few) who've made it this far, if there's a player somewhere in the L you think should be starting or 6th man then drop a comment and tell me about it.
Cheers, Mark.
Stuck;
- Marcin Gortat:
I'll start off with a situation that has received a bit of publicity lately, with our large Polish friend demanding more minutes and an increased role in Orlando. He copped a bit of criticism because he's playing behind Dwight Howard, but Gortat tried to escape to Dallas as a restricted free agent and Orlando kept him here. Which quite frankly, sucks. He's young, versatile, can run the floor and could help a number of teams in need of a C. Ideal fits for Gortat would be Atlanta or Oklahoma City. The Hawks have Horford playing out of position at the 5 and Gortat would solve that problem. As far as OKC is concerned, Green is a great player, but is really a SF, and Gortat is better than any of the Cs currently on their roster. This would also allow Ibaka to slide over to the PF spot. A trade of Green for Gortat would actually help both players. - Xavier Henry:
Playing behind OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay in Memphis for the forseeable future, Henry isn't going to be getting a starting nod anytime soon. He was impressive in pre-season and while it is only his rookie year he is good enough to be a starting 2-guard in the L. A few teams that could use a player like Henry are Charlotte, Washington, Sacramento. He would serve under Stephen Jackson for a few years and get the starting nod afterwards. A core of Augustine, Henry, Wallace and Thomas could make noise in a few years. Henry, Cousins, Casspi, Landry and of course Evans would be a force to be reckoned with if given time to develop. For the Wizards, Henry could serve as the long-term replacement for Gilbert Arenas and given how injury prone Hibachi is would get plenty of playing time in the short term. - Rudy Fernandez:
I couldn't write an article on underused players and not mention Fernandez. His much publicized plea for freedom was denied by Portland, who instead traded Bayless to free up more playing time. While that was a nice gesture, it isn't enough for a player of Rudy's caliber. He could easily start in plenty of teams in the L, but in Portland he's playing behind one of the L's best starting back-courts in Miller and Roy. Like Henry, Fernandez would be the ideal replacement for an ageing Stephen Jackson in Charlotte, or a sharpshooting running mate for Tyreke Evans in Sactown. That said, the place most suited for Fernandez is Chicago. Fernandez would provide a ranged threat, a playmaker to let Rose be more of a scoring threat and could also back him up at the point. They are starting Keith Bogans for god's sake! While the Bulls have a shooter in Korver, he is somewhat one-dimensional, whereas Rudy is a versatile player who is also a great crunch time player. Thus far this season Rudy has been great when motivated, but all the playing time in the world won't be enough for him if it's off the bench.
- Carl Landry:
Is there a better feel-good story than Landry's? Stuck playing behind Scola in a crowded Houston frontcourt he gets shipped over to Sacramento and is rewarded with the starting spot and a chance to show off his refined post skills. He strikes me as a similar player to David West; goes under the radar but is consistently productive. The good news is Sactown don't have anyone who can push him for the starting nod for the foreseeable future, so he has plenty of time to get comfortable and serve as a veteran leader on this Kings team for the next three years at least (when he hits the dreaded 30). - Darren Collison:
The four year UCLA point guard was given an opportunity to shine when this generation's point god Chris Paul went down with a near season-ending injury and he impressed so much that Indiana traded their starting power forward to acquire him in a four-way deal. He has been given the reins of the team and along with a much improved Roy Hibbert and one-time All-Star Danny Granger has the Pacers sitting at 3rd in the East with a 2-1 record. Indiana is a dark horse to make the playoffs and Collison is in the perfect situation as the floor general of a young, improving team with a bright future. - Martell Webster/Travis Outlaw:
It's tough being a SF in Portland. The higher-ups are set on Batum as their starting 3 and Coach McMillan uses 3s as spot up shooters and not much else. Both of these players are young, talented and just escaped their bench situations. Outlaw was signed to a multi-year deal and is starting at the small forward for the Nets. Webster was traded to Minnesota and is currently injured, but will play his way into the starting shooting guard spot by season's end as a leader on a very young Timberwolves unit.
Any readers (I know there are a few) who've made it this far, if there's a player somewhere in the L you think should be starting or 6th man then drop a comment and tell me about it.
Cheers, Mark.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Give Me(lo) a break!
Blame it on Scottie Pippen. Before Pippen came along Dominique Wilkins was arguably the prototypical small forward; a tremendous scoring machine, able to dunk, drive or shoot. Then Pippen and Jordan started winning championships with Pippen playing what was called the "point-forward" position. All of a sudden, we had a new definition of a great SF. He not only had to score, but he had to defend tenaciously, and carry some of the ball-handling load as well. Sounds like a good thing right? So what are we blaming Pippen for exactly...
Well, we are blaming Pippen for the disrespect given to Carmelo Anthony simply because he's more Wilkins than Pippen. It's a known fact that Melo isn't the greatest defender, and his playmaking abilities aren't anything to write home about; which would be a big deal if he was a guard. But see here's the thing, contrary to latest trends, it's still acceptable for a small forward to simply be a scoring machine who can do other things, but doesn't excel at them. I'm not just talking about solid starters, I'm talking superstars. Which despite his recent off court dramas, is still a category Melo belongs to. Superstar, franchise player, whatever you want to call it, he's it.
Now, a recent article on SLAMonline waxed lyrical about how Melo wasn't in fact a franchise player because he wouldn't be able to lead a team to a championship in the current NBA. Before I go on, I should probably mention the other reason why Melo doesn't get the respect he deserves; he has always been in the shadow of Lebron James, who is almost Pippen 2.0; he scores, he defends and he is considered one of the best passers in the game by many (myself excluded). Now, if Lebron is the embodiment of the Pippen-inspired point-forward, he is a franchise player who could lead a team to a championship on his own back right? He has none of Carmelo's shortcomings and matches or surpasses Melo in strengths.
But wait. He didn't win that championship ring did he? In seven years he got to the Finals once in what can only be called a down year for the NBA if that Cavaliers team made it so far. Now, since that Finals appearance Lebron's team had the best record in the NBA twice in a row. Is this what it means to be a franchise player? Not according to the aforementioned SLAMonline article, because he didn't win a championship. Yet somehow, Lebron is in that class and Melo isn't. Now, this isn't a personal attack on Myles Brown, just an examination of the thought process that puts Lebron in a class where championships are the key to being a franchise player and leaves Melo out in the cold. This isn't just the thinking of Myles, many people would call Lebron a player who could lead you to a championship and say Melo doesn't have that franchise quality.
