Saturday, March 17, 2012

Trades, backstabs, loyalty and waivers.

While March Madness has been wildly disappointing for me thus far with both Memphis and UCONN being knocked out in the first round, denying us a matchup between Drummond and Davis in college, the NBA made up for it by going H.A.M. trying to shake things up.

So after a long absence in posting I've got some time to break down every single trade deadline move. Without further ado, let's get stuck in.

Three team trade with Nuggets, Wizards and Clippers;
  • Wizards get: Nene, Brian Cook, Clippers' 2015 2nd round pick, Clippers get: Nick Young, Nuggets get: Ronnie Turiaf, Javale McGee.
  • For the Wizards; this was a genius move; they lose two knuckleheads and return a veteran PF/C who should provide some veteran leadership. He's hit a rough patch lately, but Nene is going to be invaluable for a team like Washington; he runs the floor well, can score in the post and doesn't need a lot of touches to be effective. Brian Cook is a nice throw-in too.
  • For the Clippers; they lost out on signing J.R. Smith, but Young is a dead-eye shooter who really fills a team need for the Clippers during their stretch run into the playoffs. If CP3 can keep him in line and get him to defend then Young might be able to secure the starting 2-guard spot beyond this season. It's a win-win for Lob City, because they gave up very little and gained a potentially high-rewarding player. What's that about one man's trash?
  • For the Nuggets; this is a bit of a head scratcher, and to be honest I'm disappointed. Javale McGee isn't going to be any less of a bonehead in Denver, and Nene did a rare thing in re-signing with the Nuggets over teams like Indiana who could have used his services. This was a decision for the future and to save money, but it's sad to see a guy like Nene get banished to the Wizards after showing some loyalty.

Rockets get Camby and Fisher from Blazers and Lakers;

  • Rockets get: 2012 1st-round pick, Derek Fisher, Marcus Camby, Lakers get; Jordan Hill, Blazers get; Jonny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet and Houston's 2nd-round pick.
  • For the Rockets; bit of a head-scratcher really, but they shed the salary of Thabeet, gain a late-first rounder and some veterans at key positions. Hill wasn't getting enough minutes, Flynn was a third-string PG and Thabeet was a massive bust. They didn't gain a whole lot, but didn't lose much either, Rockets are seeminly active for the sake of it sometimes.
  • For the Lakers; they get a young, athletic PF/C who can backup Bynum and still has room to develop. They needed athleticism desperately, and Hill forms a great athletic frontcourt off the bench alongside McRoberts. Once Pau moves on Hill could pair with Bynum at the 4 spot, so this was a no-brainer.
  • For the Blazers; I really liked these moves, they gained a young shotblocking C who should fit in well alongside Aldridge without giving up a young asset, whilst also adding a PG in Flynn who could be the answer to their problem at the 1; he's undersized, but can still succeed in the NBA despite a tough run with injury.

Blazers fire head coach Nate McMillan;

  • This was big, but entirely necessary. Nate would be a great coach for a team of veterans who rely on stifling D and half-court execution, but this is a young, hungry team which needs to get out and run to avoid getting blown out so often. Sometimes you just need a new voice in the lockerroom, and although Nate should be sitting on a ring or two had Roy and Oden remained healthy, he had a good run and will find a new home soon I dare say.

Nets get Gerald Wallace from Portland;

  • Nets get: Gerald Wallace, Blazers get: Mehmet Okur, Shawne Williams and top-3 protected 2012 1st-round draft pick.
  • For the Blazers; Another savvy move by the Blazers, they get a decent back-up C in Okur, a role player in Williams, and most importantly, a likely lottery pick in a stacked draft. Portland may have just traded their way into landing a Beal, Rivers or Lamb to fill their 2-guard spot with a shot-creator. An added bonus of this trade is that it opens up minutes for Batum at his natural small forward, which is good news for all parties, as Batum is a versatile scorer who defends like a maniac.
  • For the Nets; Another head-scratcher for the Nets, they are desperately trying to win-now, but whilst Wallace is a great pick-up for this team, they are likely to lose Deron Williams in free agency and have just traded away another high draft pick for an older player. With Howard opting in, the Nets have shot themselves in the foot by taking such a huge gamble on Williams staying.

Lakers get Ramon Sessions from the Cavaliers;

  • Lakers get: Ramon Sessions, Christian Eyenga, Cavaliers get; Luke Walton, Jason Kapono, Dallas' 2012 1st-round pick.
  • For the Lakers; another home-run for the Lakers, who now have a promising, young PG in Sessions to replace Fisher, and a super-athletic 2-guard off the bench to replace the spark-plug that was Shannon Brown. Oh, and all they had to give up was bench-warmer Jason Kapono, grossly overpaid Luke Walton, and a late first-round pick. I swear Kupchak is using some sort of voodoo on opposition GMs!
  • For the Cavaliers; they get a big expiring contract in Walton, a cheap sharp-shooter in Kapono and a late-first round pick. Actually a good move for the Cavs, as that pick will be valuable for a team on the rebuild in this stacked draft.

Indiana Pacers acquire Leandro Barbosa from Toronto;

  • Pacers get: Leandro Barbosa, Toronto get: 2nd-round pick.
  • Makes sense for both sides; Toronto is looking to get younger and shed salary, and Pacers get a great bench scorer for their playoff run. Bad news for Lance Stephenson though.

Warriors trade Stephen Jackson to Spurs for Richard Jefferson;

  • Warriors get: Richard Jefferson, Spurs' conditional 1st round pick, T.J. Ford Spurs get; Stephen Jackson.
  • For the Warriors; they get a veteran small forward to pair with Wright and lose a bad lockerroom presence in Jackson. The first-round pick is great too, as there is a lot of value to be had in this draft. Ford is retiring, so won't have an impact either way.
  • For the Spurs; Jackson fits in well in San Antonio, and as the Spurs gear up for a final push for a ring, Jackson could be the difference between making the WCF or losing in the first round.

Memphis trades Sam Young to Sixers;

  • Sixers get: Sam Young, Memphis gets: Rights to Ricky Sanchez.
  • Not likely to make an impact either way, but Young provides nice insurance should Iguodala get traded in the offseason.

Bucks-Warriors deal;

  • Warriors get: Andrew Bogut, Stephen Jackson, Bucks get; Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, Kwame Brown.
  • For the Warriors; Golden State has been looking to trade Monta for years, and getting a former 1st-overall pick in Bogut is pretty good value, glass bones aside. If Bogut can stay healthy then Warriors will push for a playoff spot next season. Losing Monta also gives rookie Klay Thompson more minutes to shine, as he's produced in limited minutes and gives the Warrior size in the backcourt for the first time since Jackson and Davis were running the show. Losing Udoh was unpopular, but he's too old to have so far to go in terms of reaching his potential and Mark Jackson wants to win now. Kwame is just a throw in.
  • For the Bucks; they get a shot-blocker who can actually stay on the floor in Udoh, but gain an undersized volume shooter in Ellis which makes the Bucks the shortest 1-2 combo in the NBA. It's possible this move was to prepare for the departure of Brandon Jennings, as Livingston and Ellis would be the right size for your backcourt, and there have been rumblings about Jennings leaving lately.

