Western Conference Previews/Predictions: Semifinals

With the Western Conference first rounds wrapping up and my predictions more of less correct (sorry Dallas fans), it's time to move on to the next, much more interesting round. The West is hard to predict from top to bottom, because there's such a small sample size for Mavericks vs Lakers in a series, and of course, the Thunder and Grizzlies haven't been in the playoffs much period. But, let's have a crack shall we?

#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs #3 Dallas Mavericks:
For years I've heard commentators in the NBA talk about how the Mavs were built to take down the Lakers, but never got that chance because they crumbled in the first round. Well, no more. The two time defending champs have struggled more than usual this season, and despite their motivational series against the Hornets which got them playing well towards the end, the Mavericks' defeat of Portland was characterised by something we haven't seen before from them; resilience. That inspirational effort by Brandon Roy could have been the turning point, instead it was simply a brief respite for the Blazers, who couldn't find a way to win on the road, and finally dropped one at home. But let's break it down...

• Key matchups:
  
  • Pau vs Dirk: These two are similar in a lot of ways; each stand near the top of the PF rankings, they are both European and most importantly, have had to shake the label of being soft for much of their careers. Just like when comparing Rose and CP3 as PGs, so too do I say with Dirk and Pau; the former is the best player playing that position, the latter is the best AT playing that position. Dirk thrives off switches, where he backs down a smaller opponent and shoots over him, but with the length of the Lakers, Dirk might be switching onto Odom instead of Artest, which wouldn't be much of an advantage. Gasol needs to get going inside to win this matchup and also bother Dirk defensively with those lanky arms. This is a match made in heaven really, and I can't wait to see it.
  • Bynum vs Chandler: One thing the Lakers have over the Blazers is an offensively gifted big man; instead of Chandler bothering the finesse player Gasol with his physical D, he'll be getting bumped and grinded by Bynum, one of the last true Cs left in the NBA who can play both ends when healthy. This matchup will also determine the Pau and Dirk matchup, because if Bynum is enough of a threat to warrant Chandler's attention, then Gasol can have his way with Dirk offensively.
  • Kobe vs Terry: These guys are getting on in years, but they both know how to turn it on in the playoffs, and more importantly the 4th quarter. I always used to hate Terry, thinking he was overrated coming off the bench with little responsibility and using fresh legs to win close games, and while this is still a part of how I feel, I also respect him more having watched the Blazers series where he was absolutely cold-blooded, hitting dagger jump-shots every time the Blazers went on a run. Kobe is slowing down but he's still Kobe. Enough said. This series might just come down to who is the most clutch, and while I'd go with Kobe, Terry might well prove me wrong.
• The X-Factor: Peja Stojakovic. This guy can still flat-out win games with his shooting, and while Lamar is a versatile player who brings a lot to the table, in the playoffs, having a guy who can dominate one aspect of the game like Peja is a big factor. If the Lakers give him as much room as Ray Allen had last year, they could be in trouble.
• Most interesting sub-plot: The big-little man, J.J. Barea. I used to love this little guy because he's actually my height, white, and somehow contributing in the NBA without any crazy athleticism that short guys Spud Webb and Nate Robinson have. However, he does seem to get a lot of calls when people back him down because he is rewarded for flopping because of his size. The Lakers have a decent PG rotation this year, with Brown, Fisher and Blake on the team, I'll be very curious to see how they each play Barea; with strength, athleticism or length, respectively.

I think Lakers win this one; their experience, depth and superior coaching in Phil Jackson will be crucial, and let's not forget the home court advantage, which will be vital in this series. If the Lakers can go up 2-0 to start the series I find it very hard to imagine the Mavericks coming back from that deficit. I'll go with a 4-1 Lakers win, because the Mavs are strong enough at home to win at least one game there.

#4 OKC Thunder vs #8 Memphis Grizzlies:
I was thinking the other day how last year I really wanted these two teams to make it to the playoffs, it's crazy to think they are already playing each other in the second round. That said, one team is a contender, the other a cinderella story. The Spurs had obvious weaknesses in age and injury to Manu. The Thunder? Their only weakness is inexperience, which the Grizzlies are also suffering from, which makes it null and void. But before I dismiss the Grizzlies out of hand, let's get into why they'll lose...

• Key matchups:
  
  • Gasol/Z-Bo vs Ibaka/Perkins: If the Thunder wanted a series to prepare them for the loaded frontline of the Lakers, playing against the loaded frontline of the Grizzlies is a good place to start. Dynamic defensive duo Perkins and Ibaka will have their hands full against Gasol and Z-Bo, especially given that the Grizzlies play a very inside-out game, so they'll be feeding the post a lot. However, while Duncan and McDyess were also a solid defensive unit, they didn't have that defensive energy to really bother Memphis. These two do, especially Ibaka, who dunked from the free-throw line in the dunk contest this season - if that doesn't say energy I'm not sure what does! - and Perkins is the perfect choice to stop Gasol, he will be one of the few burly Cs in a league of sticks who Gasol must face. If Ibaka can get going offensively, then Thunder wins this matchup, but I'm giving the edge here to the Grizzlies, even if only because the Thunder's greatest strengths lie elsewhere by design.
  • Conley vs Westbrook: Conley was the unexpected spark which carried the Grizzlies over the Spurs, but Westbrook is a whole different beast from Parker; his size, aggression and athleticism is going to eat Conley alive. All Conley can hope to do is lure him into being trigger-happy on the jump-shot and bank on him missing a whole heap. Other than that, pretty one-sided match-up.
• The X-Factor: Kevin Durant. As much as I wanted to put him into the key matchups section, with Rudy out the Grizz don't really have anyone who will bother him, and will likely have to throw a whole number of defenders at him to try and slow him down. Somehow, "Kevin Durant vs Memphis defenders:" seemed a bit cruel. So yes, if Durant plays well, the Thunder win, simple as that.
• Most interesting sub-plot: The Durant and Westbrook dilemma; who is their closer? Ask anyone and they'd say Durant. Ask Russell Westbrook and you might get a different answer. We might be blowing this all out of proportion, but execution in close games is what wins championships, and if Russell can't accept his role as second option and distributor, the Thunder could be in trouble once they get to the Lakers.