However, Melo has just hit his prime in the past couple of seasons, and finally got the running mate he needed in Chauncey Billups. In the 08-09 season he took the Nuggets to the WCF and the Lakers to Game 6. That's one more game than the Eastern Conference champs Orlando managed to squeeze out of the eventual NBA champions. The same Orlando Magic who upset the Cavaliers the year they had home court advantage and the best record in the League. It says a little something about the difference in strength between the two conferences; now pause and remember Melo has been playing there his whole career. Yes, he never made it to the Finals, but in his path have been the great Spurs teams of the 00s, the Lakers of the past couple of years and a myriad of other tough outs. Now consider what Melo did last year; he and his squad struggled with injuries, and they were up against a tough Jazz team who were extremely well coached without George Karl, the mastermind behind that WCF appearance in 08-09, who was battling cancer at the time. In those circumstances is it any surprise that Melo took a step back? Losing your head coach is no small thing, especially midway through the season. However, a lot of people have written off both Carmelo Anthony as a championship caliber first option and the Nuggets as contenders - including, it seems, Carmelo himself. Look at James' performance in the playoffs, his Cavaliers dropped a game to the severely overmatched Chicago Bulls, and when Boston got their juices flowing he couldn't dominate the game the way a franchise player is expected to. We all know what happened since then; Lebron bailed and teamed up with one of only two of the five "franchise players" to have actually won a championship. So tell me then, why is it that Lebron is still considered a franchise player, when he clearly couldn't lead a team to a championship, yet Melo, who has had similar achievements and been held back by things beyond his control (injuries to teammates, cancer) is all of a sudden out of the franchise player loop?
Here is a list of players who to my mind are without question franchise players even though they may not have won championships;
Dominique Wilkins
Patrick Ewing
Charles Barkley
Allen Iverson
Elgin Baylor
Just look at that list; we are talking first-ballot Hall of Famers here, yet none of them reached the very top. So why is it then that they can be called franchise players without winning the championship? Because here's the thing; there's only one trophy each year, and there are going to be other franchise players to beat out, every year. So when you think about who can be considered a franchise player, don't just think about who has actually won a championship, but who can get you within reach; taking the 08-09 LA Lakers to six games in the WCF is good enough for me, especially when they had the League's ultimate franchise player Kobe Bryant on their team.
So why, in spite of all this is Melo discriminated against really? Blame it on Pippen. Melo is discriminated against because like Wilkins, he is happy to leave the point to the guards.
Well, we are blaming Pippen for the disrespect given to Carmelo Anthony simply because he's more Wilkins than Pippen. It's a known fact that Melo isn't the greatest defender, and his playmaking abilities aren't anything to write home about; which would be a big deal if he was a guard. But see here's the thing, contrary to latest trends, it's still acceptable for a small forward to simply be a scoring machine who can do other things, but doesn't excel at them. I'm not just talking about solid starters, I'm talking superstars. Which despite his recent off court dramas, is still a category Melo belongs to. Superstar, franchise player, whatever you want to call it, he's it.
Now, a recent article on SLAMonline waxed lyrical about how Melo wasn't in fact a franchise player because he wouldn't be able to lead a team to a championship in the current NBA. Before I go on, I should probably mention the other reason why Melo doesn't get the respect he deserves; he has always been in the shadow of Lebron James, who is almost Pippen 2.0; he scores, he defends and he is considered one of the best passers in the game by many (myself excluded). Now, if Lebron is the embodiment of the Pippen-inspired point-forward, he is a franchise player who could lead a team to a championship on his own back right? He has none of Carmelo's shortcomings and matches or surpasses Melo in strengths.
But wait. He didn't win that championship ring did he? In seven years he got to the Finals once in what can only be called a down year for the NBA if that Cavaliers team made it so far. Now, since that Finals appearance Lebron's team had the best record in the NBA twice in a row. Is this what it means to be a franchise player? Not according to the aforementioned SLAMonline article, because he didn't win a championship. Yet somehow, Lebron is in that class and Melo isn't. Now, this isn't a personal attack on Myles Brown, just an examination of the thought process that puts Lebron in a class where championships are the key to being a franchise player and leaves Melo out in the cold. This isn't just the thinking of Myles, many people would call Lebron a player who could lead you to a championship and say Melo doesn't have that franchise quality.
However, Melo has just hit his prime in the past couple of seasons, and finally got the running mate he needed in Chauncey Billups. In the 08-09 season he took the Nuggets to the WCF and the Lakers to Game 6. That's one more game than the Eastern Conference champs Orlando managed to squeeze out of the eventual NBA champions. The same Orlando Magic who upset the Cavaliers the year they had home court advantage and the best record in the League. It says a little something about the difference in strength between the two conferences; now pause and remember Melo has been playing there his whole career. Yes, he never made it to the Finals, but in his path have been the great Spurs teams of the 00s, the Lakers of the past couple of years and a myriad of other tough outs. Now consider what Melo did last year; he and his squad struggled with injuries, and they were up against a tough Jazz team who were extremely well coached without George Karl, the mastermind behind that WCF appearance in 08-09, who was battling cancer at the time. In those circumstances is it any surprise that Melo took a step back? Losing your head coach is no small thing, especially midway through the season. However, a lot of people have written off both Carmelo Anthony as a championship caliber first option and the Nuggets as contenders - including, it seems, Carmelo himself. Look at James' performance in the playoffs, his Cavaliers dropped a game to the severely overmatched Chicago Bulls, and when Boston got their juices flowing he couldn't dominate the game the way a franchise player is expected to. We all know what happened since then; Lebron bailed and teamed up with one of only two of the five "franchise players" to have actually won a championship. So tell me then, why is it that Lebron is still considered a franchise player, when he clearly couldn't lead a team to a championship, yet Melo, who has had similar achievements and been held back by things beyond his control (injuries to teammates, cancer) is all of a sudden out of the franchise player loop?
Here is a list of players who to my mind are without question franchise players even though they may not have won championships;
Dominique Wilkins
Patrick Ewing
Charles Barkley
Allen Iverson
Elgin Baylor
Just look at that list; we are talking first-ballot Hall of Famers here, yet none of them reached the very top. So why is it then that they can be called franchise players without winning the championship? Because here's the thing; there's only one trophy each year, and there are going to be other franchise players to beat out, every year. So when you think about who can be considered a franchise player, don't just think about who has actually won a championship, but who can get you within reach; taking the 08-09 LA Lakers to six games in the WCF is good enough for me, especially when they had the League's ultimate franchise player Kobe Bryant on their team.
So why, in spite of all this is Melo discriminated against really? Blame it on Pippen. Melo is discriminated against because like Wilkins, he is happy to leave the point to the guards.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
The big one... MVP
So as it turns out, pre-season predictions just aren't as fun to write as ranting about any idea that pops into my head. So let's just get the last one I'm going to do before resuming your regularly scheduled randomness.