Blazers waive Greg Oden;

  • The great Oden era is over in Portland, to the benefit of every stressed out Portland fan waiting for Greg to shatter into a million pieces again. Good move for both sides, Oden is no longer burdened with the hopes of a passionate fan base and the incompetent training staff, and Portland gets to embrace the rebuild. Hopefully Oden sees reason and goes to Phoenix for the veteran's minimum, because if he ever has a chance at playing in the NBA, it's most likely to happen with the Suns and their miracle workers- I mean medical staff. That said, Boston should look at signing him to a one year deal to shore up their big men department, he'd be low-risk for the right price and still has a very high ceiling if he can just stay healthy.

Rockets waive Terrence Williams;

  • A poor man's Lebron James, Williams is a multi-talented G/F with a superstar mentality, ridiculous athleticism and a shaky jumpshot. Not the most promising package, but now that he's free to choose his own fate, he could find minutes with a team like Charlotte which desperately needs a small-forward and a bit of athleticism. He could break out with his third NBA-team, because he's still relatively young and can produce if given the minutes. No loss for the Rockets because they have a wealth of SFs with Morris, Budinger and Parsons all in the fold.

Dwight Howard opts in;

  • This is the big one. After half a season of insanity, Howard takes a look at his team's current record after a big win over the Heat and decides he can stick around another year. If the Magic can catch fire in the playoffs they could scare a team without elite big men like Miami, Indiana and Atlanta in the second round. However, beyond wanting to see the season through, Howard's decision drastically increases his chances of sticking around, given that a number of the Magic's awful contracts come off the books at the end of the 2013 season, which gives Orlando an opportunity to put a team together more to Dwight's liking, unlike their situation right now, where they are way over the cap and with little flexibility. At the end of the day, the rumour mill is going to turn next season too, but until the 2012-2013 season, Orlando and Dwight can just focus on playing basketball, which should make a nice change. As far as markets go, Orlando isn't a bad place to be, especially with the amazing new arena which is the new gold-standard for the NBA, so it really comes down to what Otis Smith can do to surround Dwight with talent.

If I've missed any trades or moves let me know, but those are my thoughts on the 2012 NBA trade deadline.




Monday, March 5, 2012

Don't forget about Andre

With all the hoopla about Anthony Davis' amazing statistics - and I use the words statistics instead of play deliberately - people are forgetting about Andre the friendly giant. In the world of ESPN highlights being the basis for so many people's opinions of players you can imagine why Dre goes under the radar; there's nothing sexy about a kid playing like a kid and putting up freshman numbers.

However, in our stats-obsessed world, people too often forget to just look at a prospect play the game and analyse their strengths and weaknesses. The so-called eye test is often foregone in favour of checking box-scores. Now, I've made my feelings about Davis clear on this blog before, so this article will try to focus on my man Andre, not to hype him up unfairly, just an informed opinion of who he is now, what I think he'll be in the future, and why he's going to make whoever passes on him very foolish. I've seen Drummond play a few times over the course of the year, the most relevant being games against Georgetown, and more recently, against Pittsburgh.

Let's start with the Georgetown game. I'm not much of a stat-head, and the game was a while ago, but there were a few things I noticed about Drummond. First off, when he's allowed to isolate against his man in the low post, he can get buckets through sheer size and strength alone. Secondly, his footwork in the post isn't as bad as it's made out to be. The first ten minutes or so of this game Drummond was fed the ball on the block and repeatedly backed his man down, he was so dominant and unstoppable against a man-to-man defensive scheme that Georgetown swapped to a zone and subsequently doubled him every time he got the ball. That stretch of play just screamed NBA C to me, I could just imagine him being surrounded by NBA quality shooters and punishing his opponents if he's allowed to go 1v1. The wide open spaces of the NBA would do wonders for him, especially the defensive 3-second rule. He also displayed a good instinct for rebounding, but lost interest in the game once he was no longer being fed the ball. I will say this though, if I were Drummond, and I'd had so much success scoring early, only to have my guards spend the remainder of the game jacking up jump shots, I'd lose interest too. The UConn offence isn't really designed for Drummond to be much of a scorer, and this particular squad really lacks a true point, with both Napier and Boatright playing more like undersize 2-guards. I have to make a mention of Davis here, because he plays for a coach who knows how to get his big guys easy buckets, and his teammates are a lot more willing to share the ball than Drummond's. UConn would lose that game, and the adjustment to compensate for Drummond was a big part of the reason why in my opinion.

Moving on to the game I watched today, the game against Pittsburgh, and a few things immediately jumped out at me. Firstly, that Drummond has great timing on his shot-blocking, there was a sequence where he repeatedly denied the Pitt big man under the rim, and his length is astounding. Secondly, he shows very little interest in fighting for offensive rebounds if you body him up, defensively he'll pull down the boards, but he seems to content to be pushed out of the paint when Lamb or Napier clang another shot off the iron. At the very least he'll be an engaged defender at the next level, because he seems to take pride in protecting the rim. His agility is also uncanny for someone his size; on a few occasions he was picking up the point guard on the perimeter, and he was able to move laterally so well that the smaller players would be intimidated and ignore the mismatch. He had one enormous block where he shuffled alongside the driver only to rise up behind him and smack it against the board at precisely the right moment. Like I said, his timing is great, and it's not just under the rim. In a strange turn of events, he decided to stalk down the PG from behind on one possession, and with a deceptively long stride and reach he simply knocked it out of his opponent's hands. The nonchalant manner in which he did it made me shake my head at just how good this kid could be. He'd be a terror defending the pick and roll at the pro level, as he'd had no qualms just switching onto the PG. However, like in the Georgetown game, he wasn't featured much in the offence, and the opportunities for him to score in the post were limited. However, he did display great vision when passing out of the post, often finding open jump shooters on touch passes; if anything, Andre is unselfish to a fault, and for the most part would pass the ball before looking for his own shot. This aspect of his game reminds me somewhat of Greg Monroe of the Detroit Pistons, a guy who has a great skill-set, but also a high basketball IQ who you can run your offence through in the post. That said, as the game wore on, and he was overlooked in the post a number of times, he would lose interest in establishing position, and looked to score off a back-door pass rather than creating his own shot. The regularity with which he was doing this suggested it was by design, and using a player of Drummond's skill in this way leads me to further question Calhoun's ability to use big men offensively at the college level beyond lobs and dunks.