I know I spent most of the time talking about the Thunder and the Lakers, but honestly, that's all this one is. The Grizzlies are going down 4-1, because I can't see them winning more than one game on pluck against a very well constructed and determined Thunder team.

That's me out, it's nearly 5pm over here, the Thunder-Grizzlies and Heat-Celtics are starting at 1am and 3.30am respectively, so I'll probably have a nap and then watch them.

Second round baby, can't wait!

Eastern Conference Previews/Predictions: Semifinals

While the Western contingent are still nutting out the details (you know, whether the Grizzlies will pull off the elusive upset of a number on seed, that little thing), the East is ready to go, and we've had a few surprises already.

I'm pleased to say I was bang on with the Celtics series and Bulls series, but I expected more of a fight from Philly, and of course, I was wrong entirely with Atlanta. In my defence, I've been calling for Horford to play more PF and Smith more SF for years now, who'd have thought they'd finally make the move and that it would work so well?

But, what's past is past, so on to the next round!

#1 Chicago Bulls vs #5 Atlanta Hawks:
Who'd have thought we'd see this matchup? Nobody gave it much thought because most of us agreed with Jameer Nelson that he'd see Rose in the second round (boy, does he know a thing or two about having egg on his face, he should ask Lebron for tips on how to deal). But, expected or not, the series is here, and should be arguably a better one than a Bulls-Magic series might have been. While Rose and the Bulls are a throwback to the old superstar model of the 90s, the Hawks are built around a number of solid (if not spectacular) players who know their roles and share the load. Denver was another team who had this mindset, but it didn't go so well against a team with legitimate star-power in the Thunder. However, the Hawks have been together a lot longer than that hastily cobbled together Frankestein of a team in the Mile High City, so should weather the storm a little better. Let's see why...

• Key matchups: Rose vs Crawford is going to be huge. They are both killers in the clutch, excel in isolation and have been know to will their team to victory. However, while Rose showed some aggression on the defensive end against the Pacers, neither is well known for being lock-down defenders, so it will be a battle of offensive firepower, which I think the soon to be MVP has covered. That said, if it comes down to needing a 3 to win it, I wouldn't be surprised if Crawford one-ups Rose. Another worthy mention is Horford vs Boozer; Boozer has been underperforming in the post-season thus far, and with Horford finally in his natural 4, he might just have his way with Boozer's terrible defensive efforts and carry the Hawks to a few victories.
  
• X Factor: Joe Johnson; Johnson seems to have shaken his playoff blues from last season, but Deng will have to guard Josh Smith, which leaves Johnson free to run amok against Korver and Bogans, against whom he has a size, strength and skill advantage. It'll be up to Ronnie Brewer to put the clamps on Johnson, and it could be that he will hold the fate of the Bulls in his hands, because the Hawks might have overpaid to get him, but Johnson is still an extremely high calibre player when he gets hot.
• Most interesting sub-plot: Florida reunion; having spent those seasons together winning titles in Florida, Horford and Noah know each other pretty well, and while they will be playing different positions this series, Thibs is smart enough to switch the longer Noah onto Horford for much of the games, as Boozer will get eaten alive. The pitting of a defensive specialist against an offensive hustler who were also college teammates? Yeah, I'd call that good watching.

While the Hawks pulled an upset against the Magic, we've known all along that Orlando was a spent force and wouldn't make much noise in the post-season this year. That's why I'm saying Bulls in 7, because Atlanta is gaining momentum at home, and the Bulls were playing from behind against Indiana, I imagine the third-round starved Hawks will do a better job holding onto those leads. Expect more Herculean efforts from Rose to pull the Bulls through this series, but suddenly they don't seem so invincible.

#2 Miami Heat vs #3 Boston Celtics:
It would have been nice if this could have happened in the ECF, but the Celtics always did prefer to take out their biggest threat when they are fresher, as they did against the Cavaliers last year, and after having swept the Knicks, the Celtics are going to be fresh. The Heat on the other hand, had a more draining series than their 4-1 win suggests; for much of the time they were playing from behind, and had to really expend energy defensively to win those games. With Bosh, Wade and James all playing big minutes in the series (39.8, 38.0, and 42.2 respectively), the Sixers did their job as road-bump by giving the Celtics that one extra game's worth of rest. The Celtics' veteran mentality should prove the edge, as the Heat could easily crumble under the pressure of their own expectations when faced by a real challenger.

• Key matchups:
  
  • Wade vs Allen: Allen is underrated defensively, and one of the best conditioned athletes in the NBA should be up to the task of slowing down Wade with his efforts on both ends, because everyone knows playing against Ray Allen doesn't just mean trying to overcome his veteran D, it means chasing him through all those screens and trying to stop him getting a tiny bit of air. Wade is notorious for roaming on D and gambling, so if Rondo can find Allen open, he could be the difference between victory and defeat for the Celtics.
  • Lebron vs Pierce: Pierce defends Lebron well. This we know. However, the reverse is also true. Many called Pierce a spent force after his disappointing performance against Lebron offensively last season, but he's looked good against Melo, and seems locked in defensively too. However, if Lebron can get hot with his jumper, there's little Pierce can do to stop him at this stage of his career.
    
  • Bosh vs Garnett: This is the key matchup. We know what Wade and Lebron bring to the table, but Bosh has had a very hot and cold season. Going up against the last Defensive Player of the Year not named Dwight Howard, he'd better find some consistency on those jumpers, because I don't see him being very effective in the paint. Garnett has been champing at the bit to go at the Heat all season, and I can see him taking it at Bosh every time he gets the chance, because he's healthier than he was last year, and knows the end is coming. When an already intense KG has nothing to lose by going all-out, you'd hate to be Chris Bosh.
• The X Factor: Rajon Rondo. Plain and simple, if Rondo is doing his thang and can hit the jumpers he will invariably be given, the Celtics win handily. The Heat simply have no one who is even close to his level on either end. However, Rondo can get trigger happy in big games, and he needs to pick his moments to be aggressive for the Celtics to win.
• Most interesting sub-plot: Shaquille O'Neal denies the "King" a ring. Shaq is pretty old even by the standards of the regular population, nearing 40 and breaking down every time he strains himself. However, he was able to rest the whole of the Knicks series, and is expected to be healthy for at least some of the Heat series. Now, why is Shaq so important? Well, even though he's old, the Heat are still weak inside, and Shaq will eat Joel Anthony alive, even if only in small portions. Plus, he's probably the only player in the NBA who can confidently step in front of Lebron going full-steam and put him on the floor with just his body. We saw Jermaine O'Neal try it, and that didn't go so well for him, but Shaq is a different kettle of fish. He's got his rings, and being set to retire, he's got no problem pissing off Lebron with hard fouls, because while some scoring would be nice, putting the fear of God into the minds of Miami's slashers is better. Shaq still has a little Diesel left in the tank, don't be surprised if he emerges as a key contributor in this series.