Before I get into specifics I'll talk about how I view the MVP award. Winning it takes more than being the best player in the League when all is said and done; you need to play enough games, you need the ball in your hands enough, you need to be part of a winning team and you need to be the unquestioned best player on your own team. There are other factors like dominating both ends, but those are just bonuses really (see Steve Nash). So here I go, trying to explain why these seven players meet these criteria and could be in with a shot to win the coveted award - that's right, even the honourable mentions get an explanation!
Honourable mention: Lebron James
Now, a lot of you will probably stop reading right now and never view this little site again. By all means, go ahead, but if you stick around I might just give you something to think about. Rather than list why Lebron could win it, I'll try to explain why he drops this low. There are a number of reasons, chief amongst them is the dramatic shift in freedom from what he enjoyed in Cleveland; he will have to share the ball with Dwyane Wade at least half the time and Chris Bosh is going to want the rock a little too. But of course, that's obvious; less ball-dominance means lower stats.
Another reason is responsibility; with the Cavs, he was clearly their go-to guy, but Wade remains the guy who should be taking the shots in the closing minutes and will have the greatest influence on the outcome of close games. However, I'll talk more about this when I get to Wade.
The final reason Lebron drops this low is a combination of fatigue and scrutiny; he's already won it twice, and it can be tough to remain at the top for so long without people getting a little resentful and wanting a change of pace. It doesn't help when you've made a decision many people think will destroy the game. Which leads to increased scrutiny; the shine is off the apple and people will be picking apart the weakness in his game, and believe me, they are there; his jump-shot remains inconsistent and he doesn't play particularly well off the ball, which is something he'll have to get used to.
When you put these three things together you have a player who will take a backward step in production, combined with increased scrutiny and add learning a new system to top it all off, it really isn't such a stretch to make him an honourable mention. I hate having to write so much on Lebron, but alas, it had to be done.
Honourable Mention: Brandon Roy
Roy has always been a personal favourite of mine; hard-working player wins ROY and proves the doubters wrong by being an All-Star every season since - that's special by any definition. However, he's almost criminally underrated as a legit MVP candidate. The thing holding him back is his body, if he could just stay on the court a whole season he would make a better case. That said, if he can play 70+ games this year, he could be a real dark-horse to win it. With Dwyane Wade and Lebron James teaming up, the incumbent winner's chances have taken a big hit and we know Kobe doesn't dominate the regular season anymore.
However, I don't want to sell Roy short by making this a circumstantial season; he has an offensive game with really no weakness and is also a gifted playmaker with a reputation for excelling in crunch time. After a nightmare year last season for Portland, the Blazers are looking to bounce back in a big way. They have a real shot at a second or third seed in the West if they are healthy and Roy is a big part of that. Now take a look back at the criteria I gave at the start of this post and see how many boxes Roy checks... you'll find Roy checks all the boxes.
5. Kobe Bryant
Now, I just said that Kobe doesn't tend to dominate the regular season, but after finally getting the surgery he needed to fix lingering injuries, a fresh Kobe Byrant could be the regular season terror of old. We all know how good he is, and with a potential meeting with the Miami Heat in the Finals waiting, the Lakers should be trying to get homecourt advantage which only adds to Kobe's chances of winning the award. He won't need to dominate statistically, but if he can be in the top five in scoring and the Lakers win the West, this could be Kobe's chance to get a second award.
If not? He'll just settle for another ring and Finals MVP.
4. Chris Paul
Having just undergone six months recovery from an injury I know firsthand how much that can motivate and fuel you to make a statement when you return. In the long hours of rehab work and watching your team struggle and ultimately fail from the sidelines, you realise how much you love the game, just what it means to you. Now, imagine you also have to endure your draft class rival taking the crown of world's best point guard while you're away. Factor in the drama surrounding his toast to Carmelo this summer and his subsequent recommitment to the city which birthed his NBA career and you'll have a healthy, incredibly talented Chris Paul playing with a chip on his shoulder.
However, team success is important too, which is probably the only thing holding him back. That said, the Hornets made some good acquisitions in Trevor Ariza and Belinelli. With a new coach and a fresh outlook, the 2010-11 season could and should see big things for Paul and the Hornets. A top six seed in the West with a squad like this gives Paul a real shot at winning his first MVP.
3. Dwyane Wade
Yeah, you read correctly. Contrary to popular belief, having James on his team will help, not hinder, his chances of being regular season MVP. Last season, Wade had to take a step back in the regular season to give his teammates a chance to shine but with number 1 and 6 in a Heat uniform Wade will be free from such concerns, rather, he'll be looking to put his stamp on the team and emphatically deny any attempts by the media or others to call it Lebron's team.
Wade is an unstoppable offensive force, one of the most dynamic slashers since the guy who supplies his shoes was in the League. He's no slouch on D either, and should relish the chance to exert more energy on the defensive end without such a heavy offensive burden. As far as getting the record is concerned, I don't think that is going to be a concern.
Ever since Lebron made his decision, there has been a lot of talk about their being Jordan and Pippen 2.0. The comparison is a good one, but people are confused about who is who. If Wade can stay healthy, I predict by season's end people will realise that Wade is the Jordan of this partnership and he will remind the world why he was 2006 Finals MVP and the only member of the Miami 3 with a ring.
2. Carmelo Anthony
Last season, Melo started off on fire, but an early injury slowed him down. If he can avoid a similar fate this season he will earn this high a ranking in the MVP rankings. Already considered a better clutch player and scorer than Lebron, he is in a contract year and don't underestimate the importance of Coach Karl being back on the sidelines. Expect Melo to use basketball as his release from the off-court drama surrounding possible trades and whatever else is bugging him. I believe he'll stick around in Denver for the season and simply leave in free agency; if it weren't for injuries and illness striking Karl the Nuggets were good enough to be at least 3rd seed in the West last season, and nothing has changed except that Billups has just won a world championship and will be hunting for that same feeling again.
This season is both Melo's chance to put himself back in the conversation as Lebron's rival and also one big audition for the many teams eagerly pursuing his services.
1. Kevin Durant
You all saw it coming, and with good reason. Lebron is sharing the limelight finally, Kobe is a year older and Durant just won a world championship with Team USA. The Thunder have an impressive young core and should only improve on last year's surprise 50-win season.
But let's focus on Durant; the kid is already amongst the best shooters in the L and is a physical freak with a 7'5" wingspan and the handle of a guard. With the confidence he gained in the WC, he should improve on his fourth quarter play, having realised how important it is for a team to have a designated go-to guy.