To sum up, Andre is still going to be the best player out of this freshman class in my opinion. So many aspects of his game are tailor-made for the NBA, and his deficiencies are just as much a result of the UConn offence as any permanent mark against him. For all the praise Anthony Davis receives for his shot-blocking prowess, in the games I've seen him play, he spends a lot of time camped under the rim, blocking the shots of guards who are already being pressured by Kentucky's excellent perimeter D into forcing the shot. With the defensive three-second rule coming into play in the NBA, I can see Davis struggling to be anywhere near as effective as he is in college, whereas UConn plays a more pro-style man defence, so the jump to the pros should be an easier adjustment for Drummond. Overall, Andre Drummond should be viewed as a high risk-high reward prospect going forward, but only because he needs to go to team which knows how to use big men appropriately. If any player is susceptible to busting due to circumstance, it'll be Drummond, because while he could go down as an all-time great if he maximises his potential, his character on the court is team-oriented, and he won't dominate unless his coach gives him the opportunity.

Ideal destinations for Drummond would be;

· Boston (if they fell into the lottery and lucked out); Rondo is great at getting his bigs involved, and Rivers is an excellent motivator.

· New Orleans; a franchise desperate for a superstar, with Gordon unlikely to remain, and being injury prone regardless. Drummond will allow NOLA to trade away Kaman, and Dre can learn from Okafur until he's ready to start full-time. Monty Williams has proven himself to be a very capable head coach too, which is a bonus.

· Cleveland Cavaliers; Varejao is getting on in years, and Thompson is more of a PF, so Drummond would be a great partner for Irving. Jamison has seen plenty of shots in Scott's offence, which means Drummond should see a lot of the ball, which would play to his strengths.

· Brooklyn Nets; Yes, they already have Lopez and they are making a play for Dwight Howard, but Brook wasn't offered an extension, and Deron Williams would help Drummond like he helped Jefferson and Boozer get easy buckets while he played with them. Let's face it, Dwight probably won't end up in Brooklyn regardless, so it's not a big concern.

· Orlando Magic; There will most likely be a giant Dwight-sized hole in the Orlando roster, so if the Magic pull the trigger and trade him before the deadline, there's a good chance they'll fall into the lottery, and Drummond would be a perfect fit for a franchise which has a history of building around Cs.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

The King is dead... long live the Kings...

No, this isn't a post about the self-proclaimed King, rather about the Sacramento Kings, and their current situation. A win against the Lakers was nice, but in two games there has been little to no consistency with the number of shots taken by certain players, or the minutes played, or even who is running the point guard position. I know, it's only two games, but it's also been a couple of seasons under Paul Westphal and he has neither the respect of his players or seemingly the willingness to dub either Tyreke, Cousins or Thornton as the clear first option, rather choosing to let the players run wild so to speak, and preventing them gaining a rhythm. This wasn't so much of a problem in Tyreke's rookie year, where it was obvious that he was the man, but since the talented and more experienced Thornton has entered the fray the lines have become blurred. Cousins only complicates the problem further.

Those of you who watched the remarkable OKC-MIN game would have noticed the startling change from last season, Adelman had his players motivated and defending to the best of their ability. The people who watched the Wolves play the Bucks would have also seen how different they were without Adelman on the sidelines. The moral of the story being this; a bad record doesn't indicate a bad team, sometimes it just comes down to bad coaching or a bad coaching fit, and everything I see in the Kings feels the same way. The sooner they do away with Westphal the better, and with the right coach they could actually take positive steps with all that talent, provided the players buy into the new coach's philosophy.

So let's take a look at the candidates in no particular order;

1. Mike Woodson
To me, Woodson was hard done by when he was unceremoniously booted from the Atlanta Hawks for having them hovering around the 50-win mark for the last few seasons of his tenure. How dare he take a team of talented youngsters and teach them how to play as a team! The state of the Hawks when Woodson took over bear similarities to this young Kings team. They were very talented but inconsistent and saw a gradual improvement under Woodson's care. A consistent approach from a coach who stresses fundamentals and good defensive play like Woodson would do wonders for the Kings. It also doesn't hurt that he has a knack for relating to younger players and was well respected by his team during his tenure in Atlanta. A massive shift in power is taking place in the Western Conference, with powerhouses like the Spurs, Lakers and Mavericks seemingly taking backward steps. In two to three years the transition from young to old will be complete, and if the right coach doesn't develop these players the Kings will miss out and be forced to start rebuilding all over again. Now, to quote Chris Rock "He won't get you to the promised land, but he'll get you to the playoffs, which is good enough". Like Doug Collins paved the way for Phil Jackson in Chicago, so too will Woodson prepare his young charges for a championship run by instilling them with good fundamentals and hard work.

2. Jeff Van Gundy
A coach who knows a thing or two about winning games in a lockout shortened season, as evidenced by his run to the Finals with the 98-99 Knicks, Jeff has expressed an interest in coaching again, and with his protege Mark Jackson finally given a shot at a head coaching position, it might be time for the mentor to do the same. Van Gundy brings a great pedigree and a thorough understanding of how the game of basketball should be played, which is something a number of Kings players have struggled with in the past. While I confess I'm not too familiar with Van Gundy's system, you can't argue with results, and his teams have always been competitive, which is what the fans in Sacramento need.

3. Brian Shaw
Shaw served his time as an assistant coach under Phil Jackson and was the man many expected to take over from the Zen Master when he retired. However, Dr Buss decided to go in another direction and the Lakers were left with Grimac- I mean Mike Brown. While Shaw is unproven as a head coach, he's a young ex-player who knows the triangle intimately, and when you look at the Kings roster, they have all the pieces there to be very successful with that system. You have the star SG in Tyreke Evans, whose passing ability will come to the fore and help him emulate his predecessors Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan as focal points of the triangle. There is rookie Jimmer Fredette who is a sharp-shooter in the mould of Steve Kerr with more moves, and Marcus Thornton is a similarly gifted combo guard. Finally, the requisite big man in DeMarcus Cousins whose skill-set and brute force would allow him to combine some of the best attributes of previous post players to run the triangle in Shaq and Gasol, although obviously Shaq is inimitable. However, the biggest case for this system is that they lack a true point guard and the triangle removes the need for one whilst providing the young Kings with more structure in both spacing and movement off the ball. For these reasons and more, Shaw would be an upgrade over Westphal.

4. Phil Jackson
I know, I know, he's retired. We've heard that before though, and look at the results - two more rings. As nice as it would be for Shaw to be given a chance to work the magic of the triangle, no coach has ever implemented it as successfully as the thoroughly unique Phil Jackson. While the system is important, with young players sporting attitudes which can be deemed questionable at the very least, Jackson's ability to get player to buy into his philosophy using his Zen Master voodoo is what truly sets him apart from any coach before or since he came along. However, this is a wildly unrealistic hire given Jackson's age and retired status, but if he ever changes his mind, a damn near perfect roster for his needs will be waiting for him.

So there you have it, the list of coaches I think would be best suited to replace the underachieving Westphal in Sactown. While they all have their faults - although some have nothing to do with ability - each one would be an improvement over the current King. The ideal situation, if we are talking absolute best case scenario would be for Woodson to prepare this team for a few years and have a rejuvenated Jackson/Winter combo take the reigns. Whatever the case, the Sacramento Kings are in dire need of a revolution, and Westphal's should be the first head to roll.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

The Dark Knight

I know I wrote a post about rookie PG Brandon Knight a few months back, when the lockout was fresh, but so much has happened since then that he's almost completely dropped off the radar. With all the talk of incoming rookie PGs Ricky Rubio, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker and even, dare I say it, Jimmer Fredette, many people have forgotten about the next in a line of great Calipari point guards; Brandon Knight. Really, the more I think about it, the more I can't figure out why. Let's take a look back at his amazing achievements to date and see if we can perhaps understand why he's dropped off the radar so suddenly.

