Defensive Player of the Year predictions

With nbadraft.net down for a server update or something to that effect, I figure I'd do another blog post to keep my mind off my U16s grand final game tomorrow morning. Let's hope we can come up big. But this isn't about my personal life, it's about the NBA.

One thing I learned about the NBA in this off-season is that man-to-man defense, when played well enough, is simply the best in basketball. Teams in the world cup tried all sorts of zones and other nonsense to get ahead, but the US team stuck to the basics and relied on grit and intensity to get the job done. So here are my nominations for DPoY...

Honourable mentions; Lebron James, Rajon Rondo

5. Andre Iguodala: A lot of this comes down to Evan Turner's performance; if he and the rest of the 'Sixers can get back on track then Iggy can be the savage, lock-down defender he was in the FIBA world cup. Keeping in mind he was often playing against 4s and will be guarding 2s and 3s in the NBA he could have a strong year and be a bit of a wildcard. However, as with most wildcards, it is going to need a whole bunch of things going right.

4. Gerald Wallace: How was it that a team which was swept in the first round of the playoffs had such a good record against the number one ranked team in the League last season? Well, his name is Crash, and he did a number of Lebron and the Cavs every time they played. This man is all hustle, and has improved each year under Larry Brown. It wasn't his skill (though considerable) that earned him an All-Star nomination, but his grit and intensity; which just so happens to be the most important thing on the defensive end. A lot of people have Charlotte dropping out, but a fresh commitment from Larry Brown should see the stocks of both the Bobcats and Gerald Wallace rise.

3. Eric Gordon: Okay, before you all close the window and never read the blog again, hear me out; I have never seen such a dominant defensive effort by a guard as I did with Eric Gordon in the world cup. Those of you who followed Team USAs efforts know the one I'm talking about. I can't remember what happened to set him off, but Gordon got pissed, and he absolutely terrorised his opponent for almost the entire shot clock, I'm surprised they didn't have to stop the play to clean up the puddle forming at the dude's feet. There were hands everywhere, and Gordon finished with an emphatic rejection to gain possession for the US again. Now, I know it was only one play and all, but think about the Clippers' situation and Gordon's role on the team; Kaman is coming off an All-Star season, some dude name Blake Griffin is going to be back in uniform and Baron Davis is still kicking around. Gordon is more well known for his shooting, but he showing how dedicated he was to defense, and how impressive he can be on that end of the floor. If he learns from this experience and applies himself as a defensive ace he might just be in with a shot.

2. Josh Smith: Okay, athleticism is all well and good in transition or on a dunk attempt, but when used correctly, it can make one heck of a defender. Lebron might be the better player (duh), but Smith is every bit the athlete he is. He was monstrous this past season, and with so many people writing off his Hawks after they failed to improve in the off-season expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder. Now that he's done hocking up 3s, he'll hopefully get the crowd going with blocked shots. If anyone has a legitimate shot at knocking Howard off the pedestal it is Smith. That said...

1. Dwight Howard: It ain't happening this season. As the two time defending champ, barring a major injury I can't see Howard getting any less athletic or losing his defensive instincts. While he has a very limited offensive skillset and shoots free-throws about as well as the last "Superman", he is considered one of the best players in the League, which gives hope to incoming offensively-challenged shot-blockers like Hassan Whiteside.

So there you have my predictions, again they might be a little biased, but I feel there is a strong case for each of these candidates. That said, this is one of the hardest awards to narrow down to 5-7; I could easily have given 10 or more honourable mentions, there are that many ace defenders who could step up. Ah well, what are you gonna do?

Cheers,

Omphalos

MIP predictions

Hey guys, so we are deep, deep into the off-season right now and trades and signings are mostly settled down. So I figured I'd do a few pre-season predictions starting with Most Improved Player predictions. This is a hard one to pin down because sometimes they factor in draft order and "expected growth" when giving out the award, so its difficult for a high draft pick to get it. But what the hell, let's go for my top 5 MIP predictions.

Honourable Mentions: Lamarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez

5. Nicolas Batum: Batum has great athleticism, and if he can just put together a 70+ game season he should capitalise on a wealth of talent and potential. With Webster and Outlaw gone, Luke Babbitt is the only threat to his PT at the 3 which can be either a good thing or a bad thing. However, a strong showing for France in the FIBA World Championship should give him a confidence boost and a running start into the '10-'11 season. However, playing with All-Star Brandon Roy will limit his responsibility, so barring another injury plague he won't be given enough of a role to take home the trophy.

4. Martell Webster: Another Portland player who was restricted to being a shooter in McMillan's system he has been given a chance to be a leader on a very young Minnesota team and should start at the shooting guard spot. He's only 23 and when healthy has contributed well in his 5 years on the League. The pressure from draftee Wesley Johnson and teammate Corey Brewer should keep him motivated too.