However, despite his success he remains humble and is as hard-working as they come. That's a potent mix for a player who still hasn't reached his peak.
Unless something goes drastically wrong, Durant will be the regular season MVP. Book it.
So there you have it, a wrap up of all the pre-season predictions. Thank Christ. Just realised I wrote the most on Lebron, which is lame, but ultimately necessary. Ah well.
This will be my last post until the regular season starts. See you all then!
Before I get into specifics I'll talk about how I view the MVP award. Winning it takes more than being the best player in the League when all is said and done; you need to play enough games, you need the ball in your hands enough, you need to be part of a winning team and you need to be the unquestioned best player on your own team. There are other factors like dominating both ends, but those are just bonuses really (see Steve Nash). So here I go, trying to explain why these seven players meet these criteria and could be in with a shot to win the coveted award - that's right, even the honourable mentions get an explanation!
Honourable mention: Lebron James
Now, a lot of you will probably stop reading right now and never view this little site again. By all means, go ahead, but if you stick around I might just give you something to think about. Rather than list why Lebron could win it, I'll try to explain why he drops this low. There are a number of reasons, chief amongst them is the dramatic shift in freedom from what he enjoyed in Cleveland; he will have to share the ball with Dwyane Wade at least half the time and Chris Bosh is going to want the rock a little too. But of course, that's obvious; less ball-dominance means lower stats.
Another reason is responsibility; with the Cavs, he was clearly their go-to guy, but Wade remains the guy who should be taking the shots in the closing minutes and will have the greatest influence on the outcome of close games. However, I'll talk more about this when I get to Wade.
The final reason Lebron drops this low is a combination of fatigue and scrutiny; he's already won it twice, and it can be tough to remain at the top for so long without people getting a little resentful and wanting a change of pace. It doesn't help when you've made a decision many people think will destroy the game. Which leads to increased scrutiny; the shine is off the apple and people will be picking apart the weakness in his game, and believe me, they are there; his jump-shot remains inconsistent and he doesn't play particularly well off the ball, which is something he'll have to get used to.
When you put these three things together you have a player who will take a backward step in production, combined with increased scrutiny and add learning a new system to top it all off, it really isn't such a stretch to make him an honourable mention. I hate having to write so much on Lebron, but alas, it had to be done.
Honourable Mention: Brandon Roy
Roy has always been a personal favourite of mine; hard-working player wins ROY and proves the doubters wrong by being an All-Star every season since - that's special by any definition. However, he's almost criminally underrated as a legit MVP candidate. The thing holding him back is his body, if he could just stay on the court a whole season he would make a better case. That said, if he can play 70+ games this year, he could be a real dark-horse to win it. With Dwyane Wade and Lebron James teaming up, the incumbent winner's chances have taken a big hit and we know Kobe doesn't dominate the regular season anymore.
However, I don't want to sell Roy short by making this a circumstantial season; he has an offensive game with really no weakness and is also a gifted playmaker with a reputation for excelling in crunch time. After a nightmare year last season for Portland, the Blazers are looking to bounce back in a big way. They have a real shot at a second or third seed in the West if they are healthy and Roy is a big part of that. Now take a look back at the criteria I gave at the start of this post and see how many boxes Roy checks... you'll find Roy checks all the boxes.
5. Kobe Bryant
Now, I just said that Kobe doesn't tend to dominate the regular season, but after finally getting the surgery he needed to fix lingering injuries, a fresh Kobe Byrant could be the regular season terror of old. We all know how good he is, and with a potential meeting with the Miami Heat in the Finals waiting, the Lakers should be trying to get homecourt advantage which only adds to Kobe's chances of winning the award. He won't need to dominate statistically, but if he can be in the top five in scoring and the Lakers win the West, this could be Kobe's chance to get a second award.
If not? He'll just settle for another ring and Finals MVP.
4. Chris Paul
Having just undergone six months recovery from an injury I know firsthand how much that can motivate and fuel you to make a statement when you return. In the long hours of rehab work and watching your team struggle and ultimately fail from the sidelines, you realise how much you love the game, just what it means to you. Now, imagine you also have to endure your draft class rival taking the crown of world's best point guard while you're away. Factor in the drama surrounding his toast to Carmelo this summer and his subsequent recommitment to the city which birthed his NBA career and you'll have a healthy, incredibly talented Chris Paul playing with a chip on his shoulder.
However, team success is important too, which is probably the only thing holding him back. That said, the Hornets made some good acquisitions in Trevor Ariza and Belinelli. With a new coach and a fresh outlook, the 2010-11 season could and should see big things for Paul and the Hornets. A top six seed in the West with a squad like this gives Paul a real shot at winning his first MVP.
3. Dwyane Wade
Yeah, you read correctly. Contrary to popular belief, having James on his team will help, not hinder, his chances of being regular season MVP. Last season, Wade had to take a step back in the regular season to give his teammates a chance to shine but with number 1 and 6 in a Heat uniform Wade will be free from such concerns, rather, he'll be looking to put his stamp on the team and emphatically deny any attempts by the media or others to call it Lebron's team.
Wade is an unstoppable offensive force, one of the most dynamic slashers since the guy who supplies his shoes was in the League. He's no slouch on D either, and should relish the chance to exert more energy on the defensive end without such a heavy offensive burden. As far as getting the record is concerned, I don't think that is going to be a concern.
Ever since Lebron made his decision, there has been a lot of talk about their being Jordan and Pippen 2.0. The comparison is a good one, but people are confused about who is who. If Wade can stay healthy, I predict by season's end people will realise that Wade is the Jordan of this partnership and he will remind the world why he was 2006 Finals MVP and the only member of the Miami 3 with a ring.
2. Carmelo Anthony
Last season, Melo started off on fire, but an early injury slowed him down. If he can avoid a similar fate this season he will earn this high a ranking in the MVP rankings. Already considered a better clutch player and scorer than Lebron, he is in a contract year and don't underestimate the importance of Coach Karl being back on the sidelines. Expect Melo to use basketball as his release from the off-court drama surrounding possible trades and whatever else is bugging him. I believe he'll stick around in Denver for the season and simply leave in free agency; if it weren't for injuries and illness striking Karl the Nuggets were good enough to be at least 3rd seed in the West last season, and nothing has changed except that Billups has just won a world championship and will be hunting for that same feeling again.
This season is both Melo's chance to put himself back in the conversation as Lebron's rival and also one big audition for the many teams eagerly pursuing his services.
1. Kevin Durant
You all saw it coming, and with good reason. Lebron is sharing the limelight finally, Kobe is a year older and Durant just won a world championship with Team USA. The Thunder have an impressive young core and should only improve on last year's surprise 50-win season.