Knight had an illustrious high school career, which was capped off with back-to-back selections as Gatorade National Player of the Year, joining only a handful of players (including Lebron James) to win it as a junior in high school. His stats for that junior year? 31.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 3 steals per game. Despite all this, he was overlooked as top player in his class in favour of players like Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Kyrie Irving and even Josh Selby by the time he graduated. It's possible that he peaked too soon, or that he didn't dunk enough (which is somewhat true) and couldn't stay on top in the AAU world we lived in.

With all the accolades of high school (including about every type of All-American you could imagine) behind him, Knight was set for stardom in following John Wall to Kentucky and succeeding Tyreke Evans and Derrick Rose as Calipari-coached PGs. It was apparent from the get-go that the freshman was going to be a one-and-done, as he overcame his early struggles to quickly become a leader of the young Wildcats. He did more than just lead, he put up some damn fine numbers too; with averages of 17.3ppg, 4.1apg and 4rpg while shooting 42% from the floor, 37.7% from deep and 79% from the charity line in the 38 games played.

Stats aside, he also led the Wildcats to the SEC championship, and the Final Four of the 2011 NCAA tournament. His great run with the Wildcats included a memorable performance against Harrison Barnes and the Tar Heels in the Elite Eight, with the two of them trading clutch makes from deep down the stretch. Ultimately, Knight would prevail over the number one ranked player of his class, only to fall just short of glory by facing the eventual champions UConn led by Kemba Walker. Bearing in mind that John Wall and Demarcus Cousins could only get to the Elite Eight, despite arguably a deeper team which was certainly more talented, Knight's accomplishments stand for themselves. And yet, and yet...

The pre-draft frenzy came along after the Finals, and it seemed certain that Knight would be a top-five pick; Utah needed a long-term prospect to replace the departed Deron Williams, Cleveland could take Derrick Williams first and require a point, and Toronto surely wouldn't pass up on the opportunity to finally get a young, athletic PG to replace Calderon? However, the top-5 picks came in and a surprising move to grab Thompson 4th overall by the Cavaliers left promising big-man Valanciunas available for the Raptors, whose need for a true inside presence was too strong for them to take Knight. The Wizards selected 6th, but they had Wall to run the point, and as good as Brandon was, Wall was coming off an amazing year, despite his injuries. Somehow, the Bobcats found themselves with the 7th and 9th picks, and a chance to replace the underwhelming Augustin with a cold-blooded scorer with star potential in Knight. Knight was being hyped as a possible 3rd overall pick, and amazingly, was there at 7.

However, MJ decided to lock up Bismack Biyombo instead, certain he'd found a winner (I'm still shaking my head at this one), and finally, Knight was taken 8th overall by the Pistons. Jordan would go on to select Kemba Walker with the 9th pick. Despite this, I figured Knight had ended up in a good situation after all; new ownership was incoming, the Pistons had young talent in Daye, Monroe and Jerebko, and Stuckey looked to be on the way out. At the time, I thought Brandon might just have a shot at ROY, with the minutes and responsibility he'd get.

Then the lockout happened, and unlike some of the less-grounded players in the NBA, Knight put his head down and carried on killing it in the classroom, because they couldn't lock him out of there. Nary a peep was heard of him for the whole lockout, and consequently he just slipped the minds of many. When the lockout ended, people turned their attention to those aforementioned rookie PGs, leaving Knight on an island seemingly by himself.

Detroit fans should rejoice though, because while he not be as flashy as Rubio, as accomplished as Kemba, as popular as Fredette or hyped as Irving, over the games I saw of him, there were flashes of a quiet, cold, passion driving Knight which makes you think that when all is said and done, he'll emerge from the shadows as a basketball hero for the city of Detroit. To paraphrase the Batman film, Knight might not be the flashy, ratings-boosting hero they need after the horrors of the economic recession, the Kuester era and the terrible BG/CV signings, but he's the hero they deserve; the hard worker, the quiet assassin, the dark knight.

Forget him at your peril.

Saturday, November 26, 2011

A new dawn is breaking

A new dawn is breaking, and with it, a new CBA. We don't know the details of the NBA deal yet, but rest assured, if it weren't ratified the NBA would explode.

Events like this are a mixed blessing for bloggers, after months of anticipation, the pressure has built up to the point where there are too many things to say in just one post. You only get one though. My first thought was to do a hasty set of preseason predictions, but those can wait. I could do a top-something of things I'm glad to have back, but those things will all have been overshadowed by the NBA being back at all and will be self-apparent to boot.

Instead, I think I'll take a different stance and roll with a list of things most people forgot about because of the lockout, which are worth remembering. So without further ado here they are in no particular order, I'll keep going until I run out.

  • Ricky Rubio finally graces an NBA court; after years of anticipation and increasingly lowered expectations, Rubio is going to step onto the NBA hardwood under new coach Rick Adelman. With talented shooters at three of the four other positions, the pass-first PG will have the opportunity to rack up the assists in what I predict will be a Rondo-like manner. He says his shooting is the best it has been in years with the extra time off the lockout gave him, and he's my dark horse to take home ROY.
  • Beasley vs Williams; while we're on the topic of the Timberwolves, let's shift focus to Michael Beasley, who was "up to no good" during the lockout, being caught with drugs, mushing the face of a fan among other things. With Derrick Williams incoming, these two second overall picks with extremely similar games will face off; one is going to be a future face of the franchise, the other is going to be in Adelman's doghouse and likely to be traded. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out, but Williams is my bet given his youth and work ethic.

  • Will Jeff stay Green? Danny Ainge trading starting C Kendrick Perkins for SF Jeff Green was a wildly unpopular move in the eyes of some Celtics fans, and even moreso because he is soon to be a free agent. Rumours have circulated that the talented combo-forward wants to show the Boston faithful he was worth it, but they might get outpriced by teams with more caproom who are willing to spend. His decision could make or break the Celtics season.

  • Kemba or DJ? The Bobcats find themselves in a tricky situation with incoming rookie Kemba Walker playing the same position as another member of their young core in DJ Augustin. MJ will have to make a call soon, because Kemba is experienced enough to not need a whole lot of seasoning, and should be ready to be a leader in the NBA right now. Word on the street is MJ has had it with DJ.

  • Bismack Biyombo; his miraculous rise up the draft boards after one good game against a bunch of high school players stunned the basketball world, before they promptly forgot about him. I've been scouring the news for the past 148 or so days for anything NBA related and not once has Biyombo crossed my path. He was drafted as an extremely raw prospect with amazing physical abilities, but taking him at 7 remains a gamble and I made my feelings on the matter clear.