3. Anthony Randolph: This guy has been talked about as a Lamar Odom type player since he came into the League, others thinking he can be a Hall of Famer. Finally traded from the horrendous Warriors team where his playing time was erratic at best he should be given the nod to start at either the 2, 3 or 4. However, STATs presence will likely stifle his chances to shine to the fullest at this stage.

2. J.J. Hickson: Left holding the ball in a Cavaliers team sans LeBron this young power forward will be given all the playing time he needs as Gilbert embraces rebuilding. He was dominant in SL and should flourish given more consistent playing time and a more creative coach in Byron Scott.

1. Michael Beasley: Okay, so he did a lot of weed in Miami, but he seems to have put those days behind him, and after seeing a recent clip of him playing at a charity game, I've never seen him so animated or motivated. His game will suit the triangle if he can learn the system and despite Love's stellar play with the USA Team, Beasley is the only player on the roster with superstar talent, despite his inconsistency. Without Wade ahead of him as number one scoring option Beasley should return to his college days when he was a stud.

So there you have it, my predictions for MIP; a cross between what I'd like to see happen and what I think will happen.

Feel free to share your thoughts or predictions in the comment section.

Is this the end?

So as you may have realised based on my earlier posts, I'm not particularly happy with the current scene in the NBA post-Decision. However, if someone were to ask me whether the NBA was finished and whether they should tune back in 6 years from now I'd tell them yes. But only because a real fan wouldn't even need to ask and if they can live without the NBA they probably should. You see, from now on, the NBA for me isn't about winning championships. Barring a colossal clash of ego between the Miami 3, I can't see anybody else challenging them once they get on a roll. So I'll take solace in the little things. Being Australian, our culture celebrates the underdog and is always looking to cut down the "tall poppy"; so my Aussie side loves that every other team in the League just became an underdog who I can root for against the clear favourite in Miami.

That said, there are a few players, teams and situations which will be very interesting to see grow and develop, and quite a few will be in their prime when the Miami 3 are over the hill. So here's a quick rundown of the 23 things I'm looking forward to in the next six years in no particular order:

1. Tyreke and Cousins era:
   
   These guys have the potential to be Kobe/Shaq of this generation. Reke is already amongst the best closers in the game and Cousins has an air of dominance on the offensive end which puts him amongst the top scoring centres before the season even starts. Seeing these guys grow and develop for 6 years until they are in their primes and ready to get some rings is going to be awesome.
2. Kobe's Last Dance: This coming season will be the toughest test Kobe Bryant has ever had to face; it is also likely his last chance to win a championship with Phil Jackson. Despite being a Laker Hater, I've got the utmost respect for Kobe Bryant the basketball player and if anyone in the League today can will his team to victory against a stacked team like Miami, it'll be the Black Mamba.
3. Brandon Roy and the Blazers:
   The Blazers are one of the teams which have managed to build a very deep, very talented team through the draft. If only they could get it on the court. While Roy is too old to simply wait out the Miami 3 for his chance at a ring, the Portland squad will be able to keep the game close, and Roy is arguably the best closer on either team. This comes down to whether or not Oden, Roy and Batum can put together 70+ games as a unit, but give them a year or two to come together and develop and watch what happens. Look for Roy to be in MVP discussions soon.
4. Kevin Durant:
   This kid has so much potential that he needs his own number, because while the Thunder are promising, Durantula has already delivered. I honestly think KD has a chance to enter GOAT discussions before the end of his career for a couple of reasons; his stroke is pure, his scoring comes within the flow of the offense, he has great rivals and competition to hone his skills against. If he were able to sneak even a couple of rings away from Miami in the next 6 seasons it would be miraculous; but even if he doesn't, he'll be 27 when those contracts expire and at the peak of his basketball playing abilities. In contrast, LBJ and Wade will be 31 and 34. Let the rings flow.
5. OKC Thunder:
   Exciting young team laden with talent. We all know what Durant can do, Westbrook is a freak athlete and Ibaka has the potential to be one of the best shot-blockers in the League in a few years. The battle between the Thunder and Portland for top seed in the West in a few years will be a sight to behold.
6. Western Conference Finals:
   The NBA Finals aren't the main attraction for me anymore; the WCF are. Portland, LA, Denver, OKC and Memphis are all young teams looking to rise up and challenge Miami.
7. Rajon Rondo and the Boston Celtics:
   My regulars will know I love Rondo and the Celtics. But they are pretty much prehistoric these days and are still the best chance to beat the Heat in a 7 game series. When the Boston Three Party ends though Rondo will be left with the keys to a team which will need to be rebuilt from scratch. I hope he'll stick around and let them build around him, and a core of Rondo, Glen Davis, Avery Bradley could make the playoffs in the East.
   