I've gone over a few reasons why the Celtics will win, and I haven't even mentioned their bench depth, superb coaching and Miami's woes in close games. Suffice to say, the Celtics have every reason to win this series, and I'm going out on a limb to say this is a shorter series than people expect, and win it in 5 games. Celtics get it 4-1.

When we know the result of the Grizz-Spurs series, I'll throw up a Western conference edition. Until then, keep enjoying the NBA, because with a lockout looming, it might be the last you get of it in a long, long while.

Western Conference Previews/Predictions

Back to back posting days, takes me back to last year when I first started this thing up (has it been that long already? Damn!).

So here we go with the playoff matchups with a bit of a different format.

#1 Spurs vs #8 Grizzlies
Spurs surprised a lot of people with their depth, energy and change of pace. However, I think they've faltered somewhat, with key members breaking down, and if Manu does indeed miss even one game that could be the difference. The Grizzlies are young, hungry, and like the Thunder last year, don't know that they shouldn't have a shot here, if Rudy Gay were healthy I'd give the Grizzlies the series already given the closing ability he demonstrated this year, but he's not, so we'll have to break it down the old fashioned way... with bullet points!

• Key matchups: Z-Bo and Gasol vs Duncan, Blair, McDyess, Splitter. The war of the frontline should be crucial, if Z-Bo can get hot and put the Spurs bigs in foul trouble there's no telling what could happen. Conley against Parker is another big one, because despite his breakout year, Parker is a proven playoff performer and isn't coming off a long layoff like he was last season.
• X Factor: Manu. Or more importantly, his health. He's having the best season amongst the San Antonio Three this year, and what he brings to the table will be vital.
• Most interesting sub-plot: Redemption, thy name is OJ. With Gay out and the scoring frontline facing formidable foes, the stage is set for Mayo to take over. If he can be that guy for the Grizzlies, all the backwards steps he's taken this season will be erased in one giant leap forward.

I'll actually call the upset here, because I think the Spurs are fragile and the Grizzlies will simply want it more. Memphis takes home-court with Manu out and grinds out a 4-3 win.

#2 Lakers vs #7 Hornets
This is another series that has the makings of a sweep; a superstar valiantly carrying his mediocre, injury-plagued team to the playoffs through sheer heart up against the deep, talented defending champs. However, consider that stellar PG play always gives the Lakers fits and that the Hornets have some guy who's supposed to be pretty good. Also, take a look back at the last couple early-round matchups the Lakers have had; a seven game series against the Rockets sans Yao & McGrady, and a near seven game series against OKC last year. The Lakers are notorious for sleep-walking through the regular season, and it usually takes them a series or two to really flip that switch properly. Let's break it down...

• Key matchups: Kobe vs Ariza. Now, technically Kobe is a SG and Ariza a SF, but the Lakers don't have the offensive firepower at the SF to warrant the attentions of a defensive stopper like Kobe, so it's easy to imagine the lanky Mr. Ariza sliding across to use those long arms to bother his former teammate. If Ariza can goad Bryant into putting the Lakers on his back, and consequently keeping the ball out of the hands of Gasol and Bynum, then Trevor will have done his job; slowing him down while he does so is just a bonus. Bynum/Gasol against Okafur is another one to watch, as Emeka's draftmate Dwight Howard learned the hard way just how good a healthy Bynum/Gasol tandem is. Okafur needs to play physically with the Laker bigs and force the play to be run through the perimeter players. A piece of cake, right?
  
• X Factor: Marco Bellinelli. My Italian blood-brother is the key for the Hornets avoiding the broom. When he's shooting confidently and making shots, the Hornets are suddenly a lot more dangerous.
• Most interesting sup-plot: Ron Artest. Surprised? Aside from his colourful personality, Ron hasn't heard too many calls of "that's Artestic!" during his time in L.A. But as he showed in Game 7 of the Finals, he can still deliver when called upon. Which Ron will we get? Who knows... but I can't wait to find out.

I'm calling a seven game series, with the Hornets taking advantage of a hampered Bynum (starting to see a pattern here?). Lakers will pull out the win 4-3, and it could be the wake-up sting they need to bring home another ring for Kobe.

#3 Dallas vs #6 Portland:
This one is going to be ugly. The gritty, grind-it-out Blazers are going to have to unite behind diamond-in-the-rough franchise player LaMarcus Aldridge to beat the Mavericks, who have been openly mocked around the League for their reputation as chokers in the playoffs. Well, this Portland team is rich with chemistry, stacked with talent, and pissed off about all the injuries they've suffered. Let's break down how and why they'll have their revenge.

• Key matchups: LA vs Dirk. The two franchise PFs have both been accused of being soft, but Aldridge is on another level than Dirk defensively. If he can get Dirk in foul trouble, the Blazers can walk away with this one. Miller against Kidd is another key matchup, two veteran PGs going at it, don't be too surprised if Miller gets the best of the elderly Kidd.
• X Factor: Gerald Wallace. Despite Batum's potential, Wallace is a massive upgrade now he knows the system, and his hustle, tenacity and toughness will give the Mavericks fits. He can spend some time bothering Dirk too, which only increases his capacity to turn this series on it's head. Of course, it would be remiss of me not to mention Jason Terry. If the game is close, he can still heat up in the 4th, although Blazers have plenty of stoppers who can frustrate him in Batum, Matthews and Wallace.
• Most interesting sub-plot: The role of Brandon Roy. Roy may have once again made a hasty retreat, but I think he senses how deep this team is and chose to play through the pain. His role has been reduced, but he can still hit big shots, and even if he plays mostly in the 4th quarter, he could still be a hero. The shadow of Brandon Roy will only get stronger under the bright lights of the playoffs.