But let's focus on Durant; the kid is already amongst the best shooters in the L and is a physical freak with a 7'5" wingspan and the handle of a guard. With the confidence he gained in the WC, he should improve on his fourth quarter play, having realised how important it is for a team to have a designated go-to guy.
However, despite his success he remains humble and is as hard-working as they come. That's a potent mix for a player who still hasn't reached his peak.
Unless something goes drastically wrong, Durant will be the regular season MVP. Book it.
So there you have it, a wrap up of all the pre-season predictions. Thank Christ. Just realised I wrote the most on Lebron, which is lame, but ultimately necessary. Ah well.
This will be my last post until the regular season starts. See you all then!
Friday, September 17, 2010
Defensive Player of the Year predictions
With nbadraft.net down for a server update or something to that effect, I figure I'd do another blog post to keep my mind off my U16s grand final game tomorrow morning. Let's hope we can come up big. But this isn't about my personal life, it's about the NBA.
One thing I learned about the NBA in this off-season is that man-to-man defense, when played well enough, is simply the best in basketball. Teams in the world cup tried all sorts of zones and other nonsense to get ahead, but the US team stuck to the basics and relied on grit and intensity to get the job done. So here are my nominations for DPoY...
Honourable mentions; Lebron James, Rajon Rondo
5. Andre Iguodala: A lot of this comes down to Evan Turner's performance; if he and the rest of the 'Sixers can get back on track then Iggy can be the savage, lock-down defender he was in the FIBA world cup. Keeping in mind he was often playing against 4s and will be guarding 2s and 3s in the NBA he could have a strong year and be a bit of a wildcard. However, as with most wildcards, it is going to need a whole bunch of things going right.
4. Gerald Wallace: How was it that a team which was swept in the first round of the playoffs had such a good record against the number one ranked team in the League last season? Well, his name is Crash, and he did a number of Lebron and the Cavs every time they played. This man is all hustle, and has improved each year under Larry Brown. It wasn't his skill (though considerable) that earned him an All-Star nomination, but his grit and intensity; which just so happens to be the most important thing on the defensive end. A lot of people have Charlotte dropping out, but a fresh commitment from Larry Brown should see the stocks of both the Bobcats and Gerald Wallace rise.
3. Eric Gordon: Okay, before you all close the window and never read the blog again, hear me out; I have never seen such a dominant defensive effort by a guard as I did with Eric Gordon in the world cup. Those of you who followed Team USAs efforts know the one I'm talking about. I can't remember what happened to set him off, but Gordon got pissed, and he absolutely terrorised his opponent for almost the entire shot clock, I'm surprised they didn't have to stop the play to clean up the puddle forming at the dude's feet. There were hands everywhere, and Gordon finished with an emphatic rejection to gain possession for the US again. Now, I know it was only one play and all, but think about the Clippers' situation and Gordon's role on the team; Kaman is coming off an All-Star season, some dude name Blake Griffin is going to be back in uniform and Baron Davis is still kicking around. Gordon is more well known for his shooting, but he showing how dedicated he was to defense, and how impressive he can be on that end of the floor. If he learns from this experience and applies himself as a defensive ace he might just be in with a shot.
2. Josh Smith: Okay, athleticism is all well and good in transition or on a dunk attempt, but when used correctly, it can make one heck of a defender. Lebron might be the better player (duh), but Smith is every bit the athlete he is. He was monstrous this past season, and with so many people writing off his Hawks after they failed to improve in the off-season expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder. Now that he's done hocking up 3s, he'll hopefully get the crowd going with blocked shots. If anyone has a legitimate shot at knocking Howard off the pedestal it is Smith. That said...
1. Dwight Howard: It ain't happening this season. As the two time defending champ, barring a major injury I can't see Howard getting any less athletic or losing his defensive instincts. While he has a very limited offensive skillset and shoots free-throws about as well as the last "Superman", he is considered one of the best players in the League, which gives hope to incoming offensively-challenged shot-blockers like Hassan Whiteside.
So there you have my predictions, again they might be a little biased, but I feel there is a strong case for each of these candidates. That said, this is one of the hardest awards to narrow down to 5-7; I could easily have given 10 or more honourable mentions, there are that many ace defenders who could step up. Ah well, what are you gonna do?
Cheers,
Omphalos
One thing I learned about the NBA in this off-season is that man-to-man defense, when played well enough, is simply the best in basketball. Teams in the world cup tried all sorts of zones and other nonsense to get ahead, but the US team stuck to the basics and relied on grit and intensity to get the job done. So here are my nominations for DPoY...
Honourable mentions; Lebron James, Rajon Rondo
5. Andre Iguodala: A lot of this comes down to Evan Turner's performance; if he and the rest of the 'Sixers can get back on track then Iggy can be the savage, lock-down defender he was in the FIBA world cup. Keeping in mind he was often playing against 4s and will be guarding 2s and 3s in the NBA he could have a strong year and be a bit of a wildcard. However, as with most wildcards, it is going to need a whole bunch of things going right.
4. Gerald Wallace: How was it that a team which was swept in the first round of the playoffs had such a good record against the number one ranked team in the League last season? Well, his name is Crash, and he did a number of Lebron and the Cavs every time they played. This man is all hustle, and has improved each year under Larry Brown. It wasn't his skill (though considerable) that earned him an All-Star nomination, but his grit and intensity; which just so happens to be the most important thing on the defensive end. A lot of people have Charlotte dropping out, but a fresh commitment from Larry Brown should see the stocks of both the Bobcats and Gerald Wallace rise.
3. Eric Gordon: Okay, before you all close the window and never read the blog again, hear me out; I have never seen such a dominant defensive effort by a guard as I did with Eric Gordon in the world cup. Those of you who followed Team USAs efforts know the one I'm talking about. I can't remember what happened to set him off, but Gordon got pissed, and he absolutely terrorised his opponent for almost the entire shot clock, I'm surprised they didn't have to stop the play to clean up the puddle forming at the dude's feet. There were hands everywhere, and Gordon finished with an emphatic rejection to gain possession for the US again. Now, I know it was only one play and all, but think about the Clippers' situation and Gordon's role on the team; Kaman is coming off an All-Star season, some dude name Blake Griffin is going to be back in uniform and Baron Davis is still kicking around. Gordon is more well known for his shooting, but he showing how dedicated he was to defense, and how impressive he can be on that end of the floor. If he learns from this experience and applies himself as a defensive ace he might just be in with a shot.