8. Wall vs Rose vs Westbrook:
   Three big, freakishly athletic point guards with a team in their hands. The sheer number of quality PGs in the League and who will be in the next 6 years will be awesome to behold, but expect these three to rise to the top in 6 years time.
9. Wall and the Wizards:
   Wall has been hyped liked crazy, and followed in the footsteps of DRose to be drafted 1st overall. However, despite the ghost of Arenas hanging around, Wall has a solid young frontcourt around him in McGee and Blatche who could reach the playoffs as early as this season.
   
10. DeRozan:
    Ridiculous athleticism and hops like a young Vince Carter. If he stays loyal and they build around him, Bargnani and Davis they could make the Raptors a force to be reckoned with in time.
11. Boston vs Miami, 2010:
    The first game of the regular season couldn't be more fitting; the old 3 vs the new 3. Throw in Shaq facing off against "the King" and you've got one hell of a matchup. Boston to win in a blowout (haha I wish...).
12. Durant vs Beasley:
    Now, a lot of you will be scratching your heads about this one, but I honestly believe that Beasley can be a star to rival Durant with enough minutes and responsibility. Minny might just be desperate enough to give them to him. Two offensively gifted, scrawny SFs? Yes please.
13. Gilchrist vs Barnes:
    Both of these guys have similar height and characteristics; they work hard, have great all-round games and are only separated in age by a year. Wherever they end up, they'll be given big minutes and the reins to the team; I can't wait.
14. Kentucky vs Duke 2010/2011:
    Both teams have a bunch of highly touted recruits coming in headlined by Brandon Knight and Kyrie Irving. Both have brilliant coaches in Coach K and Coach Cal. Expect them to meet up in the NCAA tournament at some point and have a great rivalry in the League too.
    
15. The return of the Blakers:
    The second time in recent history that a number 1 pick has been cut down by injury (see: Greg Oden). Having suffered a stress fracture myself this year I can tell you they are no fun. But if Blake is anything like me he'll have learned a lot and come back raring to go. While the Clippers aren't going to compete for a playoff spot right away, give Bledsoe, Gordon, Aminu, Griffin and Kaman a few years to gel and you've got yourself a starting lineup which could make the Lakers the second best team in LA.
16. The Knicks experiment:
    STAT made a big move in leaving to the Knicks before anyone else, but they've surrounded him with a fairly capable team. Unfortunately, STAT will likely be forced into playing C, but this should suit the D'Antoni system well. Starting lineup of Felton, Chandler, Gallinari, Randolph and Stoudemire is not too shabby.
17. Carmelo Anthony:
    I won't add "and the Nuggets" here because I'm not sure if he will stay. However, with LeBron sharing the ball and going ring-hunting, Melo has his best chance yet to win the regular season MVP. He is still a better scorer than Durant and much more physically imposing. Also, every time he and LeBron face off I get tingles. This dude is going to be fun to watch no matter where he goes/stays.
18. Cleveland Cavaliers:
    I gotta admit, I'm curious. They have a coach known for overachieving in Byron Scott and a reasonably talented team still remaining. I expect a commitment to team play and D which could see these guys be the Houston Rockets of next season. However, they need to build around their younger players like Sessions, Moon, Hickson and Varejao. Don't be surprised if these guys end up around 9/10 in the East.
19. New Jersey Nets:
    I have a lot of respect for a coach who can get his team to the Finals (see above) even if they don't win. Despite the lack of huge names, they actually have an intriguing lineup for the future. T-Will and Damion James have the potential to be a devastating wing combo in a few years, almost like Jordan/Pippen Zero. Although they have something the JP classic didn't - a legitimate scoring C. However, with recent acquisitions at the 2 and 3 in Morrow and Outlaw it remains to be seen whether these guys will get the minutes to grow and develop. Definitely a young exciting team to watch in the future.
20. Charlotte Bobcats:
    A lot of people are writing them off as rubbish, but I see them making the playoffs this year in the East. But the real reason I'm looking forward to seeing them is because I'm a huge Jordan fan and I want to see how he steers this team long-term. If Larry Brown actually commits and sticks around for an extended tenure, then these guys might just go somewhere. Henderson was impressive in the SL and should be ready to take the reins from Jackson at the 2 in a few years. Wallace is a dynamo and Tyrus Thomas could be a superstar if he ever got it together. Augustine will finally get the starting spot and also has potential. I disagreed in the move to get rid of Chandler, but what can you do. Don't forget that they signed Shaun Livingston, who is still young and talented enough to bounce back from his injury. The Bobcats have made the playoffs now, but Jordan needs to think long-term; the team is aging and in the current climate the 'Cats are no chance of winning a title in the next 6 years. Embrace change, develop the youngsters and build through the draft. Hopefully things will all pan out.
21. Pacers:
    Collison was a brilliant acquisition and Paul George will probably be a starter at the 3 in 6 years. Hibbert has the requisite size to dominate most other Cs in the League. So as you can see, they've got intriguing prospects for the future. However, none moreso than Lance Stephenson. Now, I know he has gotten some bad press lately and is facing criminal charges, but I'll wait until the judge's decision before I make a ruling of any sort. That he was released without bail is a good sign. From a purely basketball perspective, Lance could very easily become the star of this team and allow Granger to be second option as he ages. I hope Lance can pull a Kidd and fly straight after this latest offence.
22. Philly:
    I always thought Philly were a pretty rubbish team, and last season sorta proved that. I am of the opinion that a running, up-tempo team probably won't win a championship without the ability to play the half-court game also. That said, if Turner is as good as advertised and Holiday expands on his SL performance then Iguodala might not have to be 1st option on offense and the team might actually make the playoffs again. Holiday, Turner, Iguodala, Young, Brand, Speights... these guys can ball. Its up to Collins to bring it all together.
23. DRose and the Chicago Bulls:
    The Bulls had to be #23. Rose has amazed me this past season in his quiet confidence and unwillingness to back down. Add to the fact that the Bulls solved a lot of their problems this off-season and the Bulls have a chance to top Miami in a few years. Rose is a legit superstar, Noah is that hustle guy every team needs, Deng can score as a 3rd option and Boozer is a low post presence they've been after. Brewer brings D and Korver shooting at the 2 with Gibson and Johnson coming off the bench you have a deep team with a proven playoff performer in Rose at the helm. If anyone can bring a ring back to Chi-City it'll be Rose and his Bulls.