Dallas' reputation as an upset waiting to happen is well earned, despite Chandler's stellar year, the Blazers take this one 4-2.

#4 OKC vs #5 Nuggets
When I saw this matchup forming I thought it would be very interesting to watch and felt that Denver could potentially beat anybody in the playoffs with all that depth. That was until I saw KD and the gang dismantle the Nuggets twice in the last weeks of the regular season. With their mid-season trade the Thunder because legitimate contenders from the #4 seed. They tested their mettle against the Lakers last season and were so very close to pulling off the second best upset in years. While the Nuggets are deep as all hell, the Thunder also have great depth, and don't have that Artestic defender to bother Durant physically on the perimeter. But let's take a closer look.

• Key matchups: Westbrook vs Felton/Lawson. Denver's bulldog twins are fighting a cross between a grey-hound and a pit bull in Westbrook. His speed and strength make him tough to stop, but the best PG rotation in the League has the advantage of outnumbering their opponent. If these two can put Russ in foul trouble, or goad him into forcing shots then Denver can steal a few games from OKC.
• X Factor: Denver bench; this is where Denver has the advantage, there is so much talent in this ten-deep squad that even the relatively deep Thunder can't compete. If Harrington, Chandler and the other bench players can get hot, this might become a series worth watching yet.
• Most interesting sub-plot: J.R. Smith. Why do I have this morbid fascination with this guy? Maybe it's because I've seen him do some amazing things, and never understood why he hasn't been given a chance as first option yet. In the last year of his deal, J.R. has nothing to lose, everything to gain. Let's face it, the Nuggets as they are constructed aren't feasible in the long-term. Sometime soon Ujiri will have to decide who will stay and go. If J.R. can put the team on his back, and win, he might just fill that void and finally get a chance to be the face of the franchise.

Despite the potential for a good series, I'm bringing out the broom here, Thunder win it 4-0 and get plenty of rest for their matchup against the Grizz or Spurs.

So there are my takes on the series in the first round, I'll try and do this for Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals and of course, the Finals. I'll likely stick with the new format for at least the semis, as it's relatively concise and get's my points across.

Cheers.

Eastern Conference Previews/Predictions: First Round

Hey all, finally finished a big assignment I had due for university and decided to take a few minutes to post my playoff predictions and give a general preview of what I think will happen first round in the East. I'll go as far as predicting actual games won, but that'll be for fun, the only thing I'm confident about is who wins what and why. For each series I'll try to give something work looking out for, as we all know, the subplot can sometimes be more interesting than the result.

#1 Bulls vs #8 Pacers:
I figured I'd start off with an easy one. Bulls win it. Rose will be too much for Collison, who hasn't played with that same reckless abandon he had last year with the NOH. It's almost a Bulls advantage at every position though. Hansborough/McRoberts is a decent rotation, but Boozer/Gibson is on another level, clear advantage to the Bulls. Dunleavy, George and Rush are actually one of the better rotations at the 2, except they are missing that reliable starter; the depth is good, the quality isn't, I'll give the nod to Brewer, Bogans and Korver here.

That said, Granger vs Deng is going to be very interesting to watch. If Granger can't hold Deng down defensively and punish him on the other end then the Pacers might have to start looking elsewhere for a franchise player. Now, Deng has had a great year, but Granger is the All-Star, is a very talented offensive player and needs to dominate his own matchup at both to prove he can be a leader in the playoffs, even if the Pacers get swept. The Pacers aren't deep like the Nuggets, so they really need Danny to step up and rediscover that intensity he had the year he made the All-Star team.

Another thing to watch if you're a Pacers fan is the play of Roy Hibbert; if he can find the form he had early in the season, where people were talking about him as a potential MIP winner, he could be the difference. Noah is known to frustrate finesse big men like Hibbert, but if Hibbert can somehow throw off the shackles they might be able to pull out a win.

Overall, Bulls win the series 4-1; the loss will do them good so they don't fall victim to the same fate as Lebron's 08-09 Cavaliers who swept their first two rounds only to be upset by the Magic.

#2 Miami vs #7 Philadelphia:
On paper, this looks like a runaway victory for the Heat, but then, that's been the case for almost every game the Heat have played this season. And like in the regular season it doesn't always work out the way it does on paper. I actually think of all the teams capable of an upset, the Sixers are the most likely for a number of reasons;

• Iguodala is an All-World defender, and will frustrate Lebron immensely over the course of a seven game series; he's just as strong, athletic and quick as Lebron, and expends a lot less energy than LBJ on offence, unless he's running the break. Throw in Thaddeus Young, another oversized, hyper-athletic SF/PF to slow down Lebron and all of a sudden it's a series.
• Elton Brand's resurrection is going to be a big factor in the Sixers' chances in the playoffs. If he can abuse Bosh and get him in foul trouble, the already shallow depth of the Heat will suffer even more.
• Pace. As I just mentioned, the shallow Heat bench is going to be a problem in the playoffs; yes, Lebron and Wade love the break, but the Sixers are athletic from top-to-bottom, are always running at you, and for a team which requires Herculean efforts from it's stars night-in-night-out to win games, Philadelphia's style can wear you down.
• Depth. The Miami bench is well, a joke. The Sixers on the other hand, have one of the best benches in the League. Take a look; Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams are matched up with James Jones, Mario Chalmers and the ghost of Mike Miller.
• Coaching. Collins has been there, done that a million times already, and this heady vet has done wonders to forge these Sixers into a real team, not dominated by one star, but just an all-around talented team, that actually plays like one in a game dominated by go-to guys. Spoelstra on the other hand has had a roller-coaster season, going from safe, to on the brink of being canned. When the going get's tough (and sooner or later it will) I'm not sure Spoelstra has enough control over his stars to get them across the line.
  

To sum up, if Iguodala can guard Lebron without the referees unduly punishing him, and the Sixers second unit can take advantage of the weak Miami bench whilst playing at their own pace this could be a far cry from the runaway win for Miami people are predicting. That said, I'll call the Sixers to put the scare into the Heat with an unexpected seven game series they will ultimately lose, it'll be a 4-3 Miami win.

