Lottery Teams We Hardly Knew Ye 14/15: Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic

Lottery Teams We Hardly Knew Ye returns with a look at the Denver Nuggets and Orlando Magic.

I hadn't thought about it when I decided to cover these teams, but the two franchises have a lot of similarities in their past and present.

Both teams opted to trade their disgruntled superstars for a bevy of  young talent rather than let them hit free agency (Carmelo Anthony for the Nuggets and Dwight Howard for the Magic).

Both teams have seen their former franchise player struggle in their new surroundings.

Both teams fired their coach this season and went into the game with interim head coaches in charge.

Ultimately, the most pertinent similarity between these teams is that despite being loaded with young, talented players, neither one has a true star to build around and elevate them back to relevancy yet.

But let's see what they do have based on this game - which the Nuggets blew out 119 to 100 (but led by as much as 30 for large chunks of the second half).

ORLANDO

The thing that jumped out at me about the Magic in this game was that this team can't guard anybody.

I've never seen a team so inept at defending opposition players both on and off the ball.

The rotations were slow or non-existent, the perimeter guys looked like pylons and none of the Magic bigs looked like any threat to protect the rim.

The Magic were missing a few key guys, including Evan Fournier, Tobias Harris and Channing Frye, but this was as sorry a performance as I've seen for a long time.

Unlike the Nuggets, the Magic have already bottomed out and have spent the last two years racking up top-5 draft picks and blooding their young players.

However, despite the opportunities given to them, it feels like they more or less whiffed on both picks in terms of securing a superstar.

Their #2 pick in 2013, Victor Oladipo, is an undersized 2-guard who lacks a consistent jumper, a tight handle and a knack for scoring.

Don't get me wrong, there's a lot to like about Oladipo in isolation, he passes well from the shooting guard position, he plays with intensity, he's a hard-worker who doesn't complain about all the losing and he has enough athleticism to earn the nickname Mr 540.

He managed to amass a decent box-score with 21 points on 8-15 shooting, but it's deceptive because he did most of his work in the fourth quarter against the end-of-the-rotation guys Denver trotted out once the game was already decided.

When the game was still in the air the Indiana product was a no-show, unable to get easy buckets, settling for pull-up mid-range jumpers and just generally looking overmatched.

While it's too soon to give up on Oladipo as a franchise cornerstone, they desperately need someone - anyone - who can be a first option offensively and ease the burden on the second-year guard to create his own shots.

However, Elfrid Payton - aka the guy who cost Orlando a future first-round pick because Philly wanted to be jerks - showed flashes of his potential at the point.

He made smart passes, gave effort defensively with active hands (albeit in vain mostly) and wasn't shy about attacking the rim - despite getting repeatedly blocked by Denver big men.

You have to feel bad for a pass-first guy who doesn't have many shooters around him, but it will get easier for him once his jumper develops.

Nikola Vucevic, a key part of the Dwight Howard trade via Philly, seemed to be a steal for the Magic early in his career.

He put up huge rebounding numbers, showed poise and polish in the post and had the body to bang with opposition bigs without breaking a sweat.

The problem is that he's a huge liability defensively.

Vucevic lacks quick feet, long arms, timing and defensive awareness - things that are pretty important for a guy who is supposed to anchor the D.

It's too soon to give up on him as the team's starting C going forward, but if the Magic get a chance to take a guy like Karl-Anthony Towns, they should almost certainly go for it.

However, I should point out that taking Okafor would be a huge mistake, as he possesses the same weaknesses as Vucevic.

Aaron Gordon, the fourth pick in the 2014 draft was reportedly battling an illness or sorts, but looked lost when he did play.

His shooting range remains extremely limited, he isn't quite big enough to thrive as a defensive player and while he's energetic, that's not really enough for such a high pick in this draft.

I always thought Gordon got a bad rep when people dismissed his upside in the NBA, but it's just hard to see how he fits in as an undersized PF without the jump shot, refined post-game or handle to really contribute offensively.

The league is moving away from post-up power forwards and unless Gordon can make huge strides in the off-season towards playing the small forward, it seems inevitable that he won't live up to his draft position.

Best-case scenario Gordon pans out like a Kenneth Faried, getting by on hustle, rebounding and athleticism.

Looking at the roster, it's hard to see where they are going to get better without giving up on their past investments.

A star small forward who can score in bunches would be ideal, but there isn't really anyone in the lottery that fits that description.

The only SF worthy of a top-5 draft pick is Stanley Johnson, but he's similar to Gordon and Oladipo in that he's a well-rounded player, not a scorer (which is their biggest need).

Finding a power-forward who can cover some of Vucevic's weaknesses and spread the floor seems like a more realistic scenario.

If Towns is out of reach, then Kristaps Porzingis would be an ideal fit.