So there you have it, that took me a lot longer than I thought it would, and it was a lot harder than I thought, but I managed to find 23 things to look forward to in the Miami era. If even half of them live up to expectations you can call me a happy fan.

- Omphalos.

What a tangled web we weave.

So I thought I would wait for the dust to settle before I made another post because the League is in a state of such turmoil at the moment. I meant to follow up the draft, but what happened a week later blew it all out of the water. So here I go, ranting about various topics as they come to me, because there's no way I'd be able to fully cover what has happened in the past few weeks without writing a thesis on it (and I probably could). To help aid in my quest I'll be splitting it into a few sections; trades, free agents, the draft, Summer League.

Trades

• Some of you might have read my Beasley post a while back, and as predicted he was shipped out. Now, he didn't end up where I thought he would but the important thing is he left. So now that he is with the T'Wolves what can we expect from him? He'll be fighting Wesley Johnson and Martell Webster for the starting spot at the 3 and probably playing some limited minutes at the 4. However, Webster is either going to start at the 2 or come off the bench like he did in Portland. I hope Webster gets the nod to start at the 2 because I'm not big on Johnson or Brewer as starters. Johnson is better suited to the 3 than the 2, but I think Beasley will get in there because of his experience and upside, whereas Johnson is already 23 and has seemingly maxed out. The Wolves have nothing to lose and everything to gain by giving Beasley minutes. If he plays well, then he has the potential to be top 5 in the League based on his talent and Rubio is that much more likely to actually come over to the States with Minny.If it doesn't, well they were worst in the West already so the only way is up. But I think the triangle will benefit him and being on a team without anybody with franchise talent will suit him well.

Free agents

• Where to begin? Let's start with the big one. What was LeBron thinking? I think most of us will admit we thought he would leave, but the Miami 3 was something I never thought would happen. People questioned his drive before, but clearly he is without any competitive fire if he is going to ride the coattails of Wade and Bosh to championships. Put simply, he copped out. The League is worse for it regardless of what happens; if it works out then there will be zero competition in the East and probably the Finals in a few years when Kobe's body gives in. If it fails horribly and the Heat suck, then Miami will be stuck in a terrible situation and the League will see the downfall of two of its biggest stars. For the record, Bosh and Wade aren't at fault, they would have worked well together. This is all on LeDouche. It will be a few years before any team will challenge, but more on that later.
  
• Bulls did a great job upgrading at the 2 and 4 by signing multiple free agents. Ronnie Brewer is a defensive minded SG who should complement Rose well and is probably an upgrade over Captain Kirk due to his size and athleticism. Korver provides perimeter shooting and should benefit enormously from the attention Rose will receive. Boozer gives them a low post presence and complements defensively minded Noah well.
  
• Knicks did well to pick up STAT and have a shot at Melo/Paul in the future. Felton was definitely an upgrade at point but they still need a big C so that Gallinari can play the 3 and STAT can avoid starting at the 5.
• Grizz overpaid for Gay but kept their young core together.
  
• Joe Johnson should have left Atlanta but the Hawks don't need to sign anybody to improve, just need to adjust their positions. Actually, they desperately need a true C. Rumour has it Shaq is keen, which would be perfect for the big fella and the Hawks. Horford at the 4, Smith at the 3 and Johnson at the 2. Those starters will rumble with anyone in the league.
• My Celtics upgraded their roster by signing JO and keeping their group together.