#3 Celtics vs #6 Knicks:
Nobody is more upset than me that we didn't get to see Carmelo's Knicks whale on Wade's Heat for a series this year, but it will be more interesting when both teams are more settled in and the Knicks find that third piece in either free agency or an off-season move. For now, I'll have to settle for my Celtics playing them.

Celtics will win it handily, maybe dropping a game due to Melo heroics, but never the series. Yes, Melo has been playing out of his mind, but the Celtics are notorious for shutting down great individual scorers; weren't you watching what they did to Wade and Lebron last year? I know, I know, I'm forgetting some guy who wears number one, but given how the Knicks have flourished while he's been playing a lesser role, I don't think it likely Melo and Amare somehow develop chemistry to withstand the playoffs.

If the Celtics are rested after sitting their veterans the past two games (and still beating the Knicks incidentally), then it's a no contest. A veteran, tough team up against a hastily cobbled together pair of superstars... what's that saying about a champion team and a team of champions...

It comes down to Shaq whether they sweep the series or not. If Shaq is healthy and can put Amare in foul trouble early then the Celtics can cruise through this series. If not, they might drop a game or two. I'll call it 4-2 at most, but more likely a 4-0 sweep. Didn't anyone tell New York you can't buy chemistry?

#4 Orlando vs #5 Atlanta:
Oddly enough, the Hawks have the most reason to believe they can pull an upset given their 3-1 record against the Magic in the regular season. But in all honesty, who really cares? Both of these teams have seen better days, and still failed to win a championship. Plus, they'll be up against the Bulls in the next round. Atlanta is limping into the playoffs, and Orlando just seems harmless for some reason. Sure, they have Dwight, but unless he starts shooting FTs like Yao, I don't think anybody is afraid of him in a close game, which there are going to be in the playoffs.

That said, for all the futility of these teams' post-season campaigns, it's actually quite hard to pick a winner. If Nelson can get hot, then the Magic reverse the regular season trend and bully the Hawks into submission, but if Orlando can't find that shooting touch, they'll be in a whole world of trouble. That said, Orlando win it 4-1, and Dwight averages at least 20-10.

So there you have it, my picks for the Eastern Conference first round. If you're a Magic/Hawks fan, sorry if that seemed harsh, but it's after midnight over here and I need some sleep.

Thanks for reading.

Tomorrow is a new Daye

I was browsing the nbadraft.net forums the other day and I came across a mock-draft where someone had the Pistons taking Harrison Barnes to fill a perceived "void" at the SF when Prince leaves town. While I'm a huge Barnes fan, the Pistons already have their heir apparent to the 3; the seeming clone of Prince himself; Austin Daye. So I thought I'd take this opportunity to highlight one of the players going under the radar in all the madness in Detroit these days.

The 6'11" Daye fits the mould of a Durant-type small-forward; good ball handler, respectable outside shooter and most importantly, very long. He's also quick for his size, due in part to his slight 200 lbs. frame. However, while the numbers aren't gaudy - the sophomore is only averaging 7.4ppg and 3.4ppg - but his efficiency is good, and he's only getting 20 minutes or so a night. Another factor that comes into play is that infamous killer instinct; the willingness to take and make a big shot at the end of games. This season, a number of times Daye has come through in the clutch with 3-balls to force overtime and other late-game heroics. For a guy who isn't getting big minutes, that's an admirable quality.

While Daye is the focus of this post, there are some other young Pistons showing promise. The injured Jonas Jerebko is a hustling, grinding PF who complements the finesse game of Detroit's lottery pick this season Greg Monroe. On the face of it, these three players mean that Detroit should have a bright enough future that their current mediocrity shouldn't hurt too much.

But wait, there are some awful contracts and disgruntled veterans hanging around which are making the rebuilding process a bit of a pain. Instead of embracing youth, GM Joe Dumars decided at the end of the 08-09 season to "reload" with Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon. To put it bluntly, the move was disastrous. Villanueva has failed miserably to earn his weighty contract, and while Gordon has provided scoring off the bench and some late game buckets, that role is better suited to a contending team, not a bottom dweller. These two relatively young under-achievers aside, there's also a core of disgruntled veterans hanging around; Prince and Hamilton principle amongst them.

Most recently, five veteran players were benched for staging a player protest, and Rip Hamilton was revealed to have launched an expletive-laden rant at Detroit coach John Kuester, destroying the perception he was an innocent victim. While I agree that Kuester isn't the right man for the job, players must be professional in their conduct.

To put it simply, the situation in Detroit is baffling; there is a mix of young talent, over-the-hill veterans, bad contracts and poor coaching. Caught somewhere between rebuilding and battling for relevance, off the top of my head, I can't think of a team in a worse situation than the Pistons; and no I haven't forgotten about the Cavaliers, but they have two lottery picks this year. The solution is simple, blow up the team, ship off the veterans and turn the team over to the youth players they have. The team as it stands isn't going anywhere, but if they can keep drafting players like Austin Daye, the future might just get a little brighter.

It's Smith Time; If I ran the Denver Nuggets...

Unless you've been living under a rock for the past day, you'd know Melo finally got his wish and is with the Knicks. Gone are Shelden Williams, Renaldo Balkman, Billups, and of course, Melo. Newly arrived are Timofey Mozgov, Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton and Wilson Chandler. While the Nuggets might lack a proven superstar, they suddenly have two teams worth of starting quality players. Let's take a look at the depth chart here;

PG - Lawson/Felton
SG - Smith/Afflalo
SF - Chandler/Gallinari
PF - Nene/Martin
C - Mozgov/Birdman

Some will call it a logjam, and they are right to a degree, but barring Martin and to some extent Nene, most of their key rotation players are relatively young, i.e. 25 or younger. However, while most in the Nuggets organisation will lament that they have lost their franchise player, one man is going to be very happy; J.R. Smith. For years he's been stuck on the bench despite a wealth of offensive talent because with Melo around there wasn't a need for another volume scorer, and players like Dahntay Jones and Arron Afflalo who were defensively minded kept him restricted to the role of "spark off the bench". Yet, despite Afflalo's improved play this season, this might be the golden opportunity J.R. has dreamed of his whole career; a chance to break into the starting line-up and get all the shots at the end of shot-clocks he desires. While the Nuggets will likely run more plays through Nene, it isn't hard to see that J.R. Smith is going to have an increased role. Looking at the list above, Smith is far and away the best offensive wing on the list, especially when entrusted with finding his own shot.