  • While usual suspect for trouble Michael Beasley was up to his old tricks, another troubled player with megawatt talent kept his nose clean. That player was Lance Stephenson. The rugged guard from Lincoln HS and Cincinatti has been laying low in Indiana, working out, and I have it from a reliable source who's met him a few times that he is noticeably more mature. He once graced the cover of SLAM magazine with former 1st overall pick and franchise face John Wall, but was relegated to the second round after an unimpressive stint in college and off-the-court dramas. Things didn't get any better once he made it to the NBA, as off-court issues kept him in the doghouse, with the Pacers unwilling to jeopardise their clean image until the legal proceedings were resolved. With a fresh season, Stephenson is given a fresh start to help the Pacers and work his way into the rotation. Larry Legend calls him the most talented player on the roster, so let's see if he can get some burn.

  • Nick Young or Jordan Crawford? The Wizards' two-guards both had impressive seasons, but were most effective playing without the other. Washington is forced into a tough decision, to pick their home-grown shooter in Young, or the more versatile Crawford to pair with John Wall in the backcourt.

  • Will Kyrie Irving start? It's usually a given that the first overall pick will start on his new team, but like second pick Williams, he's facing competition from an older player. For Irving it's Baron Davis, who will likely spend the season mentoring Irving with reduced minutes. That said, the division of those minutes and who gets the symbolic nod from Byron Scott is worth keeping an eye on.

  • Where in the world will Greg Oden end up? It's probably an indication of the weakness of this free agent class, but Oden is probably the best chance you'll get to land a franchise changing player, if you can keep him on the court that is. His health problems make the supremely talented and still young Oden a gamble for the Blazers or whoever else wishes to bid for his services. If Phoenix hadn't landed Gortat I'd have bet on him ending up there in the hopes that their legendary medical staff would get him right, but for now it's a mystery.

  • What position will Sacramento star Tyreke Evans play? They drafted another combo guard in Jimmer to pair with Reke in the backcourt, so the question remains whether Tyreke will shift to a more scoring mentality or continue to distribute while Jimmer goes off the ball.

  • Mark Jackson is finally in the coaches box; after years of lobbying from fans of the earthbound former PG, he's finally at the helm of a team and has the unenviable task of reforming the Warriors into a respectable team. The Warriors have just drafted rookie Jeremy Tyler who I'm a fan of, so I hope things go well for Jackson.

  • What happens in Denver? They ended the season with incredible depth after the Carmelo trade, until most of it walked away to China. Karl is left to replace the minutes of Chandler, Smith and Martin with incoming rookies Jordan Hamilton and Kenneth Faried. Look for Hamilton to play a lot of SF for the Nuggets to replace the players who went east and be a surprise candidate for ROY.

  • Who backs up Luis Scola? Houston have brought in Kevin McHale to replace Rick Adelman, and now must decide which of the three young post prospects they want him to mould into their PF for the future. Finesse rookie Motiejunas, reliable Patterson or the athletic Hill. There's no question that Scola will start barring injury, this much we know at least.

  • While we are in Houston, who do they tab to replace the recently retired Yao Ming? It's a tossup between moulding Hill into a C, or McHale attempting to teach Hasheem Thabeet how to play basketball. I'm guessing they'll stick with Thabeet given his potential as a defender, but don't expect any miracles.

  • What is to become of Flynn? He was traded to the Rockets, but will fight for playing time against other young players Lowry and Dragic. I see him being relegated to a role off the bench as second string PG to provide a scoring punch.

  • Where to now for former stars Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady? Both of them are getting a bit long in the tooth and are on their last legs. A move to the Suns didn't help Carter find his groove again, but McGrady proved he could still contribute at the NBA level. The SG spot in Chicago appears to be there for the taking, I'm betting the two of them will both attempt to sell themselves in a chance to get that sweet ring before retiring.
  • With new ownership, can the Pistons finally begin their rebuild? Incoming rookie Brandon Knight looks set to take the starting spot from the disappointing Rodney Stuckey, Greg Monroe was a revelation last season, Jonas Jerebko is healthy again and Austin Daye is promising as a younger version of Tayshaun Prince. However, the two-guard remains a worry, and the bad stink that is Charlie Villanueva is still hanging around to steal minutes. Hopefully, Lawrence Frank can forge this team into a more competitive product.

  • Evan Turner; it seems to be a trend in recent years that second overall picks will disappoint (Durant being a marvellous exception). It all started with Darko, then Beasley, Thabeet and finally, Evan Turner. The former NPOY in the college ranks wasn't comfortable in the NBA from the first whistle of Summer League until the end of the season. There were flashes, but with the deepest draft in years looming, Turner will need to show a marked improvement from a disappointing rookie year to remain a part of this franchise's future.

  • Is Bayless finally getting a shot? The forgotten man of the 2008 draft class, Bayless has bounced around from team to team without the chance to run the point full-time, and Toronto was no exception last season. With a possible amnesty clause giving Toronto a chance to divest themselves of Jose Calderon and give Bayless his shot, the former Summer League MVP is on his last chance to assert himself as a player to build around for the young Raptors.

  • Speaking of forgotten men, will Gerald Henderson finally be able to put it all together? The athletic but injury-riddled SG is going to be leaned upon heavily this season with the departure of Stephen Jackson. Outside of Corey Maggette and Kemba Walker, the Bobcats will be in desperate need of players who can create their own shots. Like many young players Henderson must face the prospect of being replaced by a younger model, with a number of young prospects at the SG position in Barnes, Lamb and Beal likely to declare for the draft this season and the Bobcats rebuilding. He has shown the ability to be clutch, is ultra-athletic and a respectable shooter, but his upside is questionable after a few seasons in the system. I was ready to replace him with Alec Burks in the 2011 draft, but still want him to find his way.

  • Can Enes Kanter still ball? It's been years since Kanter played a competitive game of basketball given the lockout and his eligibility issues at Kentucky, but after being taken third overall in the draft, the Turkish big man must fight his way into a crowded Utah rotation featuring former 3rd overall pick Derrick Favors, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson. That much rust might be difficult for a young player to shake off in limited minutes.

  • Is Josh Smith's move to SF permanent? Moving Josh Smith to the SF position reaped rewards for the Atlanta Hawks, as they beat out Orlando in the first round and tested the Bulls in the second, but he's played much of his career at the 4 (to my dismay) and the Hawks might shift him back there if they can't find a better C in free agency to allow Horford to play his natural 4.

  • Will Westbrook continue to take ill-advised jumpers down the stretch of close games, or will he finally trust Durant under enormous public pressure to do just that. I love Westbrook, but he's also one of the most frustrating players to watch, and bad decision making by Russ was directly linked with losing close games against the Mavs in the playoffs.

So those are the more obscure storylines to pursue this season off the top of my head, I hope they gave you something to look forward to outside of the big questions for the next season. This is a great day, it took all I had not to post this in entirely capital letters, but I thought I'd spare you all that on this joyous occasion.