Draft/Summer League

• Obviously this is a vast area to cover briefly, but a few picks seemed out of place; Hayward at 9, Udoh at 6 (are you freaking kidding me?) and Stephenson dropping that far was ridiculous. Knicks must be feeling like idiots for letting him slip after he played in the SL.
• Wall is looking as good as everyone said he was and the Kings did a great job picking up Cousins. Orton seems like a bust at this point and I doubt he will ever be a starter in this league. Bledsoe is going to take over the reins in LA sooner or later and it will be for the best. BD is a has-been and with their young core the Clippers could actually go somewhere. Aminu needs a jump shot and just general growth. Patterson is going to be the solid rotation guy we thought he would be.
  
• Favors is looking really raw!
• Stephenson can play point! Who would have thought. Can't wait for Lance and Wall to go head to head for the first time in the pros. Former SLAM cover buddies couldn't have gone any further in opposite directions since then if they tried. Lance needed to drop though because now he has one hell of a chip on his shoulder. Wish he'd made it to LA, but the Pacers are looking young and exciting nowadays.
• Nets drafted well by getting Damion James who will do well with T-Williams. Not sure how this will work with the Outlaw, Farmar and Morrow signings though. Morrow would have been a better fit in Chicago as they desperately needed a starter. These guys have trade value so we'll just have to see.
• OKC addressed their biggest need with Aldrich and will only improve this year.

So there are my thoughts on what has happened, but rest assured, I'll be making another NBA related post soon covering my thoughts for the next 5-6 years and the 2011 season.

Cheers,

Omphalos.

NBA Draft Coverage 2010

Hi all, I'll be making a live blog report of the 2010 NBA Draft at 7.30 am on the 25/6/2010. My comments and analysis of each pick will be below.

Official Omphalos Mock Draft 2010

So in the leadup to the 2010 draft I finally got around to creating a mock draft over on www.nbadraft.net. Keep in mind I draft based on team need not the "best player available" system. Honestly, if teams stopped reloading so often and stuck to their guns by trying to build a complete team with their lottery picks rather than grabbing for talent there could be more parity in the league. Oh well. I've only done the first round because the second is just too hazy given how little college I was able to watch. Expand it for comments on each pick.

http://www.nbadraft.net/nba_mock_drafts/39652/

Cheers,

Omphalos

Greener Pastures

I always thought there was something fishy about Jeff Green when I saw him guarding Kobe Bryant and hocking up 3 balls. Given the lack of airtime OKC got I didn't know too much about him. Just today I was listening on NBA.com in a discussion about the future of OKC and they said he was a 3 playing the 4 spot. Now, by all means he would be a valuable young 3 for most teams, but with KD finding his groove there, it seems unlikely that Jeff will be getting many minutes at the 3. What OKC need is a scoring PF. Jeff Green isn't going to be that guy, and with KD playing so many minutes he won't be having an impact off the bench if he moved to backup SF.

So then I got thinking, and it occurred to me that Green would be a perfect fit for the T'Wolves. It seems that Minnesota won't be successful without a true C, and Jefferson isn't it. He is undersized and would get eaten alive in the Playoffs in the West at that position. With Kevin Love (another PF) looking to get better and being more of a triangle PF, a trade of Green for Jefferson would be a great fit. It would allow Minnesota options in the draft. With Green and Love locked in at the 3 and 4, Flynn manning the point until Ricky gets over here they have options at the number 4 pick, 16, and 23. With Jefferson traded, they will have a very young core which can develop together and be a threat in years to come.

So let's look at their options at the 4; it comes down to a C or SG. Wesley Johnson or Demarcus Cousins could be a great fit at those positions. However, Cousins has a few red flags, and the culture at the T'Wolves probably won't inspire him to straighten out. Johnson is ready to ball right away, and has already played well with Johnny Flynn at Syracuse in the past. With the 16 pick they can take either a project like Hassan Whiteside or Daniel Orton. Cole Aldrich would be perfect but it is unlikely that he will fall that far. If they draft Cousins with the 4 then someone like Damion James could be the perfect fit for the 2-guard. With his reliance on the mid-range jumper, a highly efficient shooting percentage and a defensive mindset he could be part of an OKC-like turnaround in just a few years.

Either of these lineups would be great to watch in the future, and could easily threaten for a playoff spot in a few years;

PG - Rubio/Flynn
SG - Johnson
SF - Green
PF - Love
C - Whiteside

or

PG - Flynn
SG - James
SF - Green
PF - Love
C - Cousins.

However, OKC seems committed to keeping its young core together. But of these young picks, Green seems the most likely to be moved.

Combination theory

These days it isn't enough to just have one megawatt star if you want to be successful (see Cleveland Cavaliers); there is a lot of talk about needing a one-two punch. But this isn't just a recent trend, combination theory has been around for decades. So let's take a look at which combinations have been successful in the past and how teams could emulate them in light of this free agent feeding frenzy.