Now, I'm not saying that with more minutes J.R. will definitely produce, but this is almost a lost season, as the Nuggets will struggle to figure out their identity in the wake of Melo's departure, so why not give him the green light, and see if this unique opportunity prompts him to finally deliver on his enormous talent. Worst case scenario, the Nuggets bomb out, and enter the lottery, which might not be a bad thing, considering they might be able to snag a Harrison Barnes late in the lottery if he declares. Best case scenario, Smith has a career year and the Nuggets have found their franchise talent.

However, it isn't all that simple, because even though I brushed over it earlier, it's hard to ignore the fact that Afflalo has been playing very well this season, and is only a third year pro, despite being the same age as Smith. He is also a defensive specialist, but that could be a problem when you need a guy to avoid foul trouble. I suggest Afflalo is given the bench treatment and Chandler is paired with Smith. Chandler is a few years younger, a consummate team player and can hit the big shots when needed. However, that poses the problem of what to do with Gallinari. Danilo is an excellent sharp-shooter, but I still see him as more of a small forward than a stretch-PF given his build. While Gallo is a gun from long range, without a player of Amare's calibre to force double teams down low - no disrespect to Nene, who I'm a big fan of - Gallo might struggle with Smith on the court, and Chandler just seems like a better fit. There is the option of playing Nene at the C, and Gallinari at the four as he has been for much of his career with the Knicks, but now that the Nuggets finally have that hard-running, rebounding seven-footer in Mozgov, it would be a little ridiculous not to give Nene the chance to play his natural PF position where he won't be undersized most nights. Certainly, playing the PF Nene can be even more productive, and a two man game with Smith and Nene getting most of the shots in offense is a way of enticing him to stay.

Felton poses another problem entirely, he plays a lot better in a team with a franchise player, as in New York as opposed to Charlotte, and now he once again lacks that proven leader. Lawson should be given the chance to start, because Felton isn't part of their long-term plans, he was most likely included to screw the Knicks.

So to sum up, give Smith a green light to shine, Chandler as starter, Nene to the PF and Mozgov to the C. It might not win a championship, but it'll be a bold move, which is patently required, and should be fun to watch J.R. be given a chance.

Seeing Redd

Awful puns aside, isn't it about time people started paying attention to Michael Redd again? Two years of injury can have a devastating effect on the player who was the face of a franchise until recently and a 2008 Olympian with the Redeem Team. Just ask Tracy McGrady, who has shown with the Pistons he can still produce, even if it's in a lesser role. Maybe the Bulls should have taken a bite when they had the chance. But they might just get a second attempt; no not with McGrady, he'll likely never suit up with the Bulls, but in the titular player; Michael Redd.

As poorly as the Bucks are playing, there doesn't seem to be a place for Redd in Milwaukee once his gargantuan contract expires. They like Salmons as their 2-guard; he's younger, relatively injury free and has just been granted a new contract. Somehow, I don't think Redd sticks around as a substitute on a team that is further from a title run than we all thought after a promising run last season.

Now, as I said earlier, the Bulls already drove away one veteran SG in McGrady, but despite their bringing in Korver, Brewer and Bogans, they would be so much better with the prototypical SG who can launch bombs from deep. Redd has more in common with the G.O.A.T. than just a first name; both are the ideal 6'6" for their SG position, have won Olympic gold, and with a bit of luck, will both have played for the Chicago Bulls.

While the Bulls have exceeded expectations due to the brilliance of Rose, he can't keep up this pace forever, and a legitimate scoring threat like Redd in the back-court would be ideal. Redd might be old by NBA standards, but the Bulls have shown they are ready to make a title run right now, so that veteran presence might be just the ticket. Let's take a closer look at Redd though; he's a career 20ppg scorer, a respectable 38.4% shooter from deep and close to 45% from the field as a whole. He wouldn't command a huge price, we've seen that the market for injury plagued veterans on the tail end of their career isn't particularly lucrative. Are you telling me that the Bulls shouldn't take a chance on Redd if he can stay healthy into the off-season?

If this all pans out, perhaps Mike and Redd will share another thing in common; they'll both raise a championship banner in Chicago, even if their roles are a little different.

It's that time of year...

That's right, the trade deadline is fast bearing down upon us, and barring the obvious Melo-drama, there are a few lower-profile players needing a bit of a reshuffle for a better fit before the season runs out. So in no particular order, let's take a look at some tweaks which could benefit teams and players alike.

• Terrence Williams to the Charlotte Bobcats;
  I didn't like the Houston trade for Williams when it happened, and I still don't see how either team benefited. Now, while the Bobcats are in contention for the playoffs, most of their players have peaked, with the possible exception of Augustin, and while the coaching change has resulted in a bit of a turnaround, this team isn't scaring anybody in a seven-game series. As they are likely lottery-bound, they should try and acquire some young talent. Terrence Williams is a perfect fit to go with Augustin as a SG who can bear some of the load as playmaker and get Augustin more looks to exploit his shooting abilities. Initially, he'll play behind Stephen Jackson, but he's on the way out it seems, and Williams has too much potential to be wasting away on the Houston bench. As for who the Bobcats could ship out, Diaw might attract some interest for a Rockets team trying to make a playoff push and his versatility could serve them well, while also opening up the starting PF spot for Ty Thomas to see if he's ready to contribute with more minutes.
  
  
• Mo Williams to Sacramento;
  Mo is the sort of player who needs to be attached to a star, and would actually be perfect as a third option behind Evans and Cousins. He provides the Kings with a proven shooter to benefit from the double-teams Reke and Cousins draw. Cleveland make this move because Mo isn't a leader and the sooner they clean out that roster the better. Also, if they end up nabbing Kyrie Irving you don't have a disgruntled Mo Williams sitting on the bench. Now, while Gibson is younger and a similar type of player - shooting PG - Cleveland would be reluctant to trade away a young asset and he would have no qualms coming off the bench. The other benefit for Cleveland is that they get a chance to see what Gibson will do with the opportunity to start - for the record, I predict very little - but when you're tanking, you might as well do it right. Sac-town could keep Udrih as back-up PG behind Williams but would probably have to give up their second round draft pick and an inexpensive bench player too, to help the Cavs clean house even more.
  