Today I don't care about Heat, Celtics, Lakers or even the Mavericks, I'd hug a fan of any of them in recognition of the relief felt by us all, regardless of affiliation.

Enjoy this moment my friends, we stepped back from the abyss.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Prospect Watch; First impressions.

As promised, a bit of a recap of a few prospects I've got my eye on and who were shown on ESPN over here in the last week or so.

Harrison Barnes:
The only game I saw was UNC vs the Spartans, but from what I saw I was disappointed. Barnes had few, if any, drives to the basket, successful or otherwise, so for all this talk that he'd worked on his handle over the summer he still lacks the confidence to go by his man to the rim. However, his jumper was sweet as ever, and he nailed a nice turnaround in the first few minutes. As it was, Roy Williams tabbed the big men as the go-to guys and Barnes wasn't getting a whole lot of shots. Given that Michigan State was packing the paint this could have had an effect, but as big a fan as I am, I'm somewhat disappointed. We'll see if he gains confidence in his handle as the season wears on.

John Henson:
When I look at Henson I'm reminded of Kevin Garnett circa 10-11 season. He has that skinny frame which will prevent him being a low-post beast, but he has some nice finesse moves around the bucket like KG and showed an improved jumper. Of course, the main comparison comes from his capacity to anchor a defence and make every slasher and big guy think twice about shooting in the paint while John is in the same area code (which is all the time with that huge wingspan). Best of all? He does it without fouling. That said, he's not going to be a superstar like the KG of old, but he could have a solid career playing a role like the old KG.

Tyler Zeller:
Won't say much here except I think he'll struggle to score at the next level. He got pushed around a LOT, had no impact defensively and was outhustled for rebounds on numerous occasions. I expect him to be a late first-rounder, and could be a decent back-up C in the NBA.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist:
Saw him play a couple of exhibition games but most importantly I got to see MKG face off against the Kansas Jayhawks. While he didn't blow you away with his stats, he was certainly a leader out there, and there was a tangible difference in the attitude of the Wildcats when he was on the floor. He showed a capacity to finish in the paint through contact and you get the feeling he could put up more numbers if required. His decision-making is what impressed me the most though, as he always made sound decisions and set up team-mates indirectly for scoring opportunities. He was trying too hard to shoot the jumper and prove he could make it, but despite his ugly form the percentage isn't terrible. There are definitely flashes of Andre Iguodala in his game, and he certainly has the potential to be a point forward at the next level. His intangibles are amazing, and I get the feeling the Wildcats might actually win it all this season. If they do, MKG will be a BIG part of it.

Anthony Davis:
Very raw offensively, scored mainly on the break. His handle held up surprisingly well in the open court, but he's definitely a PF at the next level, certainly wouldn't be able to blow by NBA SFs with his level of quickness. Was good defensively, but didn't wow me like Henson. He'll have great numbers against inferior competition, but I get the feeling he'll have huge dips in production against quality bigs.

Marquis Teague:
I won't say much about him except that if he's the best PG prospect in the country then the run of amazing PGs has finally ended. He seems far too hot and cold out there, forces things too often and gets visibly upset when he's subbed out of the game. Needs to calm down and learn to use his speed more effectively. Did have a nice dunk though.

Terrence Jones:
Struggled to finish around the rim on occasion and while he was more active he didn't seem to have added that fluidity to his handle to be able to consistently beat his defender off the dribble. His position at the next level remains up in the air, but his attitude gives some hope.

Thomas Robinson:
Got himself into foul trouble, but was a man amongst boys when he was out there. Had a double-double I believe and was simply a beast on the boards. His offensive game is raw, but he would be a high-level role player at the next level for his rebounding and ability to score without needing plays run for him.

Jared Sullinger:
Saw him play against Florida and he ran a clinic on how to create for your team-mates without even touching the ball. The Gators were so focused on stopping him that he was able to move off the ball and draw multiple players, and thereby create scoring opportunities. When he did get the ball in the post he was able to get to the line almost every time and shot a good percentage. I don't see him as a franchise talent necessarily, but could be the best player on a well put together team and contend for a championship. Very fundamentally sound, but needs to continue to improve his athleticism.

Bradley Beal:
Against OSU I first thought he was overrated, but as the game wore on he improved. Got his shot blocked in the paint a number of times though, and his shooting wasn't quite on, but flashes of a great player are there so I'll wait before making a more definite judgement.

Will Barton:
Big fan of Will Barton so was very excited to see him play against a Belmont team which came just short against Duke prior to this matchup. Unfortunately, it looks like he's gained only negligible weight over the break and remains something of a beanpole, but this is something that can be fixed in the pros. In the early going he wasn't being very aggressive and despite making a ridiculous midrange floater he was being overshadowed by team-mate Wesley Witherspoon. However, when Wes got into foul trouble and the game wore on Barton came to life. He started being more aggressive and attacking the rim. He was very efficient inside the three-point line, and ended up having over 20 points. He also pulled down some key boards down the stretch and was a nuisance defensively with that long wingspan. He has definitely made strides in both attitude and ability since his freshman year and could sneak into lottery contention in this coming draft should he choose to declare. The makings of a superstar are there, he just needs to gain some muscle and refine his jumpshot.

Adonis Thomas:
Struggled somewhat early on, as is to be expected, but made key plays down the stretch. He and Barton are listed at the same height, but Thomas' physique makes him seem a few inches taller. He's simply incredibly well put together. Showed nice form on his jump shot and will be a key contributor for the Tigers off the bench. Might be a one and done prospect on potential, but could probably do with a second year in college.

Joe Jackson:
Showed nice scoring touch, especially in the open court and had one outstanding dunk. Hard to see him starting at the point in the NBA, but would be the perfect back-up to provide a scoring punch off the bench at the next level.

Wesley Witherspoon:
Looked like absolutely taking over the game before getting into foul trouble, and definitely shows flashes of being a quality stretch-PF in the NBA. Could spend some time at the 3, but seems wholly different to the Wesley Witherspoon I saw last season and may just have figured it all out in time to declare for the draft. Should be a late first-round pick in most drafts, but given the possible depth in the 2012 draft he might slip into the second round.

Josiah Turner:
Absolutely failed to meet expectations. For a so-called "pure" point guard he didn't create for others very well and struggled to finish at the rim. However, he did show the ability to get to the basket at least, which is a good sign. But from all accounts since the game against Valpo things have gone downhill for him.

So, that turned out to be more than a "few" but I figured even a few fringe players deserved some love. Overall, I'm warming to college ball, even if there is too much zone being played and too many teams to really keep track of.

A few things for the uninitiated to look out for;

1) Perry Jones III returns from suspension; Quincy Miller has assumed top dog status in his absence, but if Jones is serious about being a superstar at the next level he should have no problems taking back the reins. Should be interesting either way.

2) C.J. Leslie's return from suspension; the NC State player already made his debut and was very effective in a tight loss to Villanova, if I recall correctly. He was hyped as a lottery pick coming out of high school, so we'll see if he can breakout this season. Early signs indicate he might just do that.