• PG and C: This combo has worked countless times before, because these are the two hardest positions to fill, and when you have talented players in both positions things get a lot easier for you. Just ask Magic and Kareem. The greatest point guard in the history of the game and the all-time leading scorer knew how to win games and championships. At the moment, there are few combinations like this in the League enjoying any real success, which is mainly because of the dropoff in quality centres. The NBA is in a transition period where a lot of centres are either dinosaurs or children. If the Nets had managed to land John Wall we could have had Magic-Kareem 2.0 but I guess for now we'll have to settle for what we have got. What we have is Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson. While Superman's offensive game is still in its infancy, he and Nelson have built a chemistry that leads to more embarrassing alley-oops than should be legal in the pro ranks. While they have yet to capture a championship, they looked to be the best team in basketball towards the end of the season, and given growth from Howard could be even tougher to beat. A healthy Bogut and a more mature Brandon Jennings are also nothing to sneeze at. With no superstar Cs or PGs on the market this off-season, free agency isn't likely to have an impact.
  

• PG and PF: Once again we have a little and a big. PFs are generally more mobile than Cs and are more offensively minded. Given the prevalence of the pick and roll in the NBA today, a scoring PF is becoming increasingly important. However, this combo has had success in the past, and even if Hall of Fame duo Karl Malone and John Stockton could never quite wrest the Larry O'Brien Trophy from MJ, two trips to the Finals are two more than most players get in their careers. The same can be said for Kevin Johnson and Charles Barkley in Phoenix who met Mike in the '93 Finals.There are a number of PG/PF combos thriving in the NBA today; just look at runner-up Western Conference team Phoenix Suns with Nash and Stoudemire, or Tony Parker and Tim Duncan who upset second-seeded Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the playoffs this year. However, with a foursome of offensively minded PFs on the free agent market in Bosh, Boozer, Stoudemire and Lee and an abundance of young talented PGs on teams with cap space, the right pairing could immediately catapult a team into title contention. Bosh, Stoudemire, Boozer and Lee would all benefit a team immensely in that order but are pretty much interchangeable so I'll just name the point guards looking for running mates; Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, John Wall. These three Calipari alumni join Rajon Rondo, CP3 and Deron Williams as the future of the league at the point guard position. Give any of them one of those four PFs and things are looking good for the future. I'm aware that Dirk is also a free agent, but I don't see him as very likely to leave Dallas so I didn't bother mentioning it. It might be too soon to call it, but Baron Davis and Blake Griffin could explode in L.A. too.
  

• SG and C: Yes, there is a bit of a pattern here with the little + big = success formula. Having a superstar SG and a dominant C to get boards and offensive rebounds means headaches for other teams. If you double team low then who will stop the SG from killing you? If you want an example of where this has worked in the past I'd point you in the direction of the Black Mamba and Shaq. Three titles and four Finals appearances in four years has to mean something. If they could have got along it could have been a few more. However, like I said above, the glory days of Cs are seemingly gone and in an earlier post I talked about the downfall of the SG position. The best chance of this happening would be if Rudy Gay bolts from Memphis and OJ and Gasol the younger step up. I feel like I should mention Bynum and Kobe here as Andrew is a big part of the Lakers success, but the focus is clearly on Pau at this point in time. If by some miracle the Lakers do what I hope and get their hands on Lance we could have something to look forward to in the future.
  
  
• SG and PF: This one isn't really one for the ages; it is a more recent trend for a SG to team up with a PF and win a title. Take a look at Pau Gasol and Kobe though and tell me it doesn't work. Those two will be around for a few years yet, and if Kobe can be healthy for the playoffs it is likely they'll be getting a ring or two more (if not this year) because the Celtics can't stay healthy and together forever. A certain recently signed Jordan Brand athlete could be the source of another devastating SG/PF combo in Miami. If Wade can convince one of the free agent PFs to come on down then we might just have a winner. Given the amount of cap space the Heat have and the likelihood that at least two will be leaving (Lee and Bosh) this is one of the more likely combinations to actually happen. Lee's blue-collar mentality suits the Heat's rep as hardest working team in the NBA and after toiling away in a useless Knicks team he'll be glad to give Wade the limelight and the ball if it means winning.
  