  
• J.R. Smith to Chicago;
  With Afflalo having a career year, the odds of Smith eventually claiming that starting spot from him are getting slimmer. He would normally be on the court to end games, but was sitting even when Melo fouled out. His time at Denver might be running out. If Chicago throws in a first-round draft pick and James Johnson then both teams benefit; Chicago get's that scoring spark at the 2-guard they desperately need to take some pressure of Rose, and Denver get a young SF who has yet to peak and a draft pick in case Melo leaves and they have to blow everything up. While some of you might say Chicago has never had any interest in Smith, I've never understood why exactly. Yes, he's a locker-room problem on occasion, but a demanding coach like Thibs will make him accountable defensively and he could be the piece that pushes Chicago over the edge into challenging Miami for the next few years, because there aren't many SGs available at the 25th spot in the draft which bring as much as Smith, and there aren't many worth pursuing in the trading block.

So there you have it, a few risky trades which could pay dividends for each of the teams involved, and would certainly benefit the players.

Cheers, Mark.

The Answer is Barnes.

No, the question isn't who should the number one draft pick be in the 2011 draft. Despite all the hype, Barnes failed to live up to an outrageous pre-season All-American position, and in most cases is out of consideration for the number one pick, for a few, the lottery. However, he's been on the uptick lately, which I thought would happen, as he grew more comfortable in college ball and was teamed with a better playmaker in fellow freshman Kendall Marshall. While the numbers haven't been ridiculous, setting two new career highs in points scored in a span of three games show that UNC and Barnes are finally figuring things out. It boils down to this; there is more substance to Barnes' lofty pre-season expectations than people realise.

Of all the players eligible for the 2011 draft, Barnes remains the one with the most potential as a franchise player in my opinion. Now, some may say that in terms of sheer potential, Perry Jones III is oozing with it, but when I see an inconsistent player, I see potential just waiting to be wasted. That won't be a problem with Barnes; he's the hardest working player in this class, is mature for his age and has a very high basketball IQ. No Barnes won't be the number one pick, in fact, it's likely if he declares this year he'll struggle to make the lottery... which might just be the best thing to happen to him.

For you see, there's another team in North Carolina that started off slow and now seems to be figuring things out. That's right, the Charlotte Bobcats. I read an article a while back saying that Michael Jordan desperately needed to find a young star to be the face of the franchise, and while the team was struggling immensely to start the season, they might have bottomed out enough to do so. However, they righted the ship with a coaching change and they are making a strong push to avoid the lottery for a second year in the row, probably slipping in with the 15th or 16th pick in the draft. Usually, this is the worst position to be in; mediocrity. Not quite good enough to win it all, not quite bad enough to get that franchise changer.

However, in this case, that might be just the right position to snag that star player who can take over as face of the franchise from Jordan. The answer is Barnes. As I said earlier, he has all the raw skills and work ethic to be the best player in this draft class, but given his struggles this season at UNC his draft position likely won't reflect that if he declares. Finally, here is a player that if pushed by Jordan will simply push himself to get better rather than fading like a certain other player drafted by the G.O.A.T. This is the putty that Jordan and the team need to create an identity for a rather uninspiring franchise in the Bobcats.

It would be easy to pitch this to the fans; an intelligent, mature, clean kid from small-town Iowa who played for UNC's beloved Tar Heels to boot. He's got North Carolina and the Bobcats written all over him. Yet, there are some other factors to consider; their only All-Star in Gerald Wallace plays the same position, but he doesn't have that same star potential Barnes has, rather he could serve as a mentor for a few years while Barnes develops his game and is ready to explode, much like Wallace once did in Sacramento. That said, Wallace is the perfect mentor for Barnes in preparing him to be the face of the franchise, and instil in him the defensive principles which allowed Wallace's Bobcats to remain undefeated against Lebron's Cavaliers last season.

Yet, the biggest problem facing this scenario is that others are cottoning on to Barnes' recently improved play, they are figuring out he might not be as over-hyped as he was declared early, and with the way the Bobcats are playing at the moment, the odds of their getting an early enough pick are slim if Barnes and UNC keep winning at the rate they have been. Especially in such a weak draft class. But who knows, maybe this will be one of those magical Derrick Rose situations, where the right player for the right city lands in their laps, or even a less magical Lebron and Cleveland situation. One thing is certain though, if all this falls into place, Barnes won't end up stunting on a Jumbotron.

The best chance for Jordan to find some star-power to change the fate of the Bobcats in this draft? The answer is Barnes.

A Kicks Odyssey; from Newbie to Sneakerhead

It occurred to me that I hadn't posted in a while, mainly because I've been distracted by my distinct lack of a playing shoe I'm pleased with at the moment, and after the holidays and my birthday I have a bit of cash to splurge. New kicks sound like a good idea, so I figure I'd give you an insight into my rules for buying basketball shoes, and the brief history of buying sneakers which led to their formation. Every shoe I bought taught me something about the art of sneaker selection. Now, I don't profess to be an expert, but I no longer consider myself a rookie and might be able to steer some newcomers in the right direction. If I'm lucky I'll prevent someone buying the wrong pair of kicks, and keep the readers entertained at the same time.

Let's start with my first pair of shoes in recent history;

#1: Adidas TS Creator Low (Gilbert Arenas)
I was in the market for a low-top shoe, because hightops weren't really my thing, and I saw these in the back of a magazine. Kobe IVs weren't around then, and these were the only low-top shoes I could find. I was young and impressionable, so with no regard for checking whether it ran true to size, and only a vague impression of what size I was in basketball shoes as a whole I ordered from NBA.com. When they arrived I was ecstatic; my very own basketball shoes! Just one problem though, they didn't fit. They were just a touch too short, which lead to sever discomfort in my first wearing and didn't improve after they were worn in. That said, they were very comfortable, and relatively lightweight given the degree of cushioning in the sole. I later found out I had bought the off-court version, with a more traditionally constructed on-court version released shortly thereafter. However, I wasn't keen on buying another set of the same shoe, so I gave up on adidas for the time being. So what did I learn from this purchase? Be wary of ordering online if you're a rookie sneakerhead, know your size for basketball shoes and find out whether the shoe is true-size, narrow, or wide.

#2: Nike Zoom Kobe IV
As I said above, I was in the market for a low-top, and I was fortunate that I read about these kicks in SLAM just after my run-in with the Arenas shoe. Deciding against ordering online, I went down to my local Footlocker and was able to get the right size this time (half a size up for extra width). Now, I wore these shoes longer than any other shoe I've worn before or since, and as many of you know, these shoes revolutionised the role of low-tops in today's sneaker scene. One thing I did learn though was to read a review of the shoe before you buy them; in understanding the design philosophy I had a better grasp of what the shoe would offer and whether it suited my needs.

#3: Air Jordan XI "Space Jams"
These were special. For the first time in my life as a sneakerhead I lined up for three hours outside my local Footlocker, swapped stories with the other people in line, and nabbed a pair. I was looking at trying out Jordan Brand shoes and having read a bad review (I was already learning haha) of the AJ XXIVs I decided to go with a proven performer in the AJ XIs. I'll admit, I was a little curious to see how the shoes Jordan won 72 in performed in comparison to the new age Kobe IVs. Now, the big mistake I made with these was to be careless while wearing them. At the time, I wasn't interested in them as a collector's item, just as a pair of basketball shoes I wanted to wear. So the lesson here is that when you're buying rare shoes be very careful when balling in them; mine now have a nasty tear near the sole from when I kicked off my shoes, having been in the habit for years of using one foot to remove the over. Please, respect your shoes or you'll regret it.

#4: Air Jordan 2010
Like I said, I was keen to try out Jordan Brand shoes, and if the old school wasn't cutting it, I was drooling at the fresh, cutting edge 25th anniversary Jordan shoes. Their look was amazing, and I had immense respect for the brand, and of course, His Airness. My philosophy was "if it's good enough for him it's good enough for me". I actually read a decent review of the shoes saying they were top of the line, but I didn't consider my specific needs. They were comfortable in the store, but I found them to be a bit heavier than I anticipated when I was actually on the court. Now, I'm only 5'9" so my game is built on speed not power. A note about Jordan Brand shoes, for the most part they are based on a heavier guard who needs a fair bit of support, so anyone under six feet should probably avoid them. A design flaw I noticed was the tongue of the shoe always coming loose, the asymmetrical ankle support compromised the lock-down of the shoe, which bugged me as time wore on. The AJ 2010s are still a great shoe, but they didn't fit my specific needs, which is an important lesson to learn; don't buy a shoe because of who wears them, buy them because they suit you personally.

#5: Nike Zoom Hyperdunk 2010
I was drooling about these shoes, I'll admit. The 2008 Hyperdunks were my dream shoe, but by the time I got into the sneaker game all the pairs in my size were sold out which was a major bummer. When the line resumed I was sold and despite the rave reviews I'd heard about the Hyperfuse, better heel support in the Hyperdunk swayed me as I had recently recovered from an injury which made heel support a priority. Now, these shoes ticked all the boxes, they were second in the line of shoes (third if you count the Hyperize) and thus corrected for the deficiencies of its predecessor(s). They fit my needs as incredibly light with great traction for sharp cuts and defense. However, they were ultimately doomed by the odd placement of shoe sizing. You see, my uncle had connections with the Nike warehouse in Melbourne and said he'd get them for 50% off when he went on a trip there. I asked him for a size 9.5, or a 9 in a pinch. He managed to find a pair of 9.5s in a good colourway, but said he'd have a look around for some more of his stuff before taking them to the counter. When he returned to get them they had "disappeared", and the closest size he had was a 8.5. It was such good value that I told him to get them regardless, figuring I could always onsell them. As it turns out, they gave me blisters so bad when I wore them that I don't dare wear them again. I later found out the 9.5s were there all along, but he was looking at a number 7 written on the inserts where he thought the sizing would be. Alas, a waste of a good pair of shoes, but another lesson learnt; don't leave the fate of your shoes in the hands of well-meaning or well-connected acquaintances, they will likely screw it up.

#6: Reebok Zigtech Slash
I'll admit, this was an unmitigated disaster. I broke all the rules with this purchase, but after the disappointment with the Hyperdunks I decided to break away from the grip of Nike, and having just read a review damning the cushioning of the adiZero Rose, I decided to try out the Zigtech for something a bit different on an impulse. Big mistake. However, another lesson learned, along with another few re-learned. The new lesson was, be wary of new technology; if it was new, it was probably unpredictable, it may sound good in theory, but it's best to be patient and give the designers time to work out the kinks before jumping on the bandwagon. I re-learned not to buy into the hype, not to buy a shoe based on who wore it, and to make sure I read a review. After a few wearings I wasn't convinced, they were great in the open court, I was running faster than I ever had due to the Zigtech feature, but they weren't great in other aspects, I was having doubts. Sure enough, a week later a review came out damning the shoe as a failed attempt to adapt a running shoe to basketball which had been rushed. I was inclined to agree.

So here I stand, I've been wearing the AJ 2010s in the interim, but I'm keen to move on to some new shoes. I'm considering a number of shoes at the moment. The Kobe VIs are first on my list; the Kobe line was improved with each shoe, but the replacement of Flywire with that weird skin stuff makes me wary (new technology), I'm going to wait for a review before I commit. Next are the AJ 2011s; I know, I said the Jordan's weren't great for players my size, but these are designed for Wade, and he has a slashing game like myself, plus they look pretty awesome from what I've seen, will have to wait for a review, the long wait might put me off. Going to old reliable with the Hyperdunks is another option, they are super light, have great lockdown and despite the bad fit still played pretty darn well. I'm also keen to try out some adidas and the Rose 1.5 looks promising.

Alas, as with many other aspects of life, patience is a virtue when buying basketball shoes also. So for now I'll rotate through the Kobe IVs, AJ 2010s, and Reebok Zigtech Slash. I hope my sad tale has helped some of you, or at the very least drawn a few laughs with my tales of almost comical ineptitude. Let's hope writing this means I won't forget these lessons so soon after the Reebok disaster, and make wiser purchases in the future.

Cheers, Mark.