2. Josh Smith: Okay, athleticism is all well and good in transition or on a dunk attempt, but when used correctly, it can make one heck of a defender. Lebron might be the better player (duh), but Smith is every bit the athlete he is. He was monstrous this past season, and with so many people writing off his Hawks after they failed to improve in the off-season expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder. Now that he's done hocking up 3s, he'll hopefully get the crowd going with blocked shots. If anyone has a legitimate shot at knocking Howard off the pedestal it is Smith. That said...
1. Dwight Howard: It ain't happening this season. As the two time defending champ, barring a major injury I can't see Howard getting any less athletic or losing his defensive instincts. While he has a very limited offensive skillset and shoots free-throws about as well as the last "Superman", he is considered one of the best players in the League, which gives hope to incoming offensively-challenged shot-blockers like Hassan Whiteside.
So there you have my predictions, again they might be a little biased, but I feel there is a strong case for each of these candidates. That said, this is one of the hardest awards to narrow down to 5-7; I could easily have given 10 or more honourable mentions, there are that many ace defenders who could step up. Ah well, what are you gonna do?
Cheers,
Omphalos
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
MIP predictions
Hey guys, so we are deep, deep into the off-season right now and trades and signings are mostly settled down. So I figured I'd do a few pre-season predictions starting with Most Improved Player predictions. This is a hard one to pin down because sometimes they factor in draft order and "expected growth" when giving out the award, so its difficult for a high draft pick to get it. But what the hell, let's go for my top 5 MIP predictions.
Honourable Mentions: Lamarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez
5. Nicolas Batum: Batum has great athleticism, and if he can just put together a 70+ game season he should capitalise on a wealth of talent and potential. With Webster and Outlaw gone, Luke Babbitt is the only threat to his PT at the 3 which can be either a good thing or a bad thing. However, a strong showing for France in the FIBA World Championship should give him a confidence boost and a running start into the '10-'11 season. However, playing with All-Star Brandon Roy will limit his responsibility, so barring another injury plague he won't be given enough of a role to take home the trophy.
4. Martell Webster: Another Portland player who was restricted to being a shooter in McMillan's system he has been given a chance to be a leader on a very young Minnesota team and should start at the shooting guard spot. He's only 23 and when healthy has contributed well in his 5 years on the League. The pressure from draftee Wesley Johnson and teammate Corey Brewer should keep him motivated too.
3. Anthony Randolph: This guy has been talked about as a Lamar Odom type player since he came into the League, others thinking he can be a Hall of Famer. Finally traded from the horrendous Warriors team where his playing time was erratic at best he should be given the nod to start at either the 2, 3 or 4. However, STATs presence will likely stifle his chances to shine to the fullest at this stage.
2. J.J. Hickson: Left holding the ball in a Cavaliers team sans LeBron this young power forward will be given all the playing time he needs as Gilbert embraces rebuilding. He was dominant in SL and should flourish given more consistent playing time and a more creative coach in Byron Scott.
1. Michael Beasley: Okay, so he did a lot of weed in Miami, but he seems to have put those days behind him, and after seeing a recent clip of him playing at a charity game, I've never seen him so animated or motivated. His game will suit the triangle if he can learn the system and despite Love's stellar play with the USA Team, Beasley is the only player on the roster with superstar talent, despite his inconsistency. Without Wade ahead of him as number one scoring option Beasley should return to his college days when he was a stud.
So there you have it, my predictions for MIP; a cross between what I'd like to see happen and what I think will happen.
Feel free to share your thoughts or predictions in the comment section.
Honourable Mentions: Lamarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez
5. Nicolas Batum: Batum has great athleticism, and if he can just put together a 70+ game season he should capitalise on a wealth of talent and potential. With Webster and Outlaw gone, Luke Babbitt is the only threat to his PT at the 3 which can be either a good thing or a bad thing. However, a strong showing for France in the FIBA World Championship should give him a confidence boost and a running start into the '10-'11 season. However, playing with All-Star Brandon Roy will limit his responsibility, so barring another injury plague he won't be given enough of a role to take home the trophy.
4. Martell Webster: Another Portland player who was restricted to being a shooter in McMillan's system he has been given a chance to be a leader on a very young Minnesota team and should start at the shooting guard spot. He's only 23 and when healthy has contributed well in his 5 years on the League. The pressure from draftee Wesley Johnson and teammate Corey Brewer should keep him motivated too.
3. Anthony Randolph: This guy has been talked about as a Lamar Odom type player since he came into the League, others thinking he can be a Hall of Famer. Finally traded from the horrendous Warriors team where his playing time was erratic at best he should be given the nod to start at either the 2, 3 or 4. However, STATs presence will likely stifle his chances to shine to the fullest at this stage.
2. J.J. Hickson: Left holding the ball in a Cavaliers team sans LeBron this young power forward will be given all the playing time he needs as Gilbert embraces rebuilding. He was dominant in SL and should flourish given more consistent playing time and a more creative coach in Byron Scott.
1. Michael Beasley: Okay, so he did a lot of weed in Miami, but he seems to have put those days behind him, and after seeing a recent clip of him playing at a charity game, I've never seen him so animated or motivated. His game will suit the triangle if he can learn the system and despite Love's stellar play with the USA Team, Beasley is the only player on the roster with superstar talent, despite his inconsistency. Without Wade ahead of him as number one scoring option Beasley should return to his college days when he was a stud.
So there you have it, my predictions for MIP; a cross between what I'd like to see happen and what I think will happen.
Feel free to share your thoughts or predictions in the comment section.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Is this the end?
So as you may have realised based on my earlier posts, I'm not particularly happy with the current scene in the NBA post-Decision. However, if someone were to ask me whether the NBA was finished and whether they should tune back in 6 years from now I'd tell them yes. But only because a real fan wouldn't even need to ask and if they can live without the NBA they probably should. You see, from now on, the NBA for me isn't about winning championships. Barring a colossal clash of ego between the Miami 3, I can't see anybody else challenging them once they get on a roll. So I'll take solace in the little things. Being Australian, our culture celebrates the underdog and is always looking to cut down the "tall poppy"; so my Aussie side loves that every other team in the League just became an underdog who I can root for against the clear favourite in Miami.
That said, there are a few players, teams and situations which will be very interesting to see grow and develop, and quite a few will be in their prime when the Miami 3 are over the hill. So here's a quick rundown of the 23 things I'm looking forward to in the next six years in no particular order:
- Omphalos.
That said, there are a few players, teams and situations which will be very interesting to see grow and develop, and quite a few will be in their prime when the Miami 3 are over the hill. So here's a quick rundown of the 23 things I'm looking forward to in the next six years in no particular order:
- Tyreke and Cousins era:These guys have the potential to be Kobe/Shaq of this generation. Reke is already amongst the best closers in the game and Cousins has an air of dominance on the offensive end which puts him amongst the top scoring centres before the season even starts. Seeing these guys grow and develop for 6 years until they are in their primes and ready to get some rings is going to be awesome.