• SG and SF: Spread your wings and fly. It is no coincidence that the centrepiece of the only successful double wing partnership was nicknamed "His Airness". This is it people, MJ and Pippen. 6-0 in Finals they played together, and all without a dominant big man. It was a slashing, shooting, dunking machine that was beautiful to watch. What is so difficult about making this combo work though is that it requires one of two very talented and very similar players to take on a supporting role. MJ and Pippen worked because Scottie let MJ have the reins. It isn't a matter of talent, it is a matter of humility, which is something a lot of players lack - see my post about needing role players. Being the second option on a championship team should be something to aspire to, but most people want to be the star. I'll say it straight up that the SG needs to be the dominant member. It is customary for the guard to handle the ball more and it clearly worked for the Bulls. This is why I wonder if LeBron will win a title. The only other SF to have great success in recent history has been Larry Bird, and he wasn't anywhere near as ball-dominant as James. Frankly, I can't see LeBron taking a back seat to anyone, so unless they move him to the off-guard position I don't see many rings in his future. However, while the best SG in Kobe might be locked in with Pau as his running mate, Dwyane Wade is still looking. Looking at the list of free agents, we might finally have a chance at Jordan-Pippen 2.0. I don't mean Wade-LeBron either. I think Rudy Gay would be the perfect fit for this combo with Wade. He is young, athletic, but considered a second-tier player so won't have any problems giving Wade the reins. However, Wade probably is looking to emulate Kobe of late rather than Jordan, so this isn't particularly likely to happen. However, if Gay sticks around in Memphis he and OJ Mayo might have a chance at something special. If the Grizzlies drop Z-Bo after his recent off-court dramas then the bulk of the scoring will need to come from Mayo and Gay. These guys have superstars in the waiting written all over them and I truly hope this comes about. Seniority is an issue here though, the major roadblock being whether or not Mayo will be given top-dog status by Gay in this partnership. Another combination which could be hugely successful is that of Evan Turner and Andre Iguodala in Philly. The likely number 2 draft pick has a literal running mate in the uptempo Sixers outfit. Iggy is paid like a superstar but has a second option mentality. Perfect for a killer wing player like Turner. I'm drooling at the prospect. Danny Granger is another player begging for a SG to step up and be the man while he just does his thing at SF.
  

So there you have it. The tw0-man combinations I feel can lead to championship success, or at least title contention. While it appears that we are in a SF-league at the moment, dominant big men are becoming more and more important as the length of the Lakers and dominance of Dwight Howard are a roadblock any team will have to overcome in the future. It is possibilities like these that make me love the sheer intricacy and beauty of the greatest game on the planet.
Now to get some sleep before Game 5.

Cheers.

Why history might just repeat itself (in more ways than one)

I'll start off by saying that I think the Celtics have the stones to win this series and will do it. The game 2 win was indicative of why the Celtics are deadly: depth. Almost every player in their rotation is capable of stepping up and winning a game (barring defensive specialists Tony Allen and Kendrick Perkins). In game 2, Allen and Rondo stepped up to carry them through while Pierce and Garnett floundered. These days, it is rare for the Big Three + Rondo to be firing all at once. Now, I started off with this statement because the winner of the Finals isn't the focus of this post, but is a necessary cog.

While the Celtics winning would be a repeat of both recent history and what seems like ancient history, the focus here is the Finals MVP award. The same strength which makes the Celtics tough to beat over the course of a series, that unselfish play that leads to Ws is much more pronounced in 2010 than in 2008. Rondo has entered into the conversation with best PGs in the game and runs the offense so that whoever is hot gets the ball more often than not, barring predictability. There are so many guys with the hot hand in Beantown it is rare for any of them except Rondo to have the ball in their hands enough over the course of a series to take home Finals MVP.

But let us take a look who might have a chance to take it home in Boston in order of reverse probability (within reason):

1. Kevin Garnett: KG could still get hot after a subpar first two games, if he gets aggressive with Gasol on the offensive end and shoves that darn lanky European around enough he could be instrumental in winning the games. His defense would need a big boost too, because the only helpside blocks I've seen recently have been goal-tends. Of the potential Beantown winners, the Big Ticket comes in last in terms of likelihood.
2. Paul Pierce: This might ruffle some feathers, but PP has demonstrated some worrying trends of late; a simple refusal to take risks against big-bodied defenders. He was great against Orlando and Miami, but mediocre against Cleveland and so far this series. The reason? Powerful SF defenders. James and Artest are two defenders you would not want to be battling over 7 games. The Lakers are a different from 08, and if that open baseline jumpshot Pierce missed is any indication, 34 is just out of his rhythm. They do say matchups are all important right?
   
3. Ray Allen: Game 1 had me upset, because I had him tipped as a difference maker in the series; Kobe would be either run ragged chasing him, or Fisher would pose a severe mismatch which Ray 'Jesus' Allen could exploit. Then the refs went crazy and Ray Ray never really found his rhythm. But lo and behold, Jesus rose again three days later to perform a miracle. 7 straight made 3-pointers? No worries for arguably the best jump shooter in the history of the L. As the series progresses, if Ray stays out of foul trouble and the Lakers respect Boston's other big guns, Jesus could be crowned king of the Finals.
4. Rajon Rondo: I have always believed in this guy, he is my second favourite player all-time behind Jordan, and easily my favourite playing right now. I've had his jersey since late 08, and I could sense he was going to explode sooner or later. While he got the Celtics through the regular season with aplomb, he has shown himself capable of stepping up in the post-season, and has done this two years straight now. If anyone on the Cs was to win it, it would have to be Rondo, providing Boston comes away with the series. He is clearly their most valuable player in this series, and while he gets caught up in his own wake on occasion he is always a contributor. Top that off with a matchup to die for in Derek Fisher and he would be a lock against almost any other team.