3) UConn marches on; didn't get a chance to watch them yet, but they remain undefeated and Lamb has looked like a contender for the NPoY thus far. Drummond had a slow start, but logged 11 offensive rebounds in one game! Once he gets that mask off the beast will be let out of its cage.

4) Washington on the upswing; with Abdul Gaddy, Tony Wroten and Terrence Ross sporting nicknames like Stealth, GPS and NASA, respectively, it's not hard to see why they are flying under the radar. However, the three of them have formed a potent back-court rotation, with sharp-shooting Wilcox rounding them out. The Huskies are a team to watch come tournament time, and are a sleeper to make the Elite Eight in my opinion. You heard it here first.

Well that'll be all, I'd better get some sleep before my exam tomorrow morning.

Cheers.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Hiatus over baby, let's get back into it.

I know, I know, we all hoped we could have a little closure by this point; either we'd have a deal, or the season would be cancelled. Despite this, we are another six hours away from the resumption of meetings. But I said the hiatus would be over, and so it is. Given that the college season is the only thing we can count on these days, let's have a bit of a draft flavour for this one, and take a look at my top 5 prospects for next season, and those that are over- and underrated.

Top Prospects:

5. Quincy Miller: I know, I know, he missed his entire senior season with a torn ACL, but from all accounts, he's well and truly healthy now, and his combination of size, length, skill and swagger make him a potential franchise player. They don't call him Baby KD for nothing, and people are sleeping on him majorly if they don't think he's a top 5 prospect.

4. Jared Sullinger: Yes, he lacks elite athleticism, but that hardly stopped Kevin Love from becoming an All-Star (although I still take issue with this), and Sullinger's wide frame and strength make his post-up repertoire a deadly weapon. He isn't the sort to carry a franchise, but he's one of the most reliable prospects out there; you really know what you're getting with Sullinger. At the very least he's a scoring option on the block with leadership qualities and no misconceptions of being a perimeter player.

3. Perry Jones III: This ranking has probably surprised a lot of people, because it means either Davis, Barnes or Drummond isn't making my top 5. However, when I look at Jones, I see a more physically developed, equally skilled version of Anthony Davis. He possesses the same knack for the perimeter game, but with a year of college experience under his belt and ridiculous physical tools thrown into the mix. Yes, he had a bit of an up and down season as a freshman, but so did Barnes, and people are willing to give him another chance too. He made the right decision to come back to college after being ruled ineligible, showing signs of increased maturity. Literally the only thing holding him back is his own desire to dominate, and perhaps his inability to compete in the tail end of last season will light that fire. Bottom line, he remains the prospect with the second highest ceiling in this draft, and that alone makes him worthy of a top-three pick.

2. Harrison Barnes: I really wanted to put Barnes number one. For my regular readers, you know I've been high on him all throughout last season, and with an increased focus on ball-handling and creating his own shot, the favourite for the Wooden award cannot be overlooked as a potential first overall pick. While he had his freshman struggles, after he was fed the rock more consistently I defy you to find a player who delivered quite so well in the final moments of big games as Barnes. While the early signs aren't great (his numbers weren't eye-popping in UNC exhibition games), Barnes is first and foremost a shooter, and it's likely to take him a little time to find his rhythm, to shake off the rust. Then you have to factor in his mature demeanour, incredible work ethic and defensive acumen. While he isn't an athlete on the level of a Lebron James, he has just the right amount to get the job done when combined with his prototypical small-forward frame and skill-set. I'd be hard-pressed to find a player who is deadlier once he's found a rhythm, and nothing keeps a player in rhythm like the grind of an 82-game season. Mark my words, this kid will be a star.

1. Andre Drummond: Reading the glowing review I'd just given Barnes, you'd have to double-check if I was crazy to only have him second in any other draft. But this draft will more than likely have Andre Drummond. Remember when I said Perry Jones III had the second-highest ceiling in this draft? Well this guy's ceiling is the sky. He combines prototypical NBA center size with amazing athleticism. Oh, and that's before you've seen the guy dribble the ball. If you look back on his high school career you'll see images of Andre picking the pocket of guards to start his own break, or going to coast to coast and throwing it down, splitting defenders along the way. That's not all, he can pass too. While he might be a little flashy, you have to love a big man who makes the right passes, even if there are a few wrong ones thrown in. Offensively, he can face up, and will learn how to dominate inside from Jim Calhoun at UCONN. Drummond had the option to forgo a year of college and jump straight to pros, but made the decision to join the defending champions and test himself against stronger competition. His only problem has been a question of motor, but it's hard to be motivated when you're literally head and shoulders above the competition. Being challenged in the NCAA should raise his ire, and people will forget about his "motor problems". For too long Dwight Howard has been the undisputed top dog at the C position... well he'd better watch his back, because there's a husky nipping at his heels. Sic 'im Dre.

Overrated:

1. Anthony Davis: I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid on this kid. I can't quite put my finger on it, but I think people are making too big a deal about his sudden growth spurt. Yes, he's very athletic, but not enough to play the small forward at the next level in my opinion, and his post-up game is too raw for a player who will be a power forward at the next level. His high motor will serve him well, but at best I see him as an elite defender who won't be able to carry a team to any great success as the 1st option, which his unimpressive high school record demonstrates.

2. James McAdoo: McAdoo is certainly a physical specimen, but while he has a great post-up game he simply doesn't have the height to use it effectively against NBA power forwards, and doesn't have the perimeter skills to make it at the 3. This is all just personal opinion, but undersized PFs don't do it for me. If you put McAdoo's offensive game in Anthony Davis' body, you'd have a great prospect, but you can't have it all.

Dishonourable mentions; Josiah Turner, Austin Rivers

Underrated:

1. Terrence Jones: Somehow, in all the commotion of Barnes, Sullinger and the other Jones returning to the NCAA, people forgot about Terrence Jones. He burst out of the gate as a freshman on a Kentucky team trying to live up to the John Wall-led Wildcats of a year before, and almost succeeded. Until things started to go downhill, and the freshman struggles set in. However, he had the chance to be a lottery pick and turned it down to return to Coach Cal and be one of the best players in college. From all accounts he has whipped his body into shape so that he can shed the "tweener" tag and be a legitimate combo-forward, with the quickness to play both ends on the perimeter, and the size and length to operate on the low block. Given his 52 points in the Blue-White scrimmage, early signs indicate he succeeded. A lot of people are sleeping on Jones, but something tells me he'll eclipse every player in the new group of vaunted Kentucky recruits and might just crack the top 5 in the 2012 draft.

2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: Lock-down defender, non-stop motor and a freak athlete. These are the ways you could describe Kidd-Gilchrist. But look beyond his funky shooting style, or his elite handle (or lack thereof) and see the player who simply energizes his team when he's on the court. The only word which can truly capture Michael is winner. Simply put, whatever you need, he'll get it done. He might not have eye-popping statistics as a freshman at Kentucky, with the amount scoring already present, but he'll make it count with the Ws. The kid has been in the spotlight since his freshman year, and survived to remain one of the top prospects coming out of high school. He never stopped working, and never stopped winning. I believe in Kidd-Gilchrist, and whichever team he falls to will be pleasantly surprised at the immediate impact he'll have on their culture.