He stretches the floor, can protect the rim and could co-exist with Gordon, playing PF defensively and SF offensively.

If they can sort out their scoring and shooting issues with Porzingis, then this roster doesn't look too bad.

Tobias Harris is a versatile combo-forward, Channing Frye is a great veteran to have and Evan Fournier is ideal as a sixth man.

The Magic could start make the playoffs soon, but it's still hard to see them competing for a championship with this group without a Hawks-like effort from everyone on the team.

DENVER

Let me start by saying that the Nuggets were extremely impressive in this game.

However, it doesn't change the fact that the roster doesn't quite fit together.

Denver is loaded with players who are rotation guys on good teams and it was this depth that let them earn a 3-seed in the 2013 playoffs before they were bundled out by the Warriors.

But role players aren't enough without either an incredible system like the Hawks (who even then have Al Horford on the roster) or a star to bring out their best.

The problem to me is that the Nuggets are building around fundamentally flawed players in Kenneth Faried and Ty Lawson.

Faried was a great value draft-pick for the Nuggets and he looked amazing playing with the US National team last year, but it doesn't change the fact that he's undersized, lacks the ability to create his own shot, has no range on his jumper and can't protect the rim.

Faried has the athleticism to block shots, but because he needs to use his vertical leap to contest shots in the paint, it's easy to throw him off with a simple pump fake.

He wasn't able to use his quickness to play the passing lanes of his bigger opponents either and while Denver looked amazing, they were at their best with Faried on the bench.

He certainly has a place on the team, but the front office should be careful about putting too much faith in a guy whose intangible strengths can't make up for his tangible weaknesses.

Lawson went scoreless against the Magic and it highlighted his limitations when he's supposed to be a team's first or second best player.

He struggled to blow by his man, his jumper wasn't there and at his size, his ability to defend is a struggle.

He's not a natural passer, despite dishing out eight assists in this game and the offense just seemed to flow better with him off the court.

However, while most of the spoils from the Carmelo trade haven't panned out, Danilo Gallinari offers hope.

He was simply sublime tonight, using his sweet shooting stroke, surprising handle and toughness to drop 40 points on the hapless Magic.

He's the sort of player every team could use, with legitimate power forward size, both in height and build, but the offensive skills of a small forward.

He's not a great defender, but he's smart and works hard on that end.

After being hit with injury the last couple of seasons, it's great to see the Italian forward back on the court again.

Unlike the other Nuggets vets, his strengths won't fade with age or declining athleticism and at 26, he could be productive for another decade if he can stay healthy.

His contract is up next season and there will be plenty of suitors for his services, but Denver should do their best to keep him on board.

While the Magic draft picks have been low-value for their draft position, the Nuggets have done an excellent job getting the most out of their picks, with Faried and Lawson good examples.

But it's Jusuf Nurkic who has been their true draft steal.

The Bosnian rookie has the quick hands and nimble footwork to be a terror defensively.

While he fouled out in 21 minutes, it was easy to see why the team traded Mozgov to give their young C more playing time.

Despite his broad frame, Nurkic is light on his feet on both ends, with promising touch in the post for a player his age.

In a redraft of the 2014 draft it's hard to see Nurkic falling out of the top 10 now that NBA teams have seen his huge upside.

His foul count will need to come down, but he has great chemistry with Gallinari on the court and the pair make a formidable frontline going forward.

Will Barton was the other standout young player for Denver.

I've long been a fan of Barton's and kept waiting for Portland to give him a chance, but he seems to have found his niche in Denver.

The Memphis guard is the ideal sixth man, bringing energy, toughness and amazing vision.

He always seems to know where people are on the court and it was his playmaking for Gallinari in the second quarter that really broke the game open for the Nuggets.

His jumper is still a bit shaky, but certainly not broken, and his inability to put on weight is a concern, but he makes up for it with grit and surprising hops.

The 6'6 guard was a rebounding machine in college and he displayed that same knack for offensive boards against Orlando.

Barton is similar in a lot of ways to Lance Stephenson in Indiana, with similar court vision, rebounding ability, transition scoring and toughness.

But he lacks Stephenson's volatile temperament and if he doesn't get lost in the crowd of guards on the Nuggets roster he might finally live up to the hype he generated coming out of high school.

Looking forward, the Nuggets already have pieces that are critical for a rebuilding team - a centre who can anchor the team defensively and shows signs of offensive ability and a stretch power-forward.

Guards are a dime a dozen but the frontcourt is crucial.

Taking a small forward or a shooting guard with shooting range is the logical move for the Nuggets in the draft, with Hezonja, Winslow or Oubre possibilities if they don't win the lottery.

Finding a star player will remain the challenge in Denver, but if they find the right coach who can institute a more egalitarian offensive system then the team can fill the void when older teams like the Mavericks, Spurs and Grizzlies start to drop off.

Speaking of the right coach... Ettore Messina should be at the top of their wish list.

This one got away from me again, will try to cut it down next time, but I hope you enjoyed it.

Feel free to comment or disagree, I'm happy to defend my positions.

The next teams I'll be covering are Heat and Celtics on Wednesday (or Thursday for Australians).

CONCLUSION

Both teams are stuck in the NBA equivalent of no-man's land, but with the right draft picks in this year's draft, they could start building towards a Toronto Raptors level team.

In a pinch, I'd take Denver over the Magic going forward, simply because of the rarity of a player like Nurkic.

Team Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

Okay, I've been really looking forward to doing this one, so let's get stuck into it. Portland's tale of woe is well known amongst NBA fans nowadays, how they cleaned up their image and formed a core which had championship written all over it, but were cruelly struck down by injury and are now forced into yet another rebuild.

However, thanks to some questionable decisions by the Brooklyn Nets and some savvy drafting, the Blazers were able to retain pieces of their old core whilst adding high draft picks and one of the better incoming rookie classes of any NBA team. So let's see what Rip City can look forward to next season.

Guards:
The guard rotation for Portland is a youth movement, with only Wes Matthews and Ronnie Price having enough NBA experience to be called veterans. Outside of these two, Damian Lillard, Elliot Williams, Will Barton and Nolan Smith are all more or less new to the pro ranks. Wes Matthews, the undrafted wonder, is the sort of shooting guard every team would like to have, he's a hard worker, can play excellent defence, shoots the long ball consistently well (career 39% from deep) and doesn't need the ball in his hands for half of the shot-clock to get his numbers. That said, he can sometimes fall in love with his own shot, and can force tough shots at times, so ego is a slight concern. He's in a position to be a starter for this Blazers team until his contract runs out, but he's a glorified role player at best, and if the Blazers are going to improve their lot and rejoin the West's elite teams, they will need to find scoring and play-making from other positions, because Matthews can't be relied upon to create off the dribble, and open looks are hard to find in the playoffs. The other vet, Ronnie Price, will play sparingly in this young backcourt, but will provide a role model for their young guards as a guy who's been there and done that. Surprise lottery pick Damian Lillard will be immediately handed the keys to the offence, with Raymond Felton departing for the Knicks this off-season. Although I'm hesitant about Lillard's ability to thrive as a scoring point in the NBA, he's made the right start by destroying Summer League competition on his way to Co-MVP in Vegas with Josh Selby of the Grizzlies. Playing against inferior competition in his college years, nobody knows if his play in the Summer League was a sign of things to come or an anomaly. Whether he can get his team mates involved, develop some chemistry with incumbent franchise cornerstones Nicolas Batum and LaMarcus Aldridge will be a determinant of his future in the NBA; he could be a star, or just one of many athletic point guards in this generation. Either way, he's already done enough to prove he belongs in the NBA. Elliot Williams is also an unknown quantity for this team, despite two years already spent with the organisation. Unfortunate injuries have held him back from seeing significant time, but if he can stay healthy he'll likely be the first shooting guard off the bench in the early part of the season, but might lose out to second-rounder Will Barton if he doesn't impress early. Barton is a long-time favourite of mine and while I was stunned he fell as far as he did, Portland is the perfect situation for him; they have enough veterans to take the pressure off him and let him develop at his own pace, but the players ahead of him on the depth chart aren't cornerstones, and he certainly has the capacity to beat out any of their current off-guards given a bit of NBA seasoning. He was one of the best guard rebounders in college last season, despite his slender frame, and his competitive will to win is impressive. Although he's an unorthodox player right now, and needs to improve his jump shot, he's a battler who will put in the work to address those weaknesses. Most recently, Barton grabbed headlines by scoring 72 points against the likes of Brandon Jennings, Kemba Walker, Derrick Williams and other Under Armour athletes as part of the brand's promotional tour across the country. If you haven't seen the highlights yet, check them out, because although the defensive pressure wasn't NBA level, Barton clearly got under the skin of Jennings and simply scored at will, regardless of who tried to stop him. Nolan Smith is a combo guard who was surprisingly taken in the first round last season after a storied career at Duke, but he's best suited as a spark plug off the bench, and should backup Lillard at the point for lack of an alternate on the roster.

Small Forwards:
Although he tried to escape to the north this off-season, Nicolas Batum is once again a Trail Blazer after they matched his deal, and will take the lion's share of the minutes at the 3, with little depth behind him. Now that he's inked the new contract, the pressure is on Batum to improve his scoring output, continue his defensive excellence and provide leadership for the younger members of the squad. Batum should look no further than Luol Deng for inspiration; Deng has made a career of stingy defence and picking his moments to score with his smooth jumper, despite lacking a particularly tight handle. Batum has excellent size, a nice shooting stroke and great mobility, but he can be indecisive with the ball in his hands and lacks the confidence in his offensive game to take chances at times. If Batum wants to be a star, as he recently told the press, he can start by showing more self-belief. Backing up Batum will be Luke Babbitt. Babbitt was the 16th pick a few years back, but has failed to break into the rotation before now, with Batum and Gerald Wallace ahead of him on the depth chart, but with Wallace gone and Batum starting full-time, the position of backup SF is there for the taking if Babbitt has the drive to take it. He'll provide the outside shooting that saw him taken in the first round, but it's unlikely he'll bring much else to the table this season. Luckily, there isn't too much pressure and he can develop at his own pace. With Craig Smith off to Israel this season, there's a good chance the Blazers will sign another SF before the start of the season, and if rumours are to be believed, former 3rd overall pick Adam Morrison could be that guy. Morrison was supposed to be the second coming of Larry Bird, but a tough loss in college killed his spirit, and the fire that made him a star in college was never really seen in the pros. This is his last chance to stick on an NBA team, and for his sake I hope he can. If not, he'll just have to be satisfied with the two championship rings he earned while a part of LA's benchwarming unit.

Bigs:
The frontcourt is where Portland's future lies, with All-NBA power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, incoming rookie Meyers Leonard, J.J. Hickson, Jared Jeffries and new import Joel Freeland making up the rotation. Aldridge is the reluctant face of the franchise, a mobile seven-footer who has a smooth jumper, great defensive timing and a versatile offensive skill-set. However, while he flourished in Roy's absence recently, once the novelty of having all the shots he wanted wore off, Aldridge's intensity wore off, as the constant double teams and pressure got to him. That said, at his best, he's the best two-way power forward in the NBA, and with a new coach, a new aura of optimism in Rip City, Aldridge, now 27, will be entering his prime years at just the right time. Whether he can continue to elevate his game and embrace the pressure of being a franchise player will be a determinant of his place as the NBA's best power forward, or the most underrated. Joining Aldridge is Meyers Leonard. The freakishly athletic Leonard is extremely mobile for his size, has great length, and is surprisingly capable with the ball in his hands. That said, he is still raw offensively and has a tendency to coast, rather than assert himself on the block and use his size and strength to dominate games. Luckily, Leonard landed alongside a premier scoring big man, and his role will be to defend, rebound and run the floor, and if he can do these things in his rookie year it will be a success. As Aldridge ages and Leonard develops there's a good chance they can maintain a dominant presence inside between the two of them for many years to come. J.J. Hickson is an athletic beast, and despite bouncing around a few teams in the aftermath of Lebron's Decision, he seems to have found a niche in Portland as a scoring big man off the bench, with his ability to make tremendous athletic plays giving him an immediate edge against the majority of bench bigs in the NBA. That said, he's traditionally played his best in extended minutes, and whether he can produce in limited minutes will be a question that needs to be addressed before the season's end, when he'll be up for another contract. Jared Jeffries is a defensive specialist, and at the very least he'll be able to mentor Meyers Leonard on that side of the ball and provide minutes off the bench or as a starter without disturbing team chemistry. Joel Freeland was a player many thought would never make it to the NBA, but he's finally arrived, and while he's not going to turn the franchise around, he's a big body who's had plenty of experience playing professional basketball, despite being new to the NBA. The Blazers will likely take a "centre by committee" approach this season, with Leonard, Jeffries and Freeland all sharing minutes, as none of them is capable of extended play at the 5 for various reasons (age and offensive ability chief among them).

Interesting Storylines:
Whether the Blazers new point guard will put his License to Lillard to good use is going to be worth watching as the season progresses, but to me the most interesting storyline comes from the bench mob. With sixth man extraordinaire Jamal Crawford gone to LaLa-land, the role of bench scorer is up for grabs, with a number of worthy candidates in Barton, Smith and Williams. However, only one of these guys will be given the responsibility of putting up numbers off the bench, and with no precedent to fall back on given the relative inexperience of the group, this is a role that will be determined solely by merit. If I were a betting man, I'd go all-in on Barton cementing himself as first guard off the bench by season's end, but only time will tell.

Season Prospectus:
The Blazers have bottomed out as much as they can afford to with Alridge's peak years beginning now, so tanking another season to secure a high lottery pick isn't an option. However, the playoffs are likely out of reach, so Coach Stotts needs to use this season to install his systems, teach these guys how to win and prepare for a serious playoff push when his young team has another year of seasoning under their belts. Aldridge is too good a player for the Blazers to go much lower than 10th in a deep Western Conference, but if they can develop their young players and win 35-40 games this will be a successful year for a franchise and city that desperately needs a win.

Next up, Phoenix Suns.