But Rondo isn't playing any other team. He is playing the Lakers, who have a guy on their roster who might just be the first MVP of a losing team other than - ironically - a star shooting guard for the Lakers in Jerry West. It was the first Finals MVP given, which should give you an idea of how rare such a feat is. But as a devoted Celtics fan, and even with all the faith I have in our vaunted lineup of superstars, seeing number 24 get hot makes me panic just a little. We know that Gasol and Bynum will dominate inside, but Boston will adjust and has the personnel to reduce their impact at least, it is a realistic and attainable goal. However, the only people to keep Bryant under 30 points in the last few rounds have been the officials. Alvin Gentry thought he was relaxing his team when he said at half time "What Kobe just did there, nobody in America can stop that", and maybe he was. But he made me just a little bit terrified. Boston's D stopped LeBron with relative ease, and contained Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade on the road to the Finals to boot. Kobe blows the others away in the sheer deadliness of his offensive repertoire. He isn't just athletic and skilled, he is crafty. Two of the best players at drawing fouls in the League are playing each other in these Finals, and I've already seen Paul Pierce fall for the same move he has used countless times in his career. If ever there was a series in the modern game where a losing player could be considered the most valuable, it is this one. Most teams aren't even close to the Lakers in overall strength, and were it not for the fact that the Celtics have such a wealth of veteran talent that came together just as Kobe assembled the right supporting cast, Kobe could very easily have been looking at another 3-peat. I have enormous respect for Kobe, and I'm only just starting to realise how close he is to MJ.

So while I love Rondo to pieces and certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Celtics won and Rondo was awarded MVP given the history of the award, I wouldn't be upset if Kobe achieved another of Jerry West's accomplishments. I mean come on, the dude was so cold to Chris Rock courtside he had to get treated for frostbite. He's earned it.

Born Ready to fill some big shoes.

I'm a big believer in tapping potential, and I always seem to think I know how it should be done. Those of you who have read my previous posts will probably have picked up on this. It all started with Jordan. You see, I came too late to the NBA to see him in his prime, and after reading a biography in 10th grade I've felt robbed. Since then, I look at every 6-6 phenom with hungry eyes, longing for the Jordan for my generation. And yeah, they have to be a 6-6 SG. A point guard's first responsibility is getting his team involved, so John Wall isn't going to cut it. But perhaps his SLAM magazine running mate Lance Stephenson could. Now, don't get me wrong, the dude has dropped out of the first round after declaring too soon, but that could be the perfect situation for him.

Now, I'm sure some of you are thinking, what about Kobe? Well, I was too young for him too, but I do love seeing him do ridiculous things with a basketball nonetheless. But his time is fading, and I'm only young so I need something to sustain me! Before I even go into LeBron, the first problem is he doesn't play SG. The second is that he is just a brute. Yes he has the talent to go with his athleticism which separate him from people like Josh Smith, but something about him doesn't sit well with me.

This is where Born Ready comes in. You know how I mentioned Kobe? Well he is a big part of this too. You see, the Lakers aren't getting no lottery picks anytime soon, and Kobe can only survive so long with Shannon Brown as his backup. The Lakers have expectations, and they've pretty much always had a player considered amongst the best in the league on their side. Now, the Lakers won't likely get Stephenson with the pick they have, but they should lie, cheat or steal to get him. Lance has said he needs to work on his game, and what better role for Kobe to play than mentor for a mercurial talent like Born Ready. They've both had off-court dramas so Kobe knows where Lance is coming from with that whole assault charge deal, and if anyone can teach Lance to focus on the game it is Bryant. Sure, Lance wouldn't get many minutes while Kobe is still around, but a few years learning from the Black Mamba would do him a world of good. And if Phil Jackson doesn't jump ship, well, he certainly knows a thing or two about coaching the 2-guard position.

But wait, there is another huge reason why Stephenson would be a fit in L.A. Bynum. Bynum is the true heir to Shaq, whether Dwight likes it or not. Bynum plays like a real centre, with force and dominance on the offensive end, and while he might not be a two-time DPOY, I would argue that he holds his own against opposing centres better than Howard, who does his best work on help defense. If he could just get healthy, Bynum and Lance could emulate Kobe and Shaq circa 2000.

Lance has the sheer hard-nosed aggression to drive at a championship if his four state champs are anything to go by, and now that he has fallen from grace, he won't be concerned with being the "nice guy" like LeBron so he can focus on just playing the damn game, and what's more, people in L.A. don't much care what you do off the court as long as you win. He has handled the pressures of fame better than most in his remarkable HS career.

Despite his upside, he is a gamble. But when the gains are this high, and a second-round pick is the price, why not just roll the dice on the future?