- Kobe's Last Dance: This coming season will be the toughest test Kobe Bryant has ever had to face; it is also likely his last chance to win a championship with Phil Jackson. Despite being a Laker Hater, I've got the utmost respect for Kobe Bryant the basketball player and if anyone in the League today can will his team to victory against a stacked team like Miami, it'll be the Black Mamba.
- Brandon Roy and the Blazers:
The Blazers are one of the teams which have managed to build a very deep, very talented team through the draft. If only they could get it on the court. While Roy is too old to simply wait out the Miami 3 for his chance at a ring, the Portland squad will be able to keep the game close, and Roy is arguably the best closer on either team. This comes down to whether or not Oden, Roy and Batum can put together 70+ games as a unit, but give them a year or two to come together and develop and watch what happens. Look for Roy to be in MVP discussions soon. - Kevin Durant:
This kid has so much potential that he needs his own number, because while the Thunder are promising, Durantula has already delivered. I honestly think KD has a chance to enter GOAT discussions before the end of his career for a couple of reasons; his stroke is pure, his scoring comes within the flow of the offense, he has great rivals and competition to hone his skills against. If he were able to sneak even a couple of rings away from Miami in the next 6 seasons it would be miraculous; but even if he doesn't, he'll be 27 when those contracts expire and at the peak of his basketball playing abilities. In contrast, LBJ and Wade will be 31 and 34. Let the rings flow. - OKC Thunder:
Exciting young team laden with talent. We all know what Durant can do, Westbrook is a freak athlete and Ibaka has the potential to be one of the best shot-blockers in the League in a few years. The battle between the Thunder and Portland for top seed in the West in a few years will be a sight to behold. - Western Conference Finals:
The NBA Finals aren't the main attraction for me anymore; the WCF are. Portland, LA, Denver, OKC and Memphis are all young teams looking to rise up and challenge Miami. - Rajon Rondo and the Boston Celtics:
My regulars will know I love Rondo and the Celtics. But they are pretty much prehistoric these days and are still the best chance to beat the Heat in a 7 game series. When the Boston Three Party ends though Rondo will be left with the keys to a team which will need to be rebuilt from scratch. I hope he'll stick around and let them build around him, and a core of Rondo, Glen Davis, Avery Bradley could make the playoffs in the East. - Wall vs Rose vs Westbrook:
Three big, freakishly athletic point guards with a team in their hands. The sheer number of quality PGs in the League and who will be in the next 6 years will be awesome to behold, but expect these three to rise to the top in 6 years time. - Wall and the Wizards:
Wall has been hyped liked crazy, and followed in the footsteps of DRose to be drafted 1st overall. However, despite the ghost of Arenas hanging around, Wall has a solid young frontcourt around him in McGee and Blatche who could reach the playoffs as early as this season. - DeRozan:
Ridiculous athleticism and hops like a young Vince Carter. If he stays loyal and they build around him, Bargnani and Davis they could make the Raptors a force to be reckoned with in time. - Boston vs Miami, 2010:
The first game of the regular season couldn't be more fitting; the old 3 vs the new 3. Throw in Shaq facing off against "the King" and you've got one hell of a matchup. Boston to win in a blowout (haha I wish...). - Durant vs Beasley:
Now, a lot of you will be scratching your heads about this one, but I honestly believe that Beasley can be a star to rival Durant with enough minutes and responsibility. Minny might just be desperate enough to give them to him. Two offensively gifted, scrawny SFs? Yes please. - Gilchrist vs Barnes:
Both of these guys have similar height and characteristics; they work hard, have great all-round games and are only separated in age by a year. Wherever they end up, they'll be given big minutes and the reins to the team; I can't wait. - Kentucky vs Duke 2010/2011:
Both teams have a bunch of highly touted recruits coming in headlined by Brandon Knight and Kyrie Irving. Both have brilliant coaches in Coach K and Coach Cal. Expect them to meet up in the NCAA tournament at some point and have a great rivalry in the League too. - The return of the Blakers:
The second time in recent history that a number 1 pick has been cut down by injury (see: Greg Oden). Having suffered a stress fracture myself this year I can tell you they are no fun. But if Blake is anything like me he'll have learned a lot and come back raring to go. While the Clippers aren't going to compete for a playoff spot right away, give Bledsoe, Gordon, Aminu, Griffin and Kaman a few years to gel and you've got yourself a starting lineup which could make the Lakers the second best team in LA. - The Knicks experiment:
STAT made a big move in leaving to the Knicks before anyone else, but they've surrounded him with a fairly capable team. Unfortunately, STAT will likely be forced into playing C, but this should suit the D'Antoni system well. Starting lineup of Felton, Chandler, Gallinari, Randolph and Stoudemire is not too shabby. - Carmelo Anthony:
I won't add "and the Nuggets" here because I'm not sure if he will stay. However, with LeBron sharing the ball and going ring-hunting, Melo has his best chance yet to win the regular season MVP. He is still a better scorer than Durant and much more physically imposing. Also, every time he and LeBron face off I get tingles. This dude is going to be fun to watch no matter where he goes/stays. - Cleveland Cavaliers:
I gotta admit, I'm curious. They have a coach known for overachieving in Byron Scott and a reasonably talented team still remaining. I expect a commitment to team play and D which could see these guys be the Houston Rockets of next season. However, they need to build around their younger players like Sessions, Moon, Hickson and Varejao. Don't be surprised if these guys end up around 9/10 in the East. - New Jersey Nets:
I have a lot of respect for a coach who can get his team to the Finals (see above) even if they don't win. Despite the lack of huge names, they actually have an intriguing lineup for the future. T-Will and Damion James have the potential to be a devastating wing combo in a few years, almost like Jordan/Pippen Zero. Although they have something the JP classic didn't - a legitimate scoring C. However, with recent acquisitions at the 2 and 3 in Morrow and Outlaw it remains to be seen whether these guys will get the minutes to grow and develop. Definitely a young exciting team to watch in the future. - Charlotte Bobcats:
A lot of people are writing them off as rubbish, but I see them making the playoffs this year in the East. But the real reason I'm looking forward to seeing them is because I'm a huge Jordan fan and I want to see how he steers this team long-term. If Larry Brown actually commits and sticks around for an extended tenure, then these guys might just go somewhere. Henderson was impressive in the SL and should be ready to take the reins from Jackson at the 2 in a few years. Wallace is a dynamo and Tyrus Thomas could be a superstar if he ever got it together. Augustine will finally get the starting spot and also has potential. I disagreed in the move to get rid of Chandler, but what can you do. Don't forget that they signed Shaun Livingston, who is still young and talented enough to bounce back from his injury. The Bobcats have made the playoffs now, but Jordan needs to think long-term; the team is aging and in the current climate the 'Cats are no chance of winning a title in the next 6 years. Embrace change, develop the youngsters and build through the draft. Hopefully things will all pan out. - Pacers:
Collison was a brilliant acquisition and Paul George will probably be a starter at the 3 in 6 years. Hibbert has the requisite size to dominate most other Cs in the League. So as you can see, they've got intriguing prospects for the future. However, none moreso than Lance Stephenson. Now, I know he has gotten some bad press lately and is facing criminal charges, but I'll wait until the judge's decision before I make a ruling of any sort. That he was released without bail is a good sign. From a purely basketball perspective, Lance could very easily become the star of this team and allow Granger to be second option as he ages. I hope Lance can pull a Kidd and fly straight after this latest offence. - Philly:
I always thought Philly were a pretty rubbish team, and last season sorta proved that. I am of the opinion that a running, up-tempo team probably won't win a championship without the ability to play the half-court game also. That said, if Turner is as good as advertised and Holiday expands on his SL performance then Iguodala might not have to be 1st option on offense and the team might actually make the playoffs again. Holiday, Turner, Iguodala, Young, Brand, Speights... these guys can ball. Its up to Collins to bring it all together. - DRose and the Chicago Bulls:
The Bulls had to be #23. Rose has amazed me this past season in his quiet confidence and unwillingness to back down. Add to the fact that the Bulls solved a lot of their problems this off-season and the Bulls have a chance to top Miami in a few years. Rose is a legit superstar, Noah is that hustle guy every team needs, Deng can score as a 3rd option and Boozer is a low post presence they've been after. Brewer brings D and Korver shooting at the 2 with Gibson and Johnson coming off the bench you have a deep team with a proven playoff performer in Rose at the helm. If anyone can bring a ring back to Chi-City it'll be Rose and his Bulls.
- Omphalos.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
What a tangled web we weave.
So I thought I would wait for the dust to settle before I made another post because the League is in a state of such turmoil at the moment. I meant to follow up the draft, but what happened a week later blew it all out of the water. So here I go, ranting about various topics as they come to me, because there's no way I'd be able to fully cover what has happened in the past few weeks without writing a thesis on it (and I probably could). To help aid in my quest I'll be splitting it into a few sections; trades, free agents, the draft, Summer League.
Trades
Cheers,
Omphalos.
Trades
- Some of you might have read my Beasley post a while back, and as predicted he was shipped out. Now, he didn't end up where I thought he would but the important thing is he left. So now that he is with the T'Wolves what can we expect from him? He'll be fighting Wesley Johnson and Martell Webster for the starting spot at the 3 and probably playing some limited minutes at the 4. However, Webster is either going to start at the 2 or come off the bench like he did in Portland. I hope Webster gets the nod to start at the 2 because I'm not big on Johnson or Brewer as starters. Johnson is better suited to the 3 than the 2, but I think Beasley will get in there because of his experience and upside, whereas Johnson is already 23 and has seemingly maxed out. The Wolves have nothing to lose and everything to gain by giving Beasley minutes. If he plays well, then he has the potential to be top 5 in the League based on his talent and Rubio is that much more likely to actually come over to the States with Minny.If it doesn't, well they were worst in the West already so the only way is up. But I think the triangle will benefit him and being on a team without anybody with franchise talent will suit him well.
- Where to begin? Let's start with the big one. What was LeBron thinking? I think most of us will admit we thought he would leave, but the Miami 3 was something I never thought would happen. People questioned his drive before, but clearly he is without any competitive fire if he is going to ride the coattails of Wade and Bosh to championships. Put simply, he copped out. The League is worse for it regardless of what happens; if it works out then there will be zero competition in the East and probably the Finals in a few years when Kobe's body gives in. If it fails horribly and the Heat suck, then Miami will be stuck in a terrible situation and the League will see the downfall of two of its biggest stars. For the record, Bosh and Wade aren't at fault, they would have worked well together. This is all on LeDouche. It will be a few years before any team will challenge, but more on that later.
- Bulls did a great job upgrading at the 2 and 4 by signing multiple free agents. Ronnie Brewer is a defensive minded SG who should complement Rose well and is probably an upgrade over Captain Kirk due to his size and athleticism. Korver provides perimeter shooting and should benefit enormously from the attention Rose will receive. Boozer gives them a low post presence and complements defensively minded Noah well.
- Knicks did well to pick up STAT and have a shot at Melo/Paul in the future. Felton was definitely an upgrade at point but they still need a big C so that Gallinari can play the 3 and STAT can avoid starting at the 5.
- Grizz overpaid for Gay but kept their young core together.
- Joe Johnson should have left Atlanta but the Hawks don't need to sign anybody to improve, just need to adjust their positions. Actually, they desperately need a true C. Rumour has it Shaq is keen, which would be perfect for the big fella and the Hawks. Horford at the 4, Smith at the 3 and Johnson at the 2. Those starters will rumble with anyone in the league.
- My Celtics upgraded their roster by signing JO and keeping their group together.
- Obviously this is a vast area to cover briefly, but a few picks seemed out of place; Hayward at 9, Udoh at 6 (are you freaking kidding me?) and Stephenson dropping that far was ridiculous. Knicks must be feeling like idiots for letting him slip after he played in the SL.
- Wall is looking as good as everyone said he was and the Kings did a great job picking up Cousins. Orton seems like a bust at this point and I doubt he will ever be a starter in this league. Bledsoe is going to take over the reins in LA sooner or later and it will be for the best. BD is a has-been and with their young core the Clippers could actually go somewhere. Aminu needs a jump shot and just general growth. Patterson is going to be the solid rotation guy we thought he would be.
- Favors is looking really raw!
- Stephenson can play point! Who would have thought. Can't wait for Lance and Wall to go head to head for the first time in the pros. Former SLAM cover buddies couldn't have gone any further in opposite directions since then if they tried. Lance needed to drop though because now he has one hell of a chip on his shoulder. Wish he'd made it to LA, but the Pacers are looking young and exciting nowadays.
- Nets drafted well by getting Damion James who will do well with T-Williams. Not sure how this will work with the Outlaw, Farmar and Morrow signings though. Morrow would have been a better fit in Chicago as they desperately needed a starter. These guys have trade value so we'll just have to see.
- OKC addressed their biggest need with Aldrich and will only improve this year.
Cheers,
Omphalos.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