Honourable mentions; Tony Wroten, Myck Kabongo

Feels good to be posting about basketball again without a cloud of gloom over my head, so I hope you'll forgive me if things are a little sloppy. Like Barnes, I just need a little time to shake off the rust.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Temporary Hiatus.

Things have been dead around here since the draft, and it's partly my fault. Every time I sat down to write a post, whether it was on Beasley's latesy off-court mishap, or even a post about redemption stories amongst the NBA in the past, and for the future, I got too down having to write "if we have a season" at least once every paragraph.

With all this lock-out nonsense seeming just as far from resolved as ever, I'm going to go on hiatus until the NCAA season is closer to recommencing, or the NBA lock-out is resolved. Until then, I'll keep posting links to my lock-out beard photos on facebook (50+ days and still going strong), and hoping against hope that all this summer ball players are playing will remind them what it's really about; the game, and will soften their stance somewhat.

Cheers.

Sunday, August 14, 2011

What doesn't kill me can only make me stronger... to a point.

As if the challenges facing NBA athletes looking to become all-time greats aren't great enough already, that little truth called injury often rears its head to bar the way to greatness. Now, there are two sorts of injuries; chronic injuries, and freak injuries. While chronic injuries are by far the more frequent, the old adage "what doesn't kill me can only make me stronger" has some merit in relation to freak injuries. Often times, a once off, severe injury can have a positive impact on a player's career.

Take a look at Michael Jordan; in his first season, MJ was on top of the world, killing it on and off the court, and whilst he was already competitive, it took a season more or less missed on the sidelines in his sophomore campaign for MJ to really appreciate the game, and develop that hunger to win. As we know, this injury was a once off, and the time he spent on the bench didn't just cause a rift with management who were trying to limit his minutes, but also kindled the rage within him at his own impotence in the face of injury which carried him until his first retirement. I believe it's healthy for a player who's extremely physically gifted like Mike was to learn early on that his body can fail him, and to give him a look at basketball from afar to see whether it's just a job or a way of life. Of course, it's easy to point at someone like Michael Jordan and say, this aspect of his career is why he was successful, but there have been other examples of players who had a one-time injury who came back stronger, and hungrier.

Which brings me to my next example, Blake Griffin. Yes, he's only just completed his rookie season after red-shirting for a year, but what a rookie season. When you watch Blake on the court, you notice his dunks; but his relentless energy on both ends and hunger for the ball are more impressive. The guy just never stops working. It's not hard to point to a year spent on the sidelines, learning the game without playing it, yearning to step back onto the hardwood as a prime motivator in Blake's energy, especially on a team like the Clippers. Thankfully, his injury isn't due to a chronic problem, and was a freak accident.

My final example is Dwyane Wade. Having already won a ring and Finals MVP, it would have been easy to point to Wade as a player who could rest on his laurels somewhat. However, losing the 07-08 season to injury was a blessing in disguise. Wade came back with a vengeance, and his determination to prove he hadn't lost a step took him to greater heights than ever before, with Dwyane taking home his first scoring title. Today, he's arguably the best scorer in the game, and some (myself included) would say the best player period. Once again, a single serious injury can reinvigorate a basketball player and take him to new heights, and there are other examples out there.

If Michael, Blake and Dwyane benefited from a once-off injury to serve as a motivator, there are countless others who have been beaten down by injury one too many times and lost that aggression, that instinct, which is why having your player go down for an injury can be beneficial, a constant stream of nagging injuries can completely break them.

Friday, June 24, 2011

The draft bust; a study of arrogance.

I ran through a gamut of emotions today as I watched the NBA draft, from disppointment at the Kyrie Irving pick, to dismay at the Tristan Thompson pick, to disbelief that Brandon Knight was available to the Bobcats, followed by abject horror when Bismack Biyombo was called with the 7th pick, proving that MJ clearly hasn't learned his lesson.

Now, I'm not saying Biyombo will definitely be a bust, but all the likely signs point to it. When was the last time a raw, outstanding physical specimen from outside the US tapped into that talent and dominated. Oh that's right, it's never really happened. The great Centers in the past have always had a great degree of skill coming into the NBA, not simply athletic capabilities. It made me wonder why - WHY - GMs and draft teams don't learn from their mistakes and look at whether the guy can actually play basketball. A week or so after Biyombo went "one-against-none and lost" he was the seventh pick in the draft. You'd think with the Thabeet fiasco in Memphis that people would be going off the idea of offensively limited big men, but no.

So there I was, thinking about it, and it hit me. It all comes down to arrogance. When GMs see a guy with great physical tools from the Congo or some other country who can't play basketball to save their life, they assume it's because they weren't coached the right way, that it was a matter of situation not talent which left them with very little skill outside of being tall with a great wingspan. NBA GMs and coaches need to rethink this approach; if a player is raw, it's because he doesn't love the game and didn't work on his skills. Look at Serge Ibaka, he played with cardboard in his shoes to save his feet from being burned; that's a player who's shown dedication to the game and was worthy of a first-round pick.

However, I see a guy like Biyombo, or Thabeet getting drafted so high and I think we forget sometimes that these guys are basketball players first, and athletes second. I think we should almost do away with the term potential, and simply replace it with athleticism, because if a player doesn't have basketball skills by age 19 or 20, he probably never will. Now, that isn't to say he can't learn, but I'm a 20 year old myself, and I've played basketball all my life, yet I'm nowhere near good enough to play in the NBA, I can't see why it should matter if I were taller or more athletic, given that those things don't change the core fact that I'm not skilled enough to be a professional basketballer. In this age of highlight-reel funks and the like, fundamentals simply aren't valued. Good post defense isn't as respected as weak-side shot-blocking.

The converse of this is that there are a number of great basketball players who have grown up in the US who while athletic and long and similar to a player like Biyombo in every way athletically, aren't given the same arrogant appraisal that "I could fix this player". Take for example Hassan Whiteside, he played college for Marshall, and had great measurables and shot-blocking ability but slipped out of the first round. He would likely outplay Biyombo straight up on both ends of the floor, and has better size, but the mystique of an "untapped talent" outweighs the proven capabilties of actual basketball players.

So players like Lighty, Hansborough, Greg Smith are left in the cold in favour of foreign prospects who have more "upside", except that all they really have is more work to do to lay the foundations of good fundamental basketball skills. I think Michael Jordan and the Bobcats made a big mistake taking Biyombo instead of Brandon Knight, and it's just because of the arrogant patriotic attidude of NBA coaches that they could do what any foreign coach can't in bringing out some never-before-seen stardom in a prospect that quite frankly, is terrible at basketball.

For the sake of these college players who suffer the label of being "maxed out" as a result of playing in actual systems and learning the game of basketball properly instead of taking short-cuts, I hope Biyombo is a bust, and GMs around the NBA learn to look at fundamental basketball skills before "